Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairhope, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 150740 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The forecast area remains situated between a ridge building into the Desert Southwest and the subtropical ridge just to our east. Between these two areas, a shortwave remains in place over the Mississippi Valley. This keeps the area in southwest flow aloft, with plentiful moisture continuing to filter into the area. At the surface, weak southerly flow persists across much of the region, with a boundary draping from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. We'll maintain mostly clear skies through the remainder of the predawn hours, with lows in the lower 70s.

The aforementioned shortwave will amplify during the day, digging southward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Several weaker shortwaves will eject from its base, lifting northeastward and providing additional forcing aloft. The abundance of moisture in place, along with outflows from convection to our north and the seabreeze, will allow for thunderstorms to develop later this morning. Coverage is expected to be relatively high, given the airmass in place and little subsidence to limit CI, with higher chances during the afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for Monday, though coverage of storms may be a tad higher on Monday, as the shortwave slowly moves eastward and amplifies. Given a lack of organization each day, storms will be pulse in nature, with gusty winds up to 50 mph and perhaps small hail in any storms can maintain a strong enough updraft.

The pattern remains a bit messy heading into mid week, as the shortwave continues its slow progression eastward. By Tuesday night, this shortwave will become absorbed in the longwave pattern, with the ridges to our west and east maintaining their hold. Another shortwave will move into the Central Plains Tuesday night, moving eastward through the northern CONUS. The surface pattern will change very little, keeping the steady flow of moisture into the region.
Precip chances for Tuesday and Wednesday are a challenge, as there remains a lack of surface forcing. Despite the lack of surface forcing, it's reasonable to expect mesoscale boundaries to allow for CI during our peak heating. Like the days before, given little subsidence, once storms develop, those outflows will likely generate additional outflows for storms to develop along as well. So, numerous to widespread storms are expected once again Tuesday and Wednesday.

The trough will move through the region on Thursday, as the ridge to the west strengthens and moves eastward. High PoPs were maintained, though confidence is pretty low for the latter half of the workweek.
Previous guidance suggested the ridge to our west strengthening and moving eastward by the end of the week, and that solution has been pushed back a day or two. Latest guidance holds off on pushing the ridge eastward until late Friday and into Saturday. So, the forecast is based on the trough maintaining some influence on the pattern and the moisture in place. The ridge does look to build into the area by the weekend, with drier conditions taking hold. Unfortunately, hotter temps will also accompany the ridge and we may need to look at heat products by late in the week.

As far as temperatures through the period, seasonably hot conditions will persist, with highs warming to around 90 and overnight lows falling into the 70s. We'll approach the mid 90s next weekend and heat indices will approach advisory criteria. Something we'll have to monitor over the coming days. /73
Show more