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GMZ636 Expires:202312041530;;861456 Fzus54 Kmob 040256 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 856 pm cst Sun dec 3 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-041530- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 856 pm cst Sun dec 3 2023
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.

GMZ600 856 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow continues through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong offshore flow may develop Wednesday before turning easterly and relaxing by the end of the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 040548 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1248 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1224 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

There is a cold front draped along the Flint River down into the Florida Panhandle with fog developing out ahead of it in southwestern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued through 10 AM EST for the potential for widespread fog of less than one quarter of a mile. Fog is expected to dissipate as the front moves through overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 819 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Patchy fog has developed early across the eastern half of the area this evening with residual low level moisture. The only change to the forecast was to start patchy fog earlier in the evening for the eastern half of the area.

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A cold front moving slowly eastward across the area today will finally clear the region tonight. Cloud cover may linger overnight into Monday in the wake of the front, and a few spots of very light rain and drizzle may still persist across the southeast Big Bend tonight. Rain rates should remain very light and should not create additional flooding over already saturated areas. Light west to northwest winds are expected in the wake of the front, with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected. Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 40s to low 50s across Southeast Alabama and far Southwest GA while the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and South-Central GA remain in the mid 50s to low 60s. Highs Monday are forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

In the wake of the front, conditions will dry out and cool down. No rain is expected through this period. Highs will be in the 60s on Tuesday with lows in the 40s Monday and Tuesday nights.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A deepening, positively-tilted trough will help drive another cold front through the region. This frontal passage will be dry, but usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday night looks to be the chilliest. Inland areas will potentially get some frost with lows in the lower to mid 30s. A gradual warning trend will then commence with highs back in the 70s everywhere by Saturday. Unfortunately, it looks like the timing for the next weather-maker will be centered on the weekend. An upper-level trough will sweep across the Southeast during this time with a frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. Timing for this system among the various global models is better than previously. PoPs Saturday will range from 40 in Walton County to 10 over South Central GA. For Saturday night and Sunday, PoPs will range from 50-60% west to 20- 30% east. It too early to speculate on severe weather chances, but the system does look to be progressive enough to avoid significant flooding issues, especially after 5 days of antecedent dry weather.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The biggest challenge tonight is going to be visibility, especially for KTLH, KVLD, and KABY. LIFR to VLIFR visibility is expected much of the night for those three sites, but there is the chance for it to begin lifting after 09Z/10Z. For KECP and KDHN, there is a chance for some fog formation, but confidence wasn't high enough to include in their TAFs at this time. Amendments may be necessary tonight depending on how the fog/visibility behaves tonight.

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail once the front moves through with winds turning out of the west to northwest at around 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A cold front will cross the region this evening and overnight switching winds to the northwest. Winds may briefly approach exercise caution levels on Monday. A second cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night increasing winds to near advisory levels.
Winds will then shift to the east and diminish from Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds north of the region.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 243 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Dry conditions are on tap after heavy rainfall for much of the area over the weekend. While cooler and drier air is expected to move in tonight and Monday in the wake of today's front, a much stronger front will push through Tuesday into Tuesday night and bring in even colder air. Despite this, there are no fire weather concerns expected outside of the higher dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 819 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Rainfall totals ranged from 3-6 inches across a large swath of the southern 2/3 of the forecast area with localized areas from Panama City east across Wakulla and southern Jefferson counties getting 10- 12 inches. Because precursor conditions were so dry with some areas still in drought, and the majority of the rain falling over the lower reaches of main stem rivers, minimal river flooding was observed or forecast. The exceptions are the Sopchoppy and Aucilla Rivers. Moderate flooding has occurred at Sopchoppy with minor flooding expected along the Aucilla River at Lamont. The St Marks River at Newport is now expected to remain just below the minor flood stage. Looking ahead, the frontal system next weekend looks to be progressive, limiting the flood potential.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 73 46 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 71 47 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 68 41 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 70 41 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 71 44 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 75 49 66 46 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 70 50 63 47 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ015>019- 026-027-115-118-127.

High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ125>131- 144>148-156>161.

AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GMZ730-755- 765.

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West Bay Creek
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Mon -- 02:53 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:02 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lynn Haven
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Mon -- 02:29 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:59 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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