Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spanish Fort, AL
December 1, 2023 11:10 AM CST (17:10 UTC)
Sunrise 6:29AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 9:45PM Moonset 11:29AM
GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 932 Am Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of today..South winds 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Rest of today..South winds 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 932 Am Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. In the wake of a cold front, light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into Monday.
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. In the wake of a cold front, light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into Monday.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMOB 011129 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 529 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
A complex weather forecast evolves today through tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms overspread the area this morning, likely reducing ceiling and visibility to MVFR/IFR categories at times.
This round of storms moves out, and things should improve back to VFR by the afternoon hours with lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms. After sunset, IFR to LIFR ceilings settle in, along with a renewed round of heavy showers and thunderstorms, particularly after midnight. Patchy dense sea fog becomes possible along the immediate coast, particularly in Alabama which could reduce ceilings and visibility significantly late tonight into Saturday morning. Low level wind shear remains prevalent this morning west of the I-65 corridor around 40 to 45kts at 2kft AGL.
This is expected to improve over the next couple of hours through mid morning. MM/25
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area through Saturday. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist and strengthen through the near term period as an upper level trough over the south-central U.S. continues to amplify. A shortwave embedded within the subtropical jet works its way across the CWA tonight into Saturday which will likely be the trigger for the most widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorm potential. More details on this will follow. Overall temperatures are expected to stay warm, with temperatures this morning gradually warming as strong warm air advection continues. By daybreak, expect to wake up to middle 50's inland and middle to upper 60's near the coast. Highs will top out in the middle 70's for all locations. Lows tonight don't vary much, only falling into the middle to upper 60's. Saturday highs are a little cooler thanks to convective coverage, topping out in the lower 70's.
The forecast remains a bit complex, with CAMs still varying a fair amount on the convective evolution for 1) this morning with things moving in from south-central Louisiana and 2) with how tonight into Saturday evolves. It does seem reasonable to expect ongoing convection to continue to shift east, with heavier precipitation likely reaching southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama near or just after daybreak. This will gradually spread east into south-central Alabama and the Florida panhandle by mid to late morning. CAMs suggest in this convection's wake that things will dry out temporarily. This is supported by the current radar evolution so I have opted to reduce PoPs this afternoon west of the I-65 corridor by a category. The "drier" period will be short lived as our next round of convection will likely start up tonight and last through at least Saturday. This is where models do diverge quite a bit on corridors of heavier rainfall potential, which will largely depend on how far inland the marine warm front can make it. There does seem to be some overlap on the coastal counties of Alabama into the Florida panhandle being a potential bullseye for higher rainfall totals, which would make sense if the marine warm front stalls here.
Right now, it looks like much of the CWA should see at least one to two inches of rainfall, with the coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida panhandle receiving a total of 3 to 6 inches through Sunday.
If that front stalls over the coastal counties and we see extensive training of storms, rainfall totals could locally exceed 6 inches.
This could introduce the potential for flash flooding in urban areas where water can not drain quickly/efficiently.
Outside of heavy rainfall, the other threat will be the potential for severe thunderstorms. While ample shear and MLCAPE will be present, particularly nearer the coast, storms may struggle to become severe thanks to extensive storm interactions across the area. With that said, the presence of the surface boundary draped across coastal counties could be enough of a focus for storms to organize and have the potential to produce strong to damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Further inland, the threat seems much more conditional and likely limited to an isolated instance of strong to damaging wind gusts. Without a surface boundary to focus things, any tornado threat should remain confined more to the coast.
The main caveat to this is if the marine warm front can move sufficiently inland Saturday. If this is the case then a larger portion of the CWA could see a better, albeit still marginal, threat for severe weather including damaging winds and tornadoes.
The severe threat will linger through the entire near term period into Saturday.
A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect for the AL/FL coast through Saturday, likely continuing into portions of the short term period. In addition to this, our first taste of potential sea fog this season might try to sneak up on us Friday night into Saturday morning between rounds of convection along the AL coast and into adjacent marine waters. Water temperatures have sufficiently cooled into the upper 50's to lower 60's, and with lower 70's dewpoints being advected over this we could see a favorable setup for sea fog development across the MS Sound into Mobile Bay which would have significant visibility impacts to immediate coastal communities. For now, have opted to introduce patchy dense fog to the forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning for those areas and acknowledge the potential need for a dense fog advisory for areas/widespread dense sea fog if confidence increases. MM/25
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to shift east of the area Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front moves across the area.
