Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yulee, FL

UPDATE
An east to northeast flow over the area this evening at about 5-10 mph with a warm front located over south central FL area.
Some light sprinkles over southeast GA, but are quickly lifting northward. Made slight changes to include some isolated showers tonight and increased clouds for inland areas based on latest trends in guidance and still kept a mention of patchy fog over parts of northeast FL as the warm front lifts toward the area by sunrise. Carried the patchy fog into the nearshore coastal areas as well early Sunday morning. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy fog possible across north central FL during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars)
situated over the Deep South, with a weak coastal trough stretching across our near shore Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary was positioned across south FL and the northwestern Bahamas
Aloft
southwesterly flow was gradually deepening in advance of a weak shortwave trough that was traversing the northeast Gulf / Apalachee Bay. Otherwise, zonal flow prevails to the south of a departing trough over coastal New England, while troughing was beginning to dig southeastward from the northern Rockies. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a dry air mass remains in place for areas north of the I-10 corridor, where PWATs were around 0.5 inches. Moisture levels were increasing from south to north elsewhere, where PWATs were increasing to the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range. Isentropic lift / overrunning associated with the approaching weak shortwave trough has developed a thicker mid-level cloud shield along the I-75 and I-10 corridors that was lifting northward towards southeast GA, while breaks in this cloud cover were noted along the I-95 corridor to the south of Jacksonville. Breezy onshore winds were dropping coastal temperatures down to around 70 degrees as of 18Z, while temperatures elsewhere were mostly in the mid and upper 70s. Dewpoints have fallen to the 45-50 range for inland southeast GA, while 50s prevail elsewhere, except around 60 in portions of north central FL.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will cross our area tonight, creating strengthening isentropic lift / overrunning that will thicken mid-level cloud cover from south to north. This lift could develop a few sprinkles beneath the thickening mid-level cloud deck this afternoon and evening, with shower activity then shifting towards the I-95 corridor and coastal locations after midnight.
Otherwise, troughing will begin to dig southeastward from the Rockies tonight, with deepening southwesterly flow helping to lift the stalled frontal boundary currently in place across south FL northward as a warm front overnight. Some fog and low stratus clouds may develop in the increasingly humid air mass near the approaching warm front across north central FL towards sunrise on Sunday.
Otherwise, thickening cloud cover will keep lows in the upper 50s across inland southeast GA and the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- A few strong storms possible Sunday Afternoon - Isolated strong to severe storms Monday with Damaging Winds and Tornadoes possible

High pressure will be northeast of the region Sunday, with an inverted trough over the coastal waters. This inverted trough, in addition to a moist flow will produce chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible Sunday due to diurnal instability and convergence from trough. Highs in the mid 80s will be common inland, mid to upper 70s coast.

The coastal trough will weaken Sunday night, as the high moves away to the northeast. Showers and storms will remain in the forecast through the night due to continued moist flow. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through the night.

Cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday. A round of strong to possibly severe storms is expected to accompany this frontal boundary. High pressure will build behind this front for Monday night, with convection ending from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain above normal Monday.

Colder air will advect in behind the front Monday night, with lows falling into the 30s inland, while holding in the lower 40s over coastal NE FL. Not expecting a frost Monday night, due to winds remaining elevated through the night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Freeze Tuesday Night inland SE Georgia - Inland Frost Tuesday night

High pressure will build from the west northwest Tuesday, then toward the north northeast Tuesday night. Cold air will continue to advect into the region with highs Tuesday in the 50s. Lows Tuesday night will dip below freezing inland SE GA. Lows in the mid 30s will be common over inland NE FL. Lows near the coast will be closer to the lower 40s. Winds will be light Tuesday night, so a fairly widespread inland frost is expected.

High pressure ridge will stretch northwest of the area from a low center to the north northeast Wednesday. A broad trough of low pressure will develop to the southeast. This pattern will persist through Thursday as the trough strengthens. The trough will move off to the east Friday, as high pressure builds from the west. The high pressure ridge will build across area Saturday. After below normal readings Wednesday and Thursday, readings will trend above Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
A warm front is expected to lift across the region late tonight and early Sunday and north of all the terminals by 16z Sunday. Due to the warm front, a general increase in cloudiness expected into Sunday morning. Mainly VFR clouds anticipated at the regional terminals through around 05Z-06Z Sunday, but a few showers may near GNV by about 04z. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR levels near and after 06Z tonight with potential for IFR cigs starting for GNV and SGJ by 07Z to 10Z, and we can't rule out some IFR cigs for the JAX metro TAFs from about 09Z to 13Z and for now showed SCT008. In general, confidence remains too low to indicate anything other than vicinity coverage of showers overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Shower and embedded thunderstorm chances are then expected to increase at the northeast FL terminals after 19Z Sunday with TEMPO and PROB30 groups indicated for the late afternoon and evening hours. Northeasterly winds about 4-8 knots this evening will become light and or variable late. Southerly surface winds will develop around Sunday morning from south to north, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots by 16Z.

MARINE

A warm front will lift north over the area waters late tonight and Sunday morning. A few thunderstorms may develop early Sunday morning mainly over offshore waters. Some patchy fog may also form early Sunday near the coast. Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. South winds will strengthen to Caution levels on Sunday evening across our local waters ahead of a strong cold front with Small Craft Advisory conditions potentially developing offshore after midnight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as the strong cold front crosses our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread our local waters early in the day. The cold front will cross over the waters Monday afternoon with strengthening northwest winds behind it. Occasional gusts to Gale Force are possible by Monday afternoon and night. Strong high pressure will build to the north of the area mid week creating strong northeast winds and rough seas.

Rip Currents: A high risk continues through this evening at the northeast FL beaches, with a moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches. A moderate risk is then expected at all beaches on Sunday and Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Inland Humidity Levels Below 30 Percent Tuesday Through Thursday

- Areas of high daytime dispersions Sunday through Tuesday and again Thursday and next Saturday.

High pressure will be northeast of the region with a coastal trough over the region. A cold front will move southeast across the area Monday. A drier and cooler airmass will advect in behind this front for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds. The region will be between an elongated ridge of high pressure to the northwest, and a trough to the southeast Thursday and Friday. High pressure will build nearly overhead next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday, with potential for strong to severe storms, especially on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 84 62 73 / 30 50 60 90 SSI 62 76 64 78 / 40 50 50 90 JAX 60 86 64 83 / 10 60 50 90 SGJ 63 83 64 81 / 10 60 60 90 GNV 60 86 64 80 / 20 70 60 100 OCF 61 86 65 81 / 20 70 50 90

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.