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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 254 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 254 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
gusty easterly winds in excess of 15 to 20 knots will continue through tonight, which will maintain hazardous waves and seas. Winds will gradually decrease ahead of a pattern change and approaching cold front which is expected to arrive Saturday. An increase in winds to 20 to 25 knots is expected behind the front then easing into the first of next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 031957 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Current upper level pattern in place across the country is fairly simple in the fact that there's a broad ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes and a deep longwave trough draped across the Rockies. Strong subsidence from this high pressure and very dry air throughout the atmospheric column locally will keep the land areas of the CWA rain free. The only exception in along the LA coastal areas where surface dewpoints are in the mid 70s and there's a sharp gradient of higher deeper moisture content with PW's over 1.5". Temps continue to be at or slightly above normal due to upper ridge nearby and relatively dry air in place.

The upper trough to the northwest will broaden across the Canadian/US border on Wednesday while the southern apex of it lags behind in eastward progression. This will cause the northern side of the upper ridge to erode but still have some semblance of high pressure aloft to keep most of the CWA from seeing any rainfall outside of continued coastal showers. Also won't see appreciable chances in temperatures from the last several days. Not much spread in guidance so stayed with deterministic NBM. A cold front embedded within the base of the approaching trough should be moving through east Texas and just nudging into far NW LA by the end of this forecast period, 12Z Thursday. Model consensus fairly high at this point that it won't reach the CWA before then, so have kept POPs out of the forecast for now.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

No significant changes in thinking from previous forecasts. A strong northern stream trough axis will dig into the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday and Saturday. An attendant cold front will accompany this trough axis with the frontal passage expected to occur during the day on Friday. Modest moisture return as evidenced by PWATS of around 1.75 inches in advance of the front will support the development of some scattered shower and weak thunderstorm activity. This is reflected by PoP values of 30 to 40 percent over most of the CWA. In fact, model sounding analysis indicates very limited mid-level instability, so any thunderstorm activity should remain isolated and be very short-lived. By Friday night, a surge of much drier air is expected to begin sweeping into the area, and this will effectively shut off any rain chances by Saturday morning.
As deep layer northwest flow and strong negative vorticity advection takes hold over the weekend, clear skies and low humidities can be expected from Saturday through early next week.

Little spread in the model solutions exists in terms of temperature forecasts on Friday and Saturday, and have largely stuck with the deterministic NBM output through this period. Daytime highs on Friday should be near average in the mid 80s, but colder air will begin to advect into the region Friday night. This colder airmass will push 925mb temperatures into the upper 50s, and this support daytime highs at the surface in the upper 70s. A gradual modification of the airmass is expected by Monday and Tuesday, but daytime highs will remain below average in the lower 80s. The combination of clear skies, dry air, and light winds will allow overnight lows will dip into the 50s over most of the forecast area Saturday, Sunday, and Monday nights. However, a few locations in southwest Mississippi and in the drainages of the Pearl and Pascagoula Rivers could dip into the upper 40s. To the south of Lake Pontchartrain, northerly winds off the warmer lake waters will keep temperatures more modified in the lower 60s each night.
Overall, a very pleasant stretch of weather is expected after the front pushes through on Friday.

PG

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

No significant impacts expected at terminals through this forecast period. A CU field has developed across portions of the area with ceilings just nudging into MVFR category. Those will probably rise into VFR before eventually dissipated later today. Easterly winds persist with most terminals 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots.
TAF sites closer to water will experience about 5kts stronger than that during the day. Evening and nighttime hours return to light and variable with mostly VFR prevailing. Some guidance suggest low chance for light fog Tuesday morning at KMCB and KBTR. Not confident enough to add that to TAFs just yet.

MARINE
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

There's a strong surface ridge situated underneath a broad upper ridge centered northeast of the CWA. To the northwest, a surface trough is deepening while tracking into the Rockies. This is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the local coastal waters. That gradient currently supports Small Craft Advisory winds in open Gulf waters with Exercise Caution conditions in the tidal lakes and sounds. However, the gradient will start to relax some this evening and tonight as the surface ridge slides east. Thus, the SCY will drop off and just carrying SCS headline through tonight.

First significant cold front of the fall season still looks to come marching through Friday night. Expecting Small Craft conditions to develop behind the front. Probably looking at a 24 to 36 hour duration of those conditions before the gradient relaxes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 92 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 67 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 64 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 72 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 66 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 62 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ067>070-076-078.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ067>070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Tue -- 05:34 AM CDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 PM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:17 AM CDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:34 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:54 PM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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