Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce de Leon, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The main concerns are another round of fog Wednesday morning and the potential for some strong storms in the I-75 corridor during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Similar to Tuesday morning, greatest fog potential will be from the Western FL Big Bend into the Eastern FL Panhandle, and Southeast AL.
The fog could be locally dense but should dissipate by 10 AM ET.

Attention then turns to the potential for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A weak shortwave impulse moves through aloft, with PWAT increasing up to around 1.2 inches, with forcing provided by both the Gulf and East Coast seabreezes. Greatest instability with CAPE around 1k J/kg is expected in the I-75 corridor of GA, where mid- level lapse rates are 7-7.5 C/km, along with DCAPE around 1k J/kg.
If thunderstorms develop/propagate into the I-75 corridor by late afternoon/evening, there could be isolated damaging wind gusts and isolated small to medium-sized hail. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather in Southwest GA. Elsewhere, any shower/ thunderstorm activity should be limited in coverage and intensity, favoring southeast AL.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

As the upper high moves further east, perturbations in the upper level flow and the presence of a front to our north will generate sufficient lift for scattered showers or thunderstorms through this period with highest PoPs across our northeast zones. PoPs on Thursday afternoon will range from 50 across Ben Hill County to about 20 from I-10 to U.S. 84. Lows will be in the lower 60s Wednesday night and mainly mid 60s Thursday night with highs Thursday in the upper 80s to around 90.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

There will be less forcing around Friday and Saturday with slight chance PoPs limited to our northern and easternmost counties. A backdoor front will slip in from the northeast Sunday into Monday increasing PoPs to about 30 percent over our eastern counties. The lack of precipitation across most of the area will result in unseasonably hot temperatures with most areas reach 90 or better Friday through Sunday. Some relief behind the front can be expected across our GA counties Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

The main updates to this TAF were to remove flt restrictions for terminals sans ECP, and introduce PROB30 groups for non-FL sites this aftn for -TSRA. The latest model trends show fog/low stratus mainly focusing over the FL Panhandle this morning. Isolated to scattered convection aims to develop across the northern portion of the region and may cluster invof DHN/ABY/VLD. Highest confidence attm is around the I-75 corridor. Otherwise, lgt/vrb winds prevail thru the period.

MARINE
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Light winds are expected over the northeast Gulf through Wednesday evening. Nearshore afternoon seabreezes may result in locally higher seas, especially near the bays. On Thursday night, fresh southeast breezes may increase wave heights into the 2 to 3 foot range by Friday. Some overnight and morning fog is also possible each day closer to the coast.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The main fire concerns continue to revolve around daily chances for morning fog and dispersion levels through midweek, with little to no wetting rains. In particular, pockets of low dispersion may linger into Wednesday afternoon near Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers, and pockets of high dispersion are possible on Thursday afternoon for parts of Southwest GA and Southeast AL.

Meanwhile, a persistent moist southerly wind keeps RH values above critical thresholds despite precipitation lacking. Daytime seabreezes are also expected, leading to locally gusty winds, a sudden directional shift, and sharp rises in humidity, especially south of I-10. In addition, gusty and erratic winds are possible near any thunderstorms in the I-75 corridor of GA Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Lastly, conditions will be very warm through early next week with high temperatures away from the Gulf coast in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

No flooding is expected for the upcoming week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 63 87 65 87 / 0 20 10 10 Panama City 64 83 66 83 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 63 88 64 89 / 10 20 10 10 Albany 63 88 64 88 / 30 40 20 10 Valdosta 65 90 64 90 / 20 30 20 10 Cross City 62 89 62 89 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 65 79 67 78 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.