A much drier airmass will begin to move into the area Sunday with rain ending from west to east. High temps on Sunday will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid/upper 40s inland to mid 50s near the coast. /13
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Much drier airmass expected over the area during the long term period. We will get a reinforcing cold front move across the region on Tuesday, but this should be a dry frontal passage. No PoPs expected through the period. It will be cool again next week, with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. /12
MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Moderate to strong southeasterly to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. In the wake of a cold front, light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into Monday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for gulf waters 20 to 60 nautical miles out through 9 AM. Tonight into Saturday morning the potential exists for the development of dense sea fog along and south of the Alabama coastline. Confidence on this is low at this time, however if confidence increases a dense fog advisory may become necessary in future forecast packages. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 66 72 62 70 50 67 45 / 80 90 100 80 30 0 0 0 Pensacola 75 68 73 66 71 54 67 48 / 80 90 100 90 50 0 0 0 Destin 75 69 74 67 74 56 69 50 / 80 90 100 90 70 10 0 0 Evergreen 74 64 72 61 71 46 66 38 / 80 90 100 90 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 75 65 72 58 67 46 64 40 / 80 90 100 60 10 0 0 0 Camden 73 64 71 58 67 45 62 38 / 80 90 100 80 30 0 0 0 Crestview 75 65 73 63 72 47 67 40 / 80 90 100 90 60 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 529 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
A complex weather forecast evolves today through tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms overspread the area this morning, likely reducing ceiling and visibility to MVFR/IFR categories at times.
This round of storms moves out, and things should improve back to VFR by the afternoon hours with lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms. After sunset, IFR to LIFR ceilings settle in, along with a renewed round of heavy showers and thunderstorms, particularly after midnight. Patchy dense sea fog becomes possible along the immediate coast, particularly in Alabama which could reduce ceilings and visibility significantly late tonight into Saturday morning. Low level wind shear remains prevalent this morning west of the I-65 corridor around 40 to 45kts at 2kft AGL.
This is expected to improve over the next couple of hours through mid morning. MM/25
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area through Saturday. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist and strengthen through the near term period as an upper level trough over the south-central U.S. continues to amplify. A shortwave embedded within the subtropical jet works its way across the CWA tonight into Saturday which will likely be the trigger for the most widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorm potential. More details on this will follow. Overall temperatures are expected to stay warm, with temperatures this morning gradually warming as strong warm air advection continues. By daybreak, expect to wake up to middle 50's inland and middle to upper 60's near the coast. Highs will top out in the middle 70's for all locations. Lows tonight don't vary much, only falling into the middle to upper 60's. Saturday highs are a little cooler thanks to convective coverage, topping out in the lower 70's.
The forecast remains a bit complex, with CAMs still varying a fair amount on the convective evolution for 1) this morning with things moving in from south-central Louisiana and 2) with how tonight into Saturday evolves. It does seem reasonable to expect ongoing convection to continue to shift east, with heavier precipitation likely reaching southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama near or just after daybreak. This will gradually spread east into south-central Alabama and the Florida panhandle by mid to late morning. CAMs suggest in this convection's wake that things will dry out temporarily. This is supported by the current radar evolution so I have opted to reduce PoPs this afternoon west of the I-65 corridor by a category. The "drier" period will be short lived as our next round of convection will likely start up tonight and last through at least Saturday. This is where models do diverge quite a bit on corridors of heavier rainfall potential, which will largely depend on how far inland the marine warm front can make it. There does seem to be some overlap on the coastal counties of Alabama into the Florida panhandle being a potential bullseye for higher rainfall totals, which would make sense if the marine warm front stalls here.
Right now, it looks like much of the CWA should see at least one to two inches of rainfall, with the coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida panhandle receiving a total of 3 to 6 inches through Sunday.
If that front stalls over the coastal counties and we see extensive training of storms, rainfall totals could locally exceed 6 inches.
This could introduce the potential for flash flooding in urban areas where water can not drain quickly/efficiently.
