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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 900 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 900 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..
generally light southeasterly winds are expected today before strengthening tonight and tomorrow as the next weather system approaches the area. Cautionary to advisory level conditions are expected across the western waters tonight, especially 20 to 60 nm offshore west of apalachicola. Showers and Thunderstorms also return to the forecast with maritime convection being capable of gusty winds, occasional lightning strikes, and potential for waterspouts. Rainy weather persists through the weekend before clearing the waters from west to east on Monday after frontal passage. North winds 10 to 15 knots develop behind the front.

FXUS62 KTAE 301355 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 855 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 853 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

The previous forecast appears to be on track. Clouds will increase across the area from west to east today. Fairly cool high temperatures are expected, generally ranging from the low to mid 60s. Southeasterly winds will kick off a fairly robust moisture return across the region today.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Freeze warning continues through 8AM EST / 7AM CST. As of early this morning, temperatures have fallen to at or just below freezing across a majority of the area away from urban centers. Patches of high cirrus along with a light wind from time to time does help limit the full potential of radiational cooling. Nevertheless, still think there is time for more areas to reach freezing before sunrise.

Surface high pressure is located over the area and is progged to slide east today. Initial calm to light surface and low level winds will become east to southeast later today. This will help begin warm air advection and moderating temperatures as the cool high pressure moves away and thickness values increase.

Looking upstream, surface low pressure will develop in west Texas in response to a closed upper low exiting the four corners. A warm front will sharpen over the western/central Gulf with overrunning moisture and cloudiness on southwesterly mid level flow invading our western zones during the evening and overnight hours. Showers develop overnight with a low chance for a rumble of thunder.

After a cool start to the day, highs will reach the low to mid 60s as the warm air advection gets started. Lows tonight may occur before midnight with a steady or slow increase to temperatures towards daybreak Friday. Lows will fall to the upper 40s in the wiregrass to mid 50s in coastal areas.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 411 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Friday marks the start of a wet/unsettled pattern that persists through the weekend. We are slated to be well within the warm sector of a frontal low racing through the OH Valley. Robust moist advection off the Gulf from a strengthening SE LLJ of ~25-35 kts should lead to a rapid surge in dewpoints above 60 degrees. The quickly moderating airmass will also be adequately sheared and unstable to support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. The SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
in the Day 2 Convective Outlook for SE AL & FL Panhandle - valid 12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday. Isolated damaging wind gusts (1) and perhaps a tornado or two (2) are the primary threats. The main limiting factors are fleeting upper-level support and only modest instability at best given the expected high coverage of clouds.

The greatest rain chances are initially over the western portions of the service area, with the 6Z HRRR depicting batches of convection focusing across SE AL first around midday Friday, followed by another wave moving towards the Panhandle off the Gulf later that afternoon/evening. The 0Z HRRR paintball shows a similar solution.
As the low continues accelerating northeastward, its attendant front essentially gets "orphaned" and stagnates across the region. The presence of this SW-NW oriented boundary will maintain a focus for widespread cloud cover and on/off precipitation. This setup warrants some concerns for heavy rainfall inducing localized flooding. As such, the WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) in place for locations mainly west of the Flint River in the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Temperatures will seem like a far cry from what we have been experiencing the past couple days. Forecast highs are in the 70s (isolated 80) while overnight lows only drop to the low/mid 60s.
There is potential for lower daytime readings from rain-cooled air.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Wet weather continues thanks to the stalled frontal boundary presiding over an unseasonably moist airmass. On and off rainfall (heavy at times) with a slight chance of thunder over likely saturated grounds from Friday and Saturday will make for additional flooding concerns, especially where convection trains over the same locations repeatedly. The WPC has much of the service area (outside of the SE FL Big Bend) under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.
Making matters potentially worse is us being placed in the right- entrance region of a strengthening upper jet across the Appalachians, providing an additional source of lift via divergence aloft late this weekend.

Conditions improve from west to east come Monday when the mean upper trough moves east of the Great Lakes and kicks the stubborn front to the curb. Cooler and drier weather takes over the remainder of the long-term period. Forecast high temperatures cool from the 70s on Sunday to 60s next week. Forecast lows decrease by about 10 degrees each successive day from Sunday (60s) to Tuesday (40s). Upper 30s arrive in portions of SE AL & SW GA by Thursday morning.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

IFR/LIFR conds continue at ECP and is expected to last through 13Z at which time a gradual return to VFR should occur. VFR will continue at the other TAF sites for the duration of the TAF period. Surface high pressure will move east with a gradual veering of the winds to southeast later today. A low pressure system will take shape to our west with mid clouds moving into our western areas including ECP and DHN and midnight tonight. Rain appears to hold off until after this set of TAFs.

MARINE
Issued at 411 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Surface high pressure maintains light easterly winds today, but gives way to strengthening onshore flow ahead of an area of low pressure moving through the Mississippi Valley tonight and tomorrow.
Cautionary to advisory level conditions are expected across the western legs during that time, especially 20 to 60 nm offshore west of Apalachicola. Showers and thunderstorms also return to the forecast with maritime convection being capable of gusty winds, occasional lightning strikes, and potential for waterspouts. Rainy weather persists through the weekend before clearing the waters from west to east on Monday after frontal passage. North winds 10 to 15 knots develop behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 411 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High pressure will slide east with winds becoming east today and southeast Friday. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms increase beginning tonight from west to east overspreading the area Friday and into the weekend. Southerly transport winds increase beginning Friday as the low level winds strengthen ahead of the next low pressure system. This will also help draw in moisture with mid 20 to mid 30 percent afternoon humidities today over a majority of the area increase to 60 to 80 percent Friday. Aside from low dispersions today, there are no critical fire weather conditions expected.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 411 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

We have one more dry day before quickly transitioning to a much wetter period from Friday into Monday. The latest forecast amounts during that time frame are to 2 to 3+" (isolated higher) mainly west of the Flint River. Localized flooding is possible, especially in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Locations that experience heavy rain rates in a short period of time or training convection are also vulnerable.

Current Flash Flood Guidance shows that the following amounts are needed to induce flooding: 2.5-4" in 1 hr, 3-5" in 3 hrs, and 4-6" in 6 hrs. Given relatively dry antecedent conditions, ongoing drought across much of the Tri-State area, and local river levels continuing to run very low, significant flooding is not anticipated.
Rain-free weather is expected for at least the first half of next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 52 73 65 / 0 10 50 70 Panama City 65 55 75 68 / 0 30 70 70 Dothan 60 49 72 62 / 0 30 60 70 Albany 62 49 74 63 / 0 20 40 70 Valdosta 63 51 78 64 / 0 10 30 60 Cross City 69 54 79 64 / 0 10 10 30 Apalachicola 66 59 72 67 / 0 10 50 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ770-772.

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St. Marks
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:01 AM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:27 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:05 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:26 PM EST     1.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Thu -- 02:40 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:27 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:34 PM EST     1.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Florida, Tide feet

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