Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce de Leon, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 953 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

The forecast is currently on track, updates do not appear necessary this morning.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Per 3Z WPC surface analysis, a backdoor front was analyzed from Valdosta through the Wiregrass Region with a large bubble of 1024-mb surface high pressure stretching from TN to the East Gulf. The presence of this boundary amidst a stable airmass opens the door for patchy fog through sunrise for locations along/south where dew points currently range from upper 40s to upper 50s. Some of the fog may be locally dense.

For this afternoon, northeast winds behind the front bring a reinforced shot of dry air such that Td's tank in the 30s away from the immediate coast. Such conditions prompt elevated fire concerns mainly over SW GA (see fire section for more details).
Otherwise, expect a nice day with highs in the mid 70s despite plentiful sunshine. Ideal radiational cooling via light/calm winds under clear skies drives widespread inland lows in the 40s tonight into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A warming & moistening trend amidst rain-free weather defines most of the long-term period. Another backdoor front attempts to drop into the Tri-State area around Monday, but ridging looks to keep the boundary and any associated convection to our north. Ridging then strengthens over the MS/TN Valley mid-week ahead of an amplifying upper trough moving across Northern Mexico. Upper-height rises foster high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with 50s for lows starting Monday.

Our next rain-making system attendant to the southern (up)stream trough approaches from the west towards the end of this forecast cycle. Meanwhile, surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast promotes more pronounced moisture return via efficient SE low-level flow. Weak convergent or confluent flow may be able to squeeze out low-topped maritime showers that reach parts of the Emerald Coast as soon as Thursday.

Although it is too early to say with much confidence, severe weather is potentially in play heading into next week if the trough can stay far enough south and/or acquire a negative tilt east of the Ark-La- Tex region. Stay tuned!

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

While VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, some patchy MVFR/IFR fog is possible around sunrise. Fog should lift by 14z in areas where it develops. Winds turn more northeasterly through the day following a backdoor cold front. The only exception is a brief seabreeze at ECP late Friday afternoon/evening.

MARINE
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A backdoor front ushers light to gentle northeast breezes on Friday.
Surface high pressure then shifts east of the region, causing gentle to occasionally moderate westerlies this weekend. High pressure then slides southward in response to another backdoor front from the north early next week, which prompts a change to predominantly onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A backdoor front brings a shot of reinforced dry air via northeast winds today. Relative humidity is forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 20s over much of SW GA Friday afternoon, so elevated fire conditions will be present. Adjacent portions of SE AL and the I-10 corridor are also susceptible to critically low RH.

Airmass moderation gradually gets underway this weekend as dew points & RH creep up thanks to prevailing SW winds as surface high pressure shifts east of the Tri-State area. No rain is expected through at least mid next week. When combined with a warming trend, fuels should dry further over the next several days.

Lastly, look for daily afternoon seabreezes with greater inland penetration from the coast beginning Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

No rainfall is expected over the next several days, so drought will persist and/or worsen. For more information on our local drought statement, visit: weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 53 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 75 46 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 74 43 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 74 43 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 76 42 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 53 73 60 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.