Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saucier, MS

FXUS64 KMOB 162348 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 648 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A lobe of shortwave energy sweeps around the base of a closed upper low passing north of the Southeast tonight through Saturday, with a weak cold front moving south over the Southeast tonight into Saturday in response before stalling between the I-20 and Highway 84 corridors Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect areas north of Highway 84 later tonight into Saturday morning as the vort lobe passes.
Another round of shortwave energy passes Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, bringing coverage of showers and thunderstorms further south, to near the northern border of Florida. Am not expecting any rowdy storms with the first round of showers and thunderstorms tonight over the forecast area. Saturday afternoon is a different story. MLCapes rise into the 2000-2500J/kg range along and north of Highway 84, with DCapes in the 800-1100J/kg range and EBWD shear rising to around 40kts over the same area.
Enough for strong to marginally severe storms, with strong winds the primary threat. Even with the upper ridge weakening over the forecast area and nearby Saturday afternoon, mid level lapse rates remain low enough to limit hail development. Model soundings show a generally linear profile, with little directional shear, so am not expecting any organized storms. With storm movement in a generally easterly direction, overrunning of the surface boundary is generally not expected, but if a local surge from a storm moves a portion of the boundary south enough, local water issues become a possiblity, albeit small one. Will need to monitor the afternoon and early evening hours for the rowdy storms.

Upper level high pressure remains in control through the Near Term, with temperatures remaining well above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to near 95 are expected this afternoon and again Saturday, with mid 80s along the coast. Low temperatures in the 70-76 degree range are expected tonight and Saturday night. Heat Indices are expected to top out in the mid 90s to near 100 this afternoon, with upper 90s to low 100s expected Saturday.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this afternoon will drop to a Low tonight. /16

An upper ridge over the central states on Sunday progresses across the eastern states through Tuesday and is followed by an upper trof advancing into the Plains. A series of shortwaves progressing mostly across the central portions of Alabama/Mississippi on Sunday may allow for some isolated convection to develop over the northernmost portion of the forecast area, but otherwise dry conditions prevail through Tuesday afternoon. The upper trof amplifies while continuing into the eastern states Wednesday into Thursday, then begins to move off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An associated surface low brings a cold front through the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, and will have slight chance to chance pops Tuesday night into Wednesday, then dry conditions follow for Wednesday night through Friday as a surface ridge builds into the region. Highs on Sunday through Tuesday range from the mid 80s at the coast to the lower 90s further inland, then trend cooler to the upper 70s to lower 80s for Thursday. Friday will see highs mostly in the lower 80s. Lows Sunday night range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast then moderate a bit through Tuesday night to range from the lower to mid 70s. In the wake of the cold front, lows Wednesday night range from around 60 well inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast, then lows Thursday night range from the lower/mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the immediate coast. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated for Sunday through Tuesday. /29
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