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Marine Weather and Tides Belle Fontaine, AL Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:43AM

Sunset 7:11PM

Sunday March 29, 2020 12:24 PM CDT (17:24 UTC)

Moonrise 9:57AM

Moonset 12:00AM

Illumination 31%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine, AL

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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL

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FXUS64 KMOB 291149 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 649 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Pre-frontal trof of surface low pressure has settled across the area with a skinny band of sprinkles along it. The main front will approach the forecast area mid morning and bring a small chance of shra/perhaps a few tsra mainly over the interior. MVFR cig bases this AM are expected to lift to VFR bases into the afternoon. After a brief period of patchy br this morning, vsby ok by and after 13Z. Wind light. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 405 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/ . Surface analysis shows a deep closed low moving up across the upper Mid-West with an attendant cold front aligned southward over the Lower MS River Valley to off the TX coast. Ahead of the front, the beginning of the shift was active with regard to deep convection to our north with supercells having a history of depositing large hail and producing damaging winds over east-central portions of MS as storms move northeast. Line of storms was now moving across northern AL. The front continues east this morning entering the northwest zones by after daybreak, crossing the I-65 corridor by early this afternoon. There is still a small chance of thunderstorms this morning over the northwest zones. As the best dynamics for convective support lift out, a weakening/decreasing coverage trend is likely to occur with more east to southeast progression. This is supported by current radar trends and high resolution guidance. As the upper trough quickly moves off to the northeast, the front settles south and begins to stall off the northern Gulf coast tonight. Dry conditions will move in behind the front with better rain chances returning in the short term.

Given how weak the front is, don't expect much of a cool down. In fact a few areas mainly southeast of I-65 and perhaps to the coast could see highs today close to or potentially breaking records. Today's highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s northwest of I-65 and along the coast with mid to upper 80s southeast of the interstate. Similar numbers for Monday. Overnight lows mid 50s interior to lower to mid 60s southern zones.

High risk of rip currents will as continue through today. /10/03

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/ . An upper trof over the southern/central Plains advances into the eastern states through Tuesday while an associated surface low near the Red River valley zips quickly eastward across the central Gulf coast states and moves to near the coast of South Carolina by early Tuesday evening. A weak warm front will have formed over the southern portion of the forecast area early Monday evening and lifts slowly northward into central Alabama by early Tuesday morning as the surface low advances into central Mississippi. As the surface low continues eastward, this system brings a cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front, a region of deep layer lift shifts eastward across the forecast area beginning early Tuesday morning then shifts east of the area in the afternoon as the upper trof continues further into the eastern states. MLCAPE values increase to near 500 J/kg over much of the area by mid Tuesday morning then increase further to 500-1000 J/kg roughly along and east of I-65 by early Tuesday afternoon while instability diminishes further to the west. The fairly quick movement of the surface low/upper trof results in the best instability shifting east of the area in the afternoon hours. A southwesterly 850 mb flow of 35-40 knots turns westerly Tuesday morning and diminishes through the afternoon and will produce 0-1 km Helicity values of 100-150 m2/s2 through mid morning which then tapers quickly off later in the morning through the early afternoon.

This environment will support the potential for strong to potentially severe storms shifting eastward across much of the area beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing through remainder of the morning hours, potentially lingering into the early afternoon hours over the western Florida panhandle and a portion of south central Alabama before ending. Damaging wind gusts look to be the primary severe threat although can't entirely rule out a brief tornado or large hail instance. The Storm Prediction Center has a Day 2 Marginal Risk over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama which will mainly occur during the early morning hours on Tuesday. SPC has a Day 3 Marginal to Slight Risk for our area, with the Slight Risk generally over the central and eastern portions of the area which lines up fairly well with where the better instability will be present. Will have pops increasing Monday night to likely/categorical over southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama with chance pops further to the east. Have gone with Likely to categorical pops for the entire area Tuesday morning, then chance to likely pops follow for the eastern half of the area early Tuesday afternoon (lesser pops further to the west) before tapering off to dry conditions over the entire area by early Tuesday evening. Lows Monday night range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday range from the upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 40s well inland to the lower 50s elsewhere. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/ . Cooler and dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds into and drifts east across the area in the wake of Tuesdays cold frontal passage. The low level ridge axis moves east of the area Friday into Friday night, as another cold front moves toward the area from the west. with this, a moistening return flow likely develops toward the end of the extended period, which could allow POPs to trend upward again Friday into Saturday. We have maintained the low end POPs, mainly isolated showers, to portions of the forecast area Friday through Saturday. As mentioned, a little cooler during the extended period, with daytime highs mainly in the 70s. Nighttime lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night, then mainly in the lower to upper 50s Thursday and Friday nights, maybe even remaining in the lower 60s along the immediate coast each of those nights. /12

MARINE . A weak front settles southward and stalls over the marine area tonight. A brief light offshore flow expected north of the boundary before transitioning to onshore Monday. By Tuesday, a moderate to strong southwest flow and building seas develops ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead of and along the front on Tuesday. In the wake of the frontal passage, a moderate offshore flow sets up Tuesday night. High pressure builds east, north of the marine area Wednesday and Thursday. Winds to show a decreasing trend and seas subside late in the period. /10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MBPA1	3 mi	54 min		79°F				69°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL	6 mi	54 min	ESE 4.1 G 5.1	82°F	76°F		1020.1 hPa
PTOA1	8 mi	54 min		79°F				64°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL	10 mi	54 min		84°F	69°F		1019.9 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL	11 mi	174 min	S 4.1	73°F			1019.3 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL	17 mi	99 min		80°F			1020 hPa	74°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL	18 mi	174 min	SSW 9.9	77°F			1020 hPa
WBYA1	18 mi	54 min			79°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL	22 mi	84 min	SSW 8.9 G 11	78°F			1020 hPa (+1.3)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS	23 mi	99 min	N 6	73°F			1022 hPa	63°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL	24 mi	60 min	SW 11 G 12	78°F			1020.1 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS	29 mi	60 min			75°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS	33 mi	54 min	NW 1.9 G 5.1	76°F			1020 hPa
PPTA1	35 mi	174 min		79°F			1020.7 hPa
42067 - USM3M02	44 mi	84 min	SSW 9.7 G 12	75°F		3 ft	1020 hPa (+1.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy	45 mi	34 min	SSW 7.8 G 12	77°F	78°F	3 ft	1020.5 hPa	75°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL	48 mi	54 min	S 6 G 8.9	78°F	77°F		1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL

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Last 24hr

S11 G15

S10 G14

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S8 G12

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S6 G11

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SW4 G7

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N4 G7

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1 day ago

S8 G16

SE5 G9

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2 days ago

S7 G10

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S6 G11

SW4 G8

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SW4 G7

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SW5 G9

S6 G11

SW6 G9

S9 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL	5 mi	31 min	ENE 8	10.00 mi	Fair	82°F	64°F	56%	1020.1 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL	11 mi	28 min	Var 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	83°F	63°F	51%	1019.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL	14 mi	49 min	SSW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	81°F	71°F	74%	1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFM

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)

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S10 G17

SE13 G18

SE11 G18

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Calm

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1 day ago

SE12

SE10 G17

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2 days ago

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S7

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S9 G14

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Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31)

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Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL

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Gulf Stream Current

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