Outside of heavy rainfall, the other threat will be the potential for severe thunderstorms. While ample shear and MLCAPE will be present, particularly nearer the coast, storms may struggle to become severe thanks to extensive storm interactions across the area. With that said, the presence of the surface boundary draped across coastal counties could be enough of a focus for storms to organize and have the potential to produce strong to damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Further inland, the threat seems much more conditional and likely limited to an isolated instance of strong to damaging wind gusts. Without a surface boundary to focus things, any tornado threat should remain confined more to the coast.
The main caveat to this is if the marine warm front can move sufficiently inland Saturday. If this is the case then a larger portion of the CWA could see a better, albeit still marginal, threat for severe weather including damaging winds and tornadoes.
The severe threat will linger through the entire near term period into Saturday.
A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect for the AL/FL coast through Saturday, likely continuing into portions of the short term period. In addition to this, our first taste of potential sea fog this season might try to sneak up on us Friday night into Saturday morning between rounds of convection along the AL coast and into adjacent marine waters. Water temperatures have sufficiently cooled into the upper 50's to lower 60's, and with lower 70's dewpoints being advected over this we could see a favorable setup for sea fog development across the MS Sound into Mobile Bay which would have significant visibility impacts to immediate coastal communities. For now, have opted to introduce patchy dense fog to the forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning for those areas and acknowledge the potential need for a dense fog advisory for areas/widespread dense sea fog if confidence increases. MM/25
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to shift east of the area Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front moves across the area.
A much drier airmass will begin to move into the area Sunday with rain ending from west to east. High temps on Sunday will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid/upper 40s inland to mid 50s near the coast. /13
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Much drier airmass expected over the area during the long term period. We will get a reinforcing cold front move across the region on Tuesday, but this should be a dry frontal passage. No PoPs expected through the period. It will be cool again next week, with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. /12
MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Moderate to strong southeasterly to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. In the wake of a cold front, light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into Monday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for gulf waters 20 to 60 nautical miles out through 9 AM. Tonight into Saturday morning the potential exists for the development of dense sea fog along and south of the Alabama coastline. Confidence on this is low at this time, however if confidence increases a dense fog advisory may become necessary in future forecast packages. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 66 72 62 70 50 67 45 / 80 90 100 80 30 0 0 0 Pensacola 75 68 73 66 71 54 67 48 / 80 90 100 90 50 0 0 0 Destin 75 69 74 67 74 56 69 50 / 80 90 100 90 70 10 0 0 Evergreen 74 64 72 61 71 46 66 38 / 80 90 100 90 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 75 65 72 58 67 46 64 40 / 80 90 100 60 10 0 0 0 Camden 73 64 71 58 67 45 62 38 / 80 90 100 80 30 0 0 0 Crestview 75 65 73 63 72 47 67 40 / 80 90 100 90 60 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 10 mi | 53 min | 67°F | 62°F | 30.00 | |||
| PTOA1 | 10 mi | 53 min | 64°F | 61°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 12 mi | 53 min | S 6G | 65°F | 60°F | 29.99 | ||
| MBPA1 | 18 mi | 53 min | 65°F | 64°F | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 21 mi | 86 min | S 2.9 | 74°F | 30.01 | 73°F | ||
| EFLA1 | 22 mi | 53 min | 63°F | 63°F | ||||
| DILA1 | 35 mi | 53 min | WNW 12G | 65°F | 29.98 | |||
| FRMA1 | 35 mi | 53 min | W 9.9G | 67°F | 30.00 | 65°F | ||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 39 mi | 86 min | S 2.9 | 65°F | 30.06 | 64°F | ||
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 41 mi | 53 min | S 8.9G | 72°F | 67°F | 30.00 | ||
| PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 45 mi | 53 min | 60°F | |||||
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 49 mi | 41 min | SSE 16G | 73°F | 70°F | 29.99 | 71°F | |
| PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 49 mi | 59 min | 0G | 64°F | 29.98 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBFM MOBILE DOWNTOWN,AL | 13 sm | 17 min | S 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.97 | |
| KCQF H L SONNY CALLAHAN,AL | 19 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 30.00 | |
| KMOB MOBILE RGNL,AL | 20 sm | 14 min | S 07 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.96 |
Wind History from BFM
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:58 AM CST 1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM CST Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM CST -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM CST Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:58 AM CST 1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM CST Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM CST -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM CST Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM CST 1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM CST Moonset
Fri -- 01:39 PM CST -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM CST Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM CST 1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM CST Moonset
Fri -- 01:39 PM CST -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM CST Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Mobile, AL,
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