Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce de Leon, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 846 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Evening satellite and surface observations show a well-defined upper low trudging eastward over East TX south of a digging broad, northern-stream trough. The former is producing an area of lift supportive of a precipitation shield over LA into MS. This activity is expected to continue tracking east and increase cloud cover/rain chances late tonight/early tomorrow morning across the Central Timezone Counties.

The latest soundings and time-height sections show a very dry airmass, especially at 850-500 mb, beneath a layer of relatively greater moisture. Therefore, any precipitation should be light and non-impactful. Although the timing of precip arrival will overlap with chilly temperatures, sufficiently warm surface conditions are more supportive of sprinkles or light showers of the liquid variety. Another words - a wintry mix appears unlikely.

Minor changes were made to the overall forecast tonight. Nudged up temperatures at Valdosta & Cross City to account for thicker lower clouds pushing northward off the FL Peninsula in association with a weak surface trough.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Clouds increase from west to east late tonight into Wednesday ahead of our next cold front later Wednesday. A few showers are forecast along with the front, but rainfall totals are forecast to generally be less than 0.10", so it won't alleviate the ongoing drought conditions. Temperatures cool into the middle to upper 30s across much of the region tonight. Filtered sunshine and the arrival of a few showers Wednesday afternoon should keep daytime highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A couple of cold fronts are forecast to swing through the region later this week into the weekend. The cold front mentioned in the Short Term portion swings through Wednesday night. Gusty northerly winds develop following the front, ushering in much colder weather for Thursday as highs struggle to get out of the upper 40s to near 50.

A strong area of high pressure settles overhead Thursday night into Friday morning, opening the door for a very cold Friday morning.
There is a high (80-100%) chance of many locations away from the immediate coast experiencing a Hard Freeze with temperatures at or below 25 degrees. There is a low to medium (20 to 40%) chance of temperatures tumbling into the teens across portions of southern Georgia and Alabama Friday morning.

Subtly warmer weather arrives Friday afternoon as the surface high pressure scoots east of the region. Temperatures warm into the 50s Friday afternoon and back into the upper 50s to middle 60s Saturday afternoon. Another cold front races through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air for Sunday night into Monday. There is currently a medium (40 to 60%) chance of another hard freeze, or temperatures below 25 degrees.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mainly VFR conds are expected the next 24 hrs with a couple of potential exceptions: 1) VLD where borderline MVFR cigs are pushing northward from the SE Big Bend; 2) DHN near the end of the TAF period when MVFR stratus pushes in from the NW. Light precip is forecast to trek across the region early tmrw morning, but is not fcst to produce aviation impacts. Used the latest HRRR to time precip for PROB30 groups intro'd for -SHRA amidst prevailing VCSH. Light to calm winds turn westerly to ~10 kts by the aftn.

MARINE
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Favorable marine conditions continue tonight as high pressure remains in control. Winds turn more westerly Wednesday ahead of a cold front and increase to moderate to fresh Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Northwesterly gusts near gale force will follow that front on Thursday with the strongest winds west of Apalachicola. Winds will quickly decrease on Thursday night and Friday as a high center passes directly across the waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the waters on Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Fair to good dispersions return to the region Wednesday. Increasing westerly transport winds are expected ahead of a cold front that swings through Wednesday night. A few showers are forecast along with the front, with the most likely rainfall totals forecast to be less than 0.10". Strong, gusty winds follow the front Thursday, supporting another day of good to excellent dispersions. MinRH will start to near critical values across our northern Georgia Districts Thursday with them becoming a bit more widespread across Georgia into the Florida Big Bend Friday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days. Forecast rainfall totals are generally forecast to be less than 0.10". There is a low, less than 20 percent, chance of rainfall exceeding 0.25" with the highest chances along the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 39 59 41 49 / 10 40 10 0 Panama City 44 62 40 51 / 30 30 30 0 Dothan 39 57 34 46 / 40 20 10 0 Albany 37 57 37 47 / 20 30 10 0 Valdosta 38 58 39 49 / 10 40 10 10 Cross City 45 63 42 56 / 0 40 40 10 Apalachicola 44 60 42 51 / 20 50 50 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.