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FXUS64 KEWX 051120 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 520 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Upper pattern early this morning consists of ridging over the western CONUS, a weak clipper trough moving into the southern portions of the Great Lakes, and mainly zonal flow downstream from there across the eastern US that is progged to amplify as the clipper digs ESEward. A band of jet-induced cirrus to our S/SE has it's northern edge across our far SE counties, and this will likely continue through today. At the surface, high pressure centered nearby is keeping winds light to calm, and so temperatures have been able to drop into the upper 30s at many of our typical cold-air- drainage observation stations. Elsewhere, lows will remain in the low to mid 40s.

As we move through the short term period, the upper ridge axis will drift east to nearly overhead by Wednesday evening. After a seasonally warm day with highs in the 68-75 degree range, a weak cold front will attempt to backdoor it's way into our northeastern areas late tonight as the sfc high strengthens across the mid-south.
Look for lows similar to this morning, perhaps 1-3 degrees warmer, followed again by a beautiful daytime with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Winds will remain light, and despite a shift to the ENE behind the front that will stall and fizzle, will eventually settle on southerly to southeasterly areawide late in the day Wednesday. Some slight increase in sfc moisture will occur, especially along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

On Thursday morning southerly flow will be back in place across the area with 15-25 knots at 850 mb leading to the return of nocturnal stratus across much of the area. With the increase in expected cloud cover, lows should be warmer bottoming out in the middle 40s in the east to the middle 50s in the west. Southerly flow will continue through Friday with the warming trend also continuing. Highs Thursday will top out in the middle 60s to lower 70s and into the middle to upper 70s on Friday.

The next upper trough will pass through the Central Plains on Friday night into Saturday morning and will send the next cold front into South-Central Texas Saturday most likely during the morning hours.
The base of the upper trough will be to our north and therefore the best rain chances will be to our north and east, but some low chances for rain will be in place across the eastern counties Saturday morning. Overall, not expecting much in the way of accumulations but some places could see a tenth of an inch or more. Cooler weather will filter into the area during the afternoon Saturday. Lows Sunday morning will be back in the 30s and 40s. Some mid-30s are expected in the Hill Country but am not expecting any widespread freezing temperatures across the region. Highs Sunday will be near 60 to middle 60s with a slight increase into the middle to upper 60s on Monday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

The northern edge of a high cirrus deck is near/just south of the I-35 terminals, but should shift back southward today. Very light and variable winds are forecast with high pressure in control. Still expecting weak NW drainage winds at KSAT overnight, then ENE/NE winds at about 5-8 kts will try to move into the I-35 terminals on Wednesday as a weakening cold front pushes in from the northeast. VFR conditions remain forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 45 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 47 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 39 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 41 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 42 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 45 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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