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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce de Leon, FL

July 21, 2024 1:50 AM CDT (06:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM
Moonrise 8:27 PM   Moonset 5:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ636 Expires:202407211515;;019079 Fzus54 Kmob 210242 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 942 pm cdt Sat jul 20 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-211515- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 942 pm cdt Sat jul 20 2024

Rest of tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely.

Sunday - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.

Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday - Southwest winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning.

Monday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south around 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.

Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 942 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 20 2024

Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through next week. There will be a chance of Thunderstorms each day, with favorable conditions for waterspouts each morning. Winds and seas will be locally higher near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 210535 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 135 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Diurnal convection is dying off but will return in earnest to the Emerald coast late tonight/early Sunday morning, similar to past days. PoPs are in good order and only minor adjustments were made to bring temps and dews in line with current trends (a bit lower in the rain cooled air), but this did not impact overnight lows.

NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Similar to the last few days, convection got an early start across the area and showers and storms are now becoming widespread with continued afternoon heating. Like yesterday, activity will continue to push inland with further development of storms to north and east parts of the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected, with only an occasional strong wind gusts possible in the strongest storms today. Main concerns will revolve around a risk for localized flooding as high rainfall rates accompany the storms. Some locations along the coast saw a quick 3 to 4 inches of rain in the span of 60 to 90 minutes today and while the greater flood threat will be along the coast, inland areas still could see these types of rainfall amounts in localized areas if storms train across an area.

Convection will gradually wind down early this evening and while isolated showers/storms could continue in some locations this evening, most of the evening and early part of the overnight hours should be quiet. Like today, activity will then again begin to increase along our coastal counties and nearshore waters in the pre- dawn and morning hours. While we're sounding like a broken record, conditions look to repeat themselves again on Sunday as storms develop along/near the coast and progress inland through the late morning and early afternoon hours. With the increased activity high temperatures will remain around normal and in the low 90s.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The atmospheric tug-of-war between a stubborn positively tilted upper trough to our NW and subtropical West Atlantic ridge continues into early next week. We remain caught in between these two features, which should keep the weather wet/unsettled/muggy until the pattern relents. The forecast reflects these expectations by maintaining elevated rain chances and low-to-mid 90s/70s for highs/lows. Greatest potential for rainfall is the NW portion of the Tri-State closer to the trough with its attendant surface front.
Heat indices look to range from about 101-109 degrees, the latter of which is at or near advisory levels.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The subtropical ridge noses westward in response to its upstream counterpart showing some weakening early to mid-week. This slight synoptic shift may reduce convective coverage from widespread to scattered in nature, but trends still appear fairly wet. By late week, a reinforcing shortwave/cutoff low rounding through the Great Lakes causes the ridge to modestly retreat eastward, thus reverting us to the annoyingly stubborn "sandwich" pattern of moist deep-layer SW flow. As a result, mostly elevated rain chances remain in the forecast. By next weekend, it seems that ridging becomes much better established across the Eastern US, so expect a return to more of a typical summertime setup of diurnal seabreeze-driven thunderstorms and hotter daytime temperatures in the extended period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Surface observations across the I75 corridor into south central Georgia and reporting IFR and below observations including VLD at the moment. Trends through the overnight point to an increase in these cigs to include ABY overnight and perhaps MVFR at DHN towards dawn. Flight conditions should improve after daybreak. At the same time, convection will begin in the panhandle and offshore the Florida coast then spread inland this morning with additional development through the day. Maintain VCTS at all sites through the day then waning after sunset. Winds will be light and from the southwest with locally higher gusts, along with brief MVFR conditions, in and around thunderstorms.

MARINE
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, generally pleasant boating conditions prevail. Southerly winds at around 10 knots or less continue with seas of 1 to 2 feet into at least mid next week. Any thunderstorms will be capable of localized gusty winds, higher waves, frequent lightning, and possible waterspouts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

No fire weather concerns outside daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as the area will be under a wet and moist pattern through the early part of next week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Instances of localized nuisance/flash flooding remain possible over the next few days as long as the moist environment persists for continued daily heavy-rain-making thunderstorms. The most vulnerable locations are urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage spots or places reeling from antecedent wet conditions. The axis of highest precipitation does appear to shift west to NW heading into early next week, but overall trends still appear wet. Widespread 1-2+ inches are forecast (isolated higher). In terms of rivers, there are no concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 74 93 74 92 / 40 50 30 60 Panama City 76 89 77 90 / 50 80 20 60 Dothan 73 90 73 92 / 60 60 20 60 Albany 74 91 73 92 / 60 60 40 50 Valdosta 75 94 74 94 / 50 60 30 60 Cross City 75 95 75 91 / 30 50 50 80 Apalachicola 77 88 78 89 / 30 70 20 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi50 minWSW 8G9.9 86°F30.06
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi50 minE 1.9G4.1 88°F


Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg


Tide / Current for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
   
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West Bay Creek
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Sat -- 04:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:54 AM CDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
-0.3
1
am
-0.1
2
am
0.1
3
am
0.4
4
am
0.7
5
am
1
6
am
1.3
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.9
9
am
2.1
10
am
2.3
11
am
2.3
12
pm
2.3
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
1.9
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
1.3
5
pm
0.9
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.3
8
pm
-0
9
pm
-0.2
10
pm
-0.4
11
pm
-0.4


Tide / Current for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
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Sat -- 04:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:30 AM CDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:15 PM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
-0.1
1
am
0.1
2
am
0.3
3
am
0.6
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.2
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.8
8
am
2
9
am
2.2
10
am
2.3
11
am
2.3
12
pm
2.2
1
pm
2
2
pm
1.7
3
pm
1.4
4
pm
1
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
-0.4
10
pm
-0.4
11
pm
-0.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Northwest Florida,




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