Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Creola, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 172329 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 629 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A lobe of shortwave energy swept around the base of a closed upper low passing north of the Southeast earlier today, with a weak cold front having moved south over the Southeast in response.
Looking at dewpoints, the boundary either lies north of I-20, or looking at surface temperatures, a boundary lies just north of Highway 84. The current satellite and radar loops show a developed storm near Jackson, MS at 3pm. Will need to monitor later this afternoon into the evening hours, depending on which boundary the storms focus on. Guidance is advertising MLCapes rebounding into the 2000-2500J/kg range along and north of Highway 84, with DCapes in the 800-1100J/kg range and EBWD shear to around 40kts over the same area. Enough for strong to marginally severe storms, with strong winds the primary threat. Even with the upper ridge weakening over the forecast area and nearby this afternoon, mid level lapse rates remain low enough to limit hail development.
Model soundings show a generally linear profile, with little directional shear, so am not expecting any organized rotating storms. With storm movement in a generally easterly direction, overrunning of any surface boundary is generally not expected, but if a local surge from a storm moves a portion of the southern boundary south enough, local water issues become a possibility, albeit small one. Will need to monitor the late afternoon and early evening hours for the rowdy storms. For Sunday, guidance is advertising pretty much the same severe parameters, but with a lack of upper initiator. The beginning of the re-building of an upper ridge over the Southeast will help to deflect any shortwave energy northward. For the forecast area, this places any development to areas along the northern border of the forecast area and north.

Upper level high pressure remains in control through the Near Term, with temperatures remaining well above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected this afternoon and again Sunday, with mid 80s along the coast. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s inland from the coast, mid to upper 70s along the coast. Heat Indices are still expected to top out in the 89-103 degree range this afternoon, with 95-100 expected Sunday.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into the coming week.
/16

An upper trof progresses across the central states and into the northeast states Monday into Wednesday, after which the upper trof amplifies to encompass much of the eastern states before slowly beginning to move off into the western Atlantic on Saturday. A surface low associated with the upper trof is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area on Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected for the area through Tuesday, with the exception of a small chance of rain for a portion of Choctaw county Tuesday afternoon. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Tuesday night over interior areas, then have stayed with chance pops areawide for Wednesday as the front approaches and then moves through the area. Progressively drier and cooler air flows into the region through Thursday night in the wake of the front, then deep layer moisture begins to improve on Saturday. Dry conditions are expected for the forecast area Thursday and Friday, and continue for Saturday as well as while deep layer moisture will be improving by that point, this does not look sufficient to support precipitation. Highs on Monday and Tuesday range from the lower 90s inland to the mid 80s at the immediate coast, then trend cooler into Thursday to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the upper 60s to mid 70s then trend cooler by Thursday night to range from the lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Temperatures then moderate during the remainder of the period, with lows Friday night ranging from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast, and highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s. A low risk of rip currents on Monday become a moderate risk for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29
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