Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Marys, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:33 AM EST (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- 158 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 3 am est early this morning...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tonight..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..North northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely and a chance of.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 158 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis.. Strong southwest winds tonight will shift westerly in the wake of a cold front Saturday. Small craft conditions will continue for the offshore waters through Saturday afternoon. Winds and waves subside with calmer conditions expected Saturday night through Monday as high pressure dominates. Another cold front approaches the area on Tuesday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 14, 2019 at 1200 utc... 42 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 41 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 50 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 74 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Marys, GA
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location: 30.72, -81.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 140602 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 102 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Sunday]

Fog begins to lift as a line of showers and storms ahead of a cold front move through the region affecting the TAF sites generally in the 08Z-12Z time range. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible. These thunderstorms have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts. Storms should exit all TAF sites by sunrise. Behind the front, ceilings lift to VFR and begin to clear. Breezy winds develop along the coast this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION [918 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

An upper level shortwave along the northern-central Gulf waters with a vertically stacked deepening low below it is keeping the southeast in a soggy weather pattern this afternoon. A quasi- stationary front is stretched out from roughly St. Augustine southwest to Gainesville, with available instability north of this boundary capped by a thick deck of low level clouds. However, just to the south of this boundary lies an untapped instability source with of MLCAPE 500-800 J/kg. Not a rager, but enough to kick storm generation up a notch along boundaries. As the Gulf low swings northeastward this evening, that boundary will push north as a warm front moving through our area and dynamics will become more favorable for the development of severe weather. By the time midnight rolls around, we'll have 0-6 km shear of 50-60 kts, which will help organize thunderstorms that develop in the warm sector of the system and at least pose a wind threat. With 0-1 km shear of 30-40 kts, unfortunately these storms will also be posing a threat for nighttime tornadoes. The time frame of midnight to 7 AM means that it's a good idea to make sure you have your Weather Radio set to alert tonight and your WEA notifications enabled on your phone before going to bed tonight just in case.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night].

By Saturday morning, the remaining storms will likely pick up some steam and exit the area quickly through the remaining morning hours, rendering a drier, breezy afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures Sat night behind the cold front will be near normal, in the low-mid 40s. High pressure will build eastward Sunday, leading to calmer winds and similar temperatures to Saturday.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday].

The break in rain chances will be brief, however, with our next front developing and moving in by Monday night. At that point, another upper level shortwave trough will push into the Srn Plains, developing a cold front out in the lower MS Valley. This cold front will move into the Southeast and TN Valley on Tuesday, reaching our area Tues evening/night. Behind this cold front, much a colder, drier air will advect into the area. Highs Wed through Friday behind the front will be in the mid 50s to low 60s and overnight lows will be in the 30s.

MARINE.

Strong southwest winds tonight will become more westerly in the wake of a cold front Saturday morning. A strong pressure gradient along this front will continue small craft conditions over our offshore waters through Saturday afternoon, possibly into the overnight period. After that, we'll have a brief quiet period with winds around 10 knots through Tuesday until another front approaches the area mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER.

A quasi-stationary boundary in place today is keeping very light winds in place at the surface and leading to low daytime dispersion values. This will push north overnight as a warm front, with a cold front sweeping in west to east later in the night and early tomorrow morning. Heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany these fronts, which will make for wet fuels, diminishing the threat for red flag conditions when drier air moves in behind the front.

HYDROLOGY.

A much needed 1-3" of rainfall fell this morning, mostly in extreme SE GA and eastern portions Nassau and Duval counties in FL. Although we've been in a quiet period through much of the day, showers and scattered thunderstorms will ramp up again in the evening and overnight hours, bringing another 1-2" of rain to the area. This may lead to isolated flooding in low-lying areas and those with poor drainage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 63 41 66 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 66 46 64 52 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 45 68 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 SGJ 71 48 69 54 77 / 30 0 0 0 0 GNV 70 45 70 50 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 OCF 73 45 72 51 79 / 20 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for Baker- Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns- Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union.

High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST early this morning for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA . Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for Brantley-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Northeastern Charlton-Western Charlton.

High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST early this morning for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 5 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 7 69°F 61°F1005.9 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 14 mi34 min 61°F3 ft
NFDF1 22 mi46 min SSW 6 G 8 58°F 1006.9 hPa
BLIF1 23 mi46 min S 8.9 G 11 65°F 1006.6 hPa65°F
DMSF1 23 mi46 min 64°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 23 mi46 min S 7 G 9.9 65°F 64°F1005.7 hPa
LTJF1 24 mi46 min 66°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 59 mi44 min S 7.8 G 7.8 61°F 61°F4 ft1005.4 hPa (-2.4)61°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL9 mi39 minSSW 75.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze64°F0°F%1005.4 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL17 mi98 minS 51.00 miFog/Mist64°F62°F93%1005.9 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL24 mi42 minS 1110.00 miFair65°F64°F97%1005.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFHB

Wind History from FHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4N3NW5N3E7E4NW8CalmW3NE6NE5CalmCalmE5E3NE3CalmCalmE3E5CalmSE3S8S6
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Tide / Current Tables for St. Marys, St. Marys River, Florida
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St. Marys
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:14 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:51 AM EST     7.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:14 PM EST     5.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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53.51.80.4-0.301.334.666.97.16.65.33.51.80.50.10.61.83.24.45.45.9

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3)
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:11 AM EST     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EST     2.95 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:53 PM EST     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:41 PM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-1.7-2.3-2.1-1.4-0.50.31.12.22.92.71.70.5-0.9-2.1-2.3-2-1.4-0.700.91.92.11.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.