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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 143 Pm Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late this evening, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming north 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 143 Pm Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure will continue to build into the area with light northerly winds expected. A reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters Tuesday night, and this will push northerly winds increase to small craft advisory thresholds from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then relax back to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the east and then southeast Thursday afternoon as high pressure passes to the north. By Friday, the high will be east of the waters and a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected.

FXUS64 KLIX 041947 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 147 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A weak frontal boundary continues to swing through the region this afternoon. Behind it, a bit better CAA (as compared to the previous front) is taking place, which will likely lead to a bit cooler conditions tonight and Tuesday. This FROPA will be dry due to lack of meaningful moisture return and overall poor ascent/lift. Although cloud cover is hanging on tough across the region this afternoon...this is pretty much the only impact with the front and parent trough.

Going into Tuesday and Tuesday night, surface high pressure will mostly be in control. Overall at or perhaps slightly below average temperatures are anticipated. Tuesday night and into Wednesday another frontal boundary will begin to move through the region with a more pronounced presence. Still no precip with it, however, winds increase as pressure gradient tightens between the low over the Appalachians and the relatively strong high pressure dropping southward from the plains. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A surface high pressure and upper level ridging is the primary story going into the long term period late Wednesday and Thursday.
Overnight lows behind the front with plenty of radiational cooling on Thursday morning will range from the lower 30s over the drainage basins to the upper 40s to near 50 closer to the lake on the south shore. Despite starting off cold, this will be a transitional day as again upper level heights increase. At the surface the high pressure moves east of our region, which will increase the onshore return flow allowing a quick warming and moistening trend to begin.

As the pattern continues to modify a bit, looking up stream a strong amplifying trough begins to dig across the Red River Valley by Friday night and into Saturday. A strong surface cold front will develop and start marching its way toward SE LA and S MS this weekend. Given the range, will not look too deep into individual mesoscale parameters in the Globals, however, synoptically, severe potential with this feature will be present at some point as it moves eastward toward our CWFA. As for the frontal passage, temporally speaking, the globals have gotten much closer and in better alignment with the feature moving through Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. With the parent trough remaining progressive, expect the front and any rainfall/convection associated with it to be more on the transient side, which will likely limit a heavy rainfall threat...but at least some additional beneficial rainfall may occur with most locations receiving around an inch or so of rainfall...give or take. (Frye)

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions and mostly light and variable winds through this TAF cycle. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mostly benign marine conditions tonight through Tuesday as lighter winds develop as high pressure settles into the region. This will be short lived as another cold front moves through the region by midweek increasing winds and seas to hazardous levels Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Conditions do improve going into late week as wind begin to transition from a northerly direction to a more onshore flow behind the departing high pressure system to our east. The next cold front is due into the region on Saturday and Sunday next weekend, which will increase rain/convection across the local waters and perhaps increase winds ahead and behind the front respectively. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 39 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 42 68 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 41 66 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 50 64 48 58 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 42 65 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 40 66 40 60 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Weeks Bay
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Mon -- 12:56 AM CST     1.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:23 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:34 PM CST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
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Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Cote Blanche Island
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Mon -- 01:31 AM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:23 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:18 PM CST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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