Sunrise 7:00 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:43 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 160737 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Early morning surface analysis places a Pacific front (really a dryline) across the Edwards Plateau and it is slowly advancing eastward. Just ahead of this surface boundary, some upper level lift/divergence is helping spark some very light returns on radar across northern portions of the Hill Country. These light showers and an isolated rumble of thunder will remain possible through much of the morning as the surface boundary continues to slowly push east. Otherwise, a cloudy morning can be expected for south-central Texas with some patches of fog/mist also possible, mainly across southern portions of the Hill Country and the southern Edwards Plateau.

The front/dryline will stall across the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon with temperatures to the west rising well into the 90s and temperatures to the east only managing the mid 80s due to the moist airmass in place. On the contrary, moisture will be severely lacking to the west of the boundary, though winds are expected to be light. As long as winds to not exceed what is forecast, we can likely get by without needing to issue a Fire Danger Statement.

Then overnight into Wednesday, the front/dryline will retreat back to the west with widespread low level cloud cover redeveloping, with a chance for some patchy fog/mist across much of the eastern half of the CWA The dryline is not expected to push very far east during the day Wednesday, though temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 80s to upper 90s across south-central Texas regardless. PoPs are not currently in the forecast for Wednesday, but we will need to monitor the low potential for an isolated storm or two to develop off the dryline during the afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A compact upper level low is forecast to briefly pinch off across Baja California Wednesday and Wednesday night, then open and dampen across south Texas Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, weak impulses in the west to southwest flow aloft will move across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Isolated, elevated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and night across the Rio Grande Plains, Winter Garden, and portions of the Hill Country, and possibly surface based convection along the dryline across the southern Edwards Plateau. Shear and instability parameters could support isolated strong storms.

As the aforementioned upper level disturbance dampens east across the area, several GEFS and ECMWF members are also keying in on Thursday afternoon and evening as another period for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially farther east into the I-35 corridor. We will continue to refine rain chances and strong/severe potential for late Wednesday and late Thursday.
Currently SPC has a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on Thursday for much of the area.

Beyond Thursday the forecast has slightly more clarity with the next cold front and rain chances Friday into the weekend. The initial cold front looks to make it into north-central Texas Thursday afternoon and slow, then potentially make it into the northern Hill Country and central Texas during the day on Friday, and slow again.
Exact placement is low confidence, as convective mesoscale influences along the front Thursday afternoon and night and again Friday could play a role on where it ends up. Eventually this could lead to scattered showers and storms near the front across the Hill Country and into the Austin metro are Friday afternoon, potentially focusing out west across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Friday evening where broad low level convergence resides.

A stronger surge of high pressure to the north is expected on Saturday, which should drive the cold front through the area Saturday afternoon or evening. Global model guidance has become more clustered around this time frame. This will bring an opportunity for more widespread rainfall to the region. As the forecast is refined through the week, we will also monitor for severe storm and heavy rainfall potential Saturday into Saturday night. Much cooler conditions are forecast behind the front. High temperatures on Sunday may only range from mid 60s to low 70s for many locations as post frontal clouds are possible over the shallow cool airmass.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Widespread low-end MVFR stratus is in place across much of south- central Texas this morning and little change is expected through the remainder of the morning with the exception of some terminals seeing cigs drop down to IFR. As far as the TAF sites, this is most likely for KSAT/KSSF. Cigs will lift/scatter out around mid-day with BKN to OVC mid/upper level cloud cover in place above it. Widespread MVFR to possibly IFR cigs will then redevelop Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will remain south/southeasterly through the period except across western areas (KDRT) where a Pacific front/dryline will move through during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 86 71 88 71 / 10 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 70 87 70 / 10 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 69 89 70 / 10 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 88 69 88 70 / 20 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 71 98 75 / 0 0 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 70 87 70 / 10 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 91 69 92 69 / 0 0 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 69 88 70 / 10 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 72 86 72 / 10 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 70 89 70 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 87 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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