Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockdale, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: The overnight thunderstorm activity has now shifted south of Central Texas, leaving behind mid to high clouds across the region. With the forecast remaining largely unchanged, the previous discussion remains valid through tomorrow night.

Regarding the potential for strong to severe today and tomorrow -- with a lack of concentrated forcing for ascent, pinpointing where storms will develop is incredibly difficult in this environment.
The latest models continue to suggest tonight's storm chances will be across OK with a brief and minimal opportunity for rain along the Red River Valley. If a storm does move across our far northern counties, lightning would be the primary hazard. The overall severe weather threat would be low given minimal forcing.

For Saturday, a similar environment will be in place with nebulous forcing largely across West Texas. Any thunderstorm activity that develops will shift eastward. At this time, the expectation is for any storms that develop to dissipate before reaching our region.
We'll continue to assess the latest models today in case models suggest a higher thunderstorm potential tomorrow afternoon.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Night/

A storm complex continues to move southward across western Central Texas with a few showers extending as far east as the I-35 corridor. As we continue through the early morning hours, expect this complex of storms to advance southward, moving out of our region by 5-6 AM.

A minimally amplified ridge is currently across Northern Mexico, yielding W/WNW flow aloft across North and Central Texas. Daytime temperatures will be the warmest across Central Texas, where lower to mid 90s can be expected. In North Texas, upper 80s to lower 90s will prevail.

A shortwave, currently depicted via satellite across the Four Corner's region, will arrive to the Southern/Central Plains this afternoon. This shortwave will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms well north of our region. A few CAMs do hint at the potential for an isolated storm or two across the southern Texas Panhandle with a general movement towards our region. The potential for this to occur remains near 10%, therefore afternoon precipitation chances will not be mentioned in the official forecast.

As we head into tonight, storms across Oklahoma will likely congeal into a cluster and move southeast through the evening.
Although the bulk of the precipitation will remain across Oklahoma, a few stray showers or storms cannot be ruled out after midnight along the Red River. The overall severe weather threat will remain low, however, non-zero given ample amounts of instability.

Saturday's forecast will remain precipitation free as the ridge to our west/southwest has a larger impact on our region.
Temperatures will be in the mid 90s along and west of I-35 with heat index values near 100 degrees. With stronger ridging in place, any thunderstorm complex should divert away from our region, keeping North and Central Texas dry.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 309 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025/ /Sunday through Next Week/

We will end the Memorial Day weekend with seasonable heat on Sunday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat indices may attempt to approach the 100 degree mark across portions of North and Central Texas, but as of now it appears that we will remain below Heat Advisory criteria. This heat will quickly come to an end as troughing across the Western CONUS sends a cold front south into our region. This will serve as a focus for increased chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms through late Sunday night into Monday afternoon. The atmosphere will be conducive for at least an isolated strong to severe storm or two, with modest deep layer shear and moderate instability around 2,000 J/kg. We may begin to see more of a flooding threat materialize given atmospheric profiles depicting a saturated column as well as tall, skinny CAPE. Modest deep layer shear may also favor thunderstorm training which would serve to increase local rainfall amounts. Right now the most likely rainfall totals range between 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with isolated totals upwards of 3.5 inches. Future forecasts will refine these amounts over the coming days and will be worth monitoring as we are moving into a busy outdoor stretch for folks.

The front will attempt to clear the region to our south but guidance is continuing to suggest that this front will stall out somewhere across the forecast area, likely somewhere in Central Texas. This will keep low rain chances in the forecast through the upcoming week with cooler temperatures lingering across the entire region. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. A nice way to end off the month!

Reeves

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

No significant weather is expected today across North and Central Texas TAF sites. Easterly light winds will persist through the next few hours before becoming established out of the south.

Mid and high level clouds continue to stream across the region.
These will move east later this morning, keeping high clouds in place. Tonight, a surge in low-level moisture will advect low clouds into KACT and parts of D10 tonight. The greatest potential for MVFR will be just east of the North Texas TAF sites. The low cloud potential will be assessed through today and changes will be made if needed.

Hernandez

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 75 94 74 92 / 5 5 0 5 30 Waco 92 74 94 74 92 / 5 0 0 0 30 Paris 86 72 87 72 89 / 5 10 5 5 40 Denton 91 72 94 72 92 / 5 5 0 5 30 McKinney 89 74 92 73 91 / 5 5 0 5 30 Dallas 93 75 93 75 93 / 5 5 0 5 30 Terrell 90 74 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 30 Corsicana 93 75 94 74 92 / 5 0 0 0 30 Temple 94 73 94 73 94 / 5 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 94 73 98 72 94 / 0 5 0 5 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.