Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Creola, AL

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 521 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/

New AVIATION

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North winds will become northeast and diminish today, remaining light through tonight. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Dry and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday with surface high pressure building in from the north and semi-zonal flow aloft. Highs will not make it out of the 50s today, moderating a few degrees for Tuesday with upper 50s/low 60s expected. We will drop back down into the 30s for tonight, except for low 40s at the beaches. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

The weather will quickly change Tuesday night as a surface low develops off the upper TX coast in response to a shortwave moving into the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley. This surface low will move across the northern Gulf late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Rain will overspread the area after midnight and persist through Wednesday morning. Strong 850-700mb frontogenesis will focus across the southern half of the area, resulting in periods of moderate to heavy rain. As a result, rain totals of 1-2 inches are expected across most of the forecast area, with the highest totals focused along the coastal counties.
Cannot rule out localized amounts up to 3" for coastal areas due to the aforementioned frontogenetic forcing. However, we are not anticipating any significant flooding issues at this time. The rain is forecast to quickly shift east of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon as the surface low quickly moves of the southeast Atlantic coast. In the wake of the low, arctic high pressure will begin to build into the area as a strong northern stream shortwave amplifies over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. It will turn very cold Wednesday night with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s far inland with upper 20s/lower 30s along the coast.
Breezy conditions given the strength of the cold air advection will lower wind chills into the upper single digits/lower teens far inland with teens/20s along the coast. It should be noted that the current forecast low for Mobile for Thursday morning is 27 and the record low for the date is 26. 34/JFB

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Thursday and Thursday night will be the coldest day/night of this period with the arctic airmass becoming entrenched across the region. Highs Thursday will not make it out of the 40s, which is is typically very hard to do for late February. To put it in perspective, for February 20th, Mobile has only had seven days with highs in the 40s, with the record low high temperature of 47 set in 1940. Pensacola has had 6 days of highs in the 40s, with a record low high of 44 set in 1921. The current forecast highs for that day are 48 in Mobile and 49 in Pensacola. Guidance has continued to trend colder, so these forecast highs may need to be lowered further in upcoming forecasts.

Record lows are possible for Friday morning as well with lows dropping into the upper teens/low 20s well inland and mid to upper 20s across the coastal counties. Record lows for February 21st, are 28 in Mobile and 21 in Pensacola, so Mobile would be more likely to break the record.

We will slowly moderate temperatures on Friday through the weekend, but temperatures will remain below normal. Rain chances enter back into the forecast picture Saturday night into Sunday with a passing shortwave in active zonal upper level flow. 34/JFB

MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Strong offshore flow early this morning will diminish by mid to late morning as high pressure settles in from the north. The Small Craft Advisory will expire at 9am this morning.

After a brief period of lighter winds this afternoon through early Tuesday, east to southeast winds will begin to strengthen Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night in response to a surface low developing over the far northwest Gulf. The low will track across the northern Gulf, just south of the forecast area, Wednesday morning. Moderate to strong east winds will become offshore by Wednesday afternoon after the low moves east of the area. Strong offshore flow will persist Wednesday night into Thursday as arctic high pressure move in from the north and west. Seas over the Gulf waters will build to 4-7 ft in response. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for this period. The offshore flow will diminish by Friday with seas subsiding. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 36 61 47 56 27 48 25 50 / 0 0 90 70 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 41 62 51 59 33 49 29 51 / 0 0 90 90 10 0 0 0 Destin 44 62 53 61 36 50 31 53 / 0 0 80 90 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 32 61 43 55 26 45 22 51 / 0 0 80 80 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 32 59 40 50 21 43 20 47 / 0 0 90 50 0 0 0 0 Camden 30 58 40 51 23 42 20 47 / 0 0 80 70 0 0 0 0 Crestview 32 63 46 58 31 49 25 52 / 0 0 80 90 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.