Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yulee, FL

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1026 millibars) centered to the southeast of Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis westward across central FL. Meanwhile, a wavy frontal boundary extends from the Southern Plains eastward across the Ozarks, the Ohio Valley, and the Delmarva region.
Aloft...deep-layered ridging extends from the southwestern Atlantic waters across the FL peninsula and into the southeast Gulf, while a de-amplifying trough was progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians, with the base of this decaying trough positioned over the Deep South. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture blankets our region, with PWAT values generally in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Thunderstorms have erupted along mesoscale boundaries this afternoon, especially along the I-95 and U.S.
Highway 17 corridors, with widely scattered storms elsewhere across inland southeast GA and north central FL.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east this period, with the ridge extending across forecast area. An upper high will also be centered to the east this period. As a result of this pattern, the flow will remain from south southwest. The east coast sea breeze will move inland each afternoon, but the flow will limit its progress. Convection will initiate across the area in the late morning to early afternoon hours, with this activity then tracking east northeast across the area. The greatest coverage during the afternoon/evening hours of Monday and Tuesday will likely be over eastern counties due to sea breeze interactions.
The upper ridge will help to reduce instability, limiting severe potential. With loss of diurnal heating, convective activity will diminish during the evening hours, with dry overnights.

Highs will be in the lower 90s Monday, and a few degrees higher Tuesday. Heat indices will reach the 100 to 105 range Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s, with warmest readings near the coast.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure will remain centered to the east through Thursday.
This pattern will keep the south southwest flow going, with diurnally driven convection, and an afternoon focus over eastern counties due to sea breeze interactions.

A trough will develop south across southeastern states Thursday night into Friday, as high moves away to the east southeast. The troughing aloft Friday will lead to added instability. Convection will initiate due to diurnal instability in the late morning/early afternoon, with upper instability leading to greater coverage of storms, and an increased potential for strong to severe storms.

The trough will lift out Friday night into Saturday, with high pressure building to the northeast Sunday. Scattered to numerous storms Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but potential for strong to severe will not be as great as Friday.

Temperatures will continue to run above average this period, with the warmest days on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 846 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Lingering showers and storms will shift offshore by 02Z/03Z.
Light surface winds during the overnight hours shifting to become southwesterly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 5 knots by 13Z Monday. Showers and storms will begin once again around 17Z/18Z moving west to east, included PROB30 groups for now.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Atlantic high pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula tonight and Monday, keeping a prevailing south southwesterly wind flow across our area. Showers and thunderstorms will impact our local waters during the afternoon and early evening hours, with a few strong storms possible, bringing briefly gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Atlantic high pressure will then lift its axis northward towards our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely resulting in less afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage as southeasterly winds prevail. Atlantic high pressure will then shift its axis southward across the Florida peninsula late this week as a cold front enters the southeastern states, resulting in prevailing southwesterly winds and increasing chances for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms by Friday. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore for the rest of the upcoming week.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds following the passage of the sea breeze will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches through Monday afternoon. A low risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches beginning on Tuesday due to low surf heights, with prevailing onshore winds keeping a lower end moderate risk in place at the northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1128 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Southwesterly transport winds will prevail this afternoon through Monday, creating fair to good daytime dispersion values at most inland locations. Breezy onshore surface winds following the passage of the afternoon sea breeze at coastal locations will yield poor to fair daytime dispersion values through Monday.
Elevated mixing heights will combine with breezy southwesterly transport winds on Tuesday to create high daytime dispersion values across inland portions of southeast GA, with good values generally forecast for inland northeast and north central FL, with fair values at coastal locations due to prevailing onshore surface winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 91 74 92 / 30 40 30 40 SSI 76 89 77 90 / 80 50 30 40 JAX 74 93 74 94 / 60 50 30 50 SGJ 74 90 74 92 / 50 60 30 50 GNV 73 93 74 95 / 20 60 20 50 OCF 73 92 74 95 / 20 80 30 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.