LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Tuesday morning begins off with another cool and refreshing start for many but this will be short lived as dew points steadily then climb throughout the day as the moisture envelope in association with a tropical disturbance drifting northward from the Bay of Campeche through the far western Gulf of Mexico advances inland across the region. The latest NHC tropical weather outlook gives this disturbance a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next few days. This system will likely have a general progression that could nearly parallel the Texas coastline through midweek before making a possible landfall somewhere from the Upper Texas coast into Louisiana. There still remains plenty of uncertainties in the forecast but at minimum expect an increase in beach and marine impacts along the coast.
Significant impacts are currently not forecast into South-Central Texas in regards to this system but any area rainfall would be dictated based on it's overall track and organization. Given that our region will be on the drier and more subsident side of this system, the most optimal solution for rain would be if the low stayed broader and on the western side of the track envelope. In contrast, a more organized and eastward track will decline our rainfall chances. The last half of Tuesday through Wednesday continues to hold the greatest rain chances, with the most areal extent of inland coverage expected on Wednesday. Daytime highs remain in the 80s and lower 90s but Wednesday looks to be the coolest of the two days.

Behind the tropical low at the end of the workweek, the forecast trends warmer and rain free with mid-level ridging establishing across the region. Highs return to the low to mid 90s for most locations while overnight lows trend mild from the upper 60s to the low to mid 70s. Low end rain chances could return into the weekend but this is mainly driven by the ECMWF guidance showing pooling tropical moisture across South Texas. Other medium range guidance is a little less bullish on this moisture and general rain chances.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with an abundance of dry air. Clear skies and north/northeast winds will also prevail.
Speeds during the afternoon period will be up to 10-15 knots tomorrow once again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 87 61 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 57 87 62 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 59 90 64 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 83 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 88 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 60 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 89 64 90 67 / 0 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.