Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:09PM Sunday January 26, 2020 4:29 AM EST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:55AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:202001262115;;530938 Fzus52 Ktae 260813 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 313 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-262115- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 313 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020 /213 Am Cst Sun Jan 26 2020/
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain.
Monday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 313 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis.. Favorable marine conditions are mostly on tap for this period with winds and seas rising to at or near cautionary levels on Tues and next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads, FL
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location: 30.71, -84.92     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 260811 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 311 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

The eastern CONUS trough will amplify as a southern stream wave superpositions with a northern stream shortwave over the Southeast through tonight. Surface cyclogenesis will begin over the western Gulf this morning, with a low moving into the central Gulf by tomorrow morning. Isentropic ascent in the cool airmass north of the warm front will result in light rain spreading from west to east through the region beginning late this afternoon/early evening. Highs today will range from the mid 50s west of a line from Albany through Panama City, and climb as high as the mid 60s in the southeast Big Bend. Lows tonight will uniformly fall to the upper 40s under overcast skies with light rain.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday].

The Gulf low is expected to be centered over the southeastern GoMex to begin the work week. This system will continue to bring light rain to our forecast area with the highest PoPs (50-60%) in coastal and marine zones. Included a slight chance of thunder to only our western waters where instability is marginally favorable for convection. Rain tapers off Mon evening as the disorganized low and its associated moisture moves east. Dry conditions prevail for the remainder of the short-term period. High temperatures will be up to the mid 60s and lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday].

Dry conditions continue until Wed afternoon, when a weak area of low pressure makes its approach from the west. There is good agreement among models that this system will weaken as it moves through our area. Scattered showers are expected with the heavier rain remaining offshore. Some rumbles of thunder may be possible in the marine areas but kept it out of the forecast given the expected weakening trend of the aforementioned low. Rain chances then diminish before ramping back up again at the end of the work week with the next system.

There still continues to be model disagreement on next weekend's synoptic evolution involving a deep trough digging down into Mexico that interacts with a a digging longwave trough from the Plains. The GFS solution depicts cyclogenesis over the southeast CONUS, which eventually leads to a large occluded low that tracks northeast along the TN/OH Valley. The ECMWF solution looks less impressive with a depiction of a large, but disorganized mass of moisture moving through our area. If the GFS verifies, then a reasonable precipitation outlook will involve showers ahead of the system, followed by a temporary break in the rain as the dry slot moves through, then some more showers from the wrap-around moisture by the center of the occluded low as it gains latitude, and concludes with dry conditions.

Ultimately the intensity, timing, and track of this system will dictate the eventual outcome. Confidence remains somewhat low on these parameters currently. Nevertheless, we can at least expect a mostly wet Fri and Sat with a slight chance of thunder over our waters. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s (around 50 in the immediate coast Fri & Sat).

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Monday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF at TLH, ABY, and VLD. At ECP and DHN, VFR is expected to deteriorate this afternoon/evening to MVFR as light rain approaches the region from the southwest.

MARINE.

Favorable marine conditions are mostly on tap for this period with winds and seas rising to at or near cautionary levels on Tues and next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER.

Low dispersion indices will be possible both today and tomorrow. Otherwise, hazardous fire weather condition are not expected over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Most of the heavy rainfall will occur over water. Expected accumulations over the next 7 days are 1" or less. There are no flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 61 49 64 44 67 / 10 40 40 0 0 Panama City 59 51 66 46 67 / 30 60 50 0 0 Dothan 57 46 61 42 64 / 10 60 40 0 0 Albany 59 46 60 41 63 / 0 50 40 0 0 Valdosta 61 48 63 44 66 / 0 30 30 0 0 Cross City 65 49 66 46 69 / 0 20 20 10 0 Apalachicola 60 53 64 48 64 / 20 60 50 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . IG LONG TERM . IG AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . IG FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . IG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 55 mi60 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 59°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 56 mi96 min N 2.9 G 5.1 47°F 1019.4 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 64 mi105 min NW 2.9 1021 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marianna Municipal Airport, FL17 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair41°F37°F86%1019.7 hPa
Quincy Municipal Airport, FL21 mi35 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds39°F39°F100%1020.3 hPa
Bainbridge, Decatur County Industrial Air Park Airport, GA24 mi35 minWSW 410.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMAI

Wind History from MAI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW7NW4CalmNW4N7NW8NW5NW8--W7NW7NW7NW6CalmW4CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE6SE3--S5S4--SW7SW6S8W13NW12NW11NW9--W4W5W5W3CalmW3W5--NW5--
2 days agoNE7--NE8NE5E9NE10E9E10E8E7E7NE7NE7NE5NE3NE5E5E5Calm--SE3SE6SE7S6

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:47 AM CST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:59 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:58 PM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.21.10.90.60.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:07 AM CST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:59 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.31.210.70.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.100.20.40.60.811.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.