NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KEWX 022326 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

An upper level ridge is sliding to the east as a trough moves over the Rockies. Flow over Texas has become southwesterly. The low level flow is from the east through southeast. This is bringing warm, moist air to South Central Texas. With a weak cap over the region there are isolated showers and thunderstorms moving up from the south. This activity should continue until early evening and then dissipate as we lose heating. The upper trough will continue pushing eastward tonight. A shortwave trough will move through the southwesterly flow aloft tonight and may generate convection overnight over the western half of our CWA. The southwesterly flow will continue over Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night and destabilize the atmosphere over the region. This will mean additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will be better chances over the east where moisture will be deeper. SPC has kept a marginal to slight risk for severe storms over Val Verde County during the afternoon or evening, but conditions seem more conducive for severe development farther northwest.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Synopsis: The long term period will begin with mean troughing situated over central portions of the CONUS, bounded by a pair of Rex Blocks off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Surface cyclogenesis will commence across the Dakotas through the conclusion of the short term/beginning of the long term period as the aforementioned trough axis progresses northeast from the Great Basin vicinity. The newly- developed surface low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast on Wednesday, reaching the southwestern shores of the Hudson Bay Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwest out of the low pressure center, progressing into the area on Thursday morning. The boundary will gradually push through the region through Thursday night, ultimately exiting to the south and west by early Friday morning. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly over eastern locations, in advance of the front on Wednesday afternoon, in addition to along and behind the boundary on Thursday and Friday afternoon. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall and attendant flooding remain possible in these storms, particularly on Thursday when greater convective coverage is forecast. Rain chances should begin to fall off from east to west Friday afternoon through Saturday as a secondary push of northerly winds & drier air become established regionally. Cooler high temperatures and precip-free conditions will prevail through the weekend and into the beginning of next week as east-northeast winds will persist across the area.

Wednesday: A prefrontal regime marked by south/southeast surface winds and muggy boundary layer dew points will remain entrenched areawide with the cold front still well to our north. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly along and east of the I- 35 Corridor during the afternoon hours as Gulf moisture surges north toward the front. Coverage will likely remain scattered in nature, though high precipitable water values ranging between 1.50-2.00" will support efficient rainfall rates in storms that do develop. We thus can't rule out a few isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding in thunderstorms developing along/east of I-35 Wednesday afternoon and evening. The Weather Prediction Center continues to carry a marginal (level 1/4) risk of excessive rainfall across these locations.

Thursday: Expect storms to be more numerous and widespread across all of South-Central Texas as the cold front enters and pushes through the region. Anomalously high low level moisture will continue to pool along/ahead of the encroaching boundary, with the latest ensemble progs suggesting that 1.75-2.00"+ (1-1.5 standard deviations above the climatological mean) precipitable water values will be common in the prefrontal environment. Efficient rainfall rates & locally heavy rainfall potential will thus continue in Thursday's storms. Storm motions should remain progressive, though parallel alignment between westerly flow aloft and the slowly- progressing east-west surface frontal zone will support some potential for training cells. Isolated flooding potential will exist in any areas experiencing said training, particularly in low-lying areas that are sensitive to heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center continues to carry a slight (level 2/4) risk across the vast majority of South-Central Texas in light of this potential.

Friday Through Saturday Morning: Expect some additional lighter & more scattered showers/thunderstorms with post-frontal, overrunning flow continuing between 925 and 850 mb. Expect that said activity will begin to diminish rapidly from northeast to southwest moving into Saturday as a secondary surge of higher surface pressures & drier air pushes in from the northeast. Flooding is not a concern in this activity.

Remainder Of The Weekend: A few scattered showers may continue over the Rio Grande Plains through Sunday morning, otherwise a dry forecast prevails. High temperatures will remain cool with east- northeast winds persisting behind the front. Some locations over Hill Country and the southern Edwards Plateau may remain in the upper 60s on both Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Scattered light showers will remain in the vicinity of SAT/SSF for the next few hours before dissipating. A period of VFR conditions is seen this evening before MVFR ceilings build across all sites overnight into Tuesday morning. Brief IFR conditions may be seen at DRT/SAT/SSF near sunrise. VFR conditions return to all sites late morning or early afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across all of South-Central Texas in the afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 93 70 94 74 / 0 10 40 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 69 94 74 / 10 10 40 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 72 94 75 / 20 10 40 50 Burnet Muni Airport 89 70 91 74 / 0 0 30 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 76 94 77 / 40 30 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 69 93 74 / 0 0 30 40 Hondo Muni Airport 84 72 91 74 / 40 20 40 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 69 94 74 / 10 10 40 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 71 91 75 / 10 10 50 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 73 91 76 / 20 10 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 90 74 93 77 / 30 10 40 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Texas,