Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Minette, AL

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024/

New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

While the area is still bone dry today, we will be trending more moist as we head through the day and evening on Sunday. Dewpoints remain in the teens and 20s across the local area this afternoon as a surface high moves overhead. The very dry air that filtered into the region over the past 24 hours will begin to exit to our area overnight and early tomorrow as the surface high slowly slides east.
Surface winds gradually turn southeasterly after midnight and moisture levels begin to trend upward. The moisture really begins to rebound late in the day on Sunday as a weak upper level ridge gets shunted east by a shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains, allowing deep onshore flow to develop overhead. Observed PWATs of 0.5 inches as of 18z today will increase to 1.4-1.6 inches (HRRR ensemble guidance) west of I-65 by Sunday afternoon. The area remains dry through Sunday morning. Rain chances steadily increase as we roll through the afternoon and evening on Sunday, however, we did taper the POPs back a bit as the blended guidance was a bit too aggressive with progression of the rain during the day on Sunday. We can't rule out some isolated showers west of I-65 during the afternoon on Sunday, but the bulk of the rain will remain to our west as a warm front lifts inland along the central Gulf Coast.
Based on ensemble guidance, the probability for rain ramps up after midnight Sunday night into the overnight hours, especially west of I- 65.

Temperatures will be moderating as we roll through the rest of the weekend. Calm winds are expected across inland locations for much of the overnight period with the high overhead. Normally this would lead to another cold overnight period, however, it will be a battle of the calm winds and dry air against the increasing cloud cover and increasing moisture tonight - this will lead to a decent temperature gradient across the area. Fully expect temperatures across south- central Alabama to plunge into the mid to upper 30s overnight given that the cloud cover will hold off a bit longer than locations further west (plus it'll be slightly drier). Across southeast Mississippi, expect temperatures to only fall into the mid to low 40s given the proximity to the increasing moisture and higher cloud cover. Meanwhile, beach communities will settle into the upper 40s overnight and potentially only as low as 50° in communities like Destin. Highs on Sunday will be a solid 7-10° warmer than today given the increasing onshore flow and lows on Sunday night will be nearly 15° warmer than tonight.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through Sunday night. Surf remains around 1 ft through Sunday, but quickly increases to 2-3ft overnight on Sunday. 07/mb

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

The start of the extended period will be quite active as a surface boundary stalls over the local region and embedded shortwave energy passes within the southwesterly flow aloft.
Plenty of deep-layer moisture will advect in from the Gulf, with PWATs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This will allow for multiple rounds of showers (and a few thunderstorms) to spread across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As we go through the day on Tuesday, an amplifying longwave trough over the central US quickly dives southeastward. This will send a strong cold front through the area Tuesday evening, into Tuesday night. In its wake, high pressure builds in, allowing for a much colder/drier airmass to move in on Wednesday and linger through Friday. The high shifts to our east by the end of the week, and temperatures will slowly moderate by Saturday.

Overall at this point, not anticipating much in the way of impacts with this Sunday night through Tuesday night event. QPF amounts from various models/ensembles have trended down over the most recent runs. Most of the deterministic guidance available suggests a 48- hour total of around 2 to 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches. Looking from a probabilistic standpoint, the most aggressive guidance in terms of QPF seems to be the Euro ensembles. Even so, the probabilities of QPF exceeding 4 inches for the full event are only sitting at around 10 to 20 percent over our coastal counties (less than 10 percent for interior counties). And with much of the local region being in a D1/D2 drought and 6-hour FFG sitting at 4 to 6 inches, the overall flash flood risk remains low across the area.
That being said, given the stalled boundary overhead and the high PWAT values, a few localized instances of flooding cannot be ruled out, especially over our urban/poor drainage areas. Instability values on Monday appear to remain negligible due to limited diurnal heating and poor lapse rates. Some very modest instability (on the order of around 400-800 J/kg) may try to work in on Tuesday as lapse rates improve from around 5 C/km to around 6 C/km. This could lead to a few more embedded thunderstorms, and possibly one or two stronger storms (capable of producing gusty winds). Overall, storms both days should remain sub-severe.

Temperatures will be mild prior to the front, with highs on Monday and Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 70s and lows Monday night only in the 60s. After the front passes on Tuesday night, highs will drop into the low to mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will also plummet into the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south for Wednesday and Thursday nights. Temperatures gradually moderate through the end of the week and into the weekend. The rip current risk will be moderate through midweek. /96

MARINE
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

No impacts expected through Sunday. Onshore flow increases to Exercise Caution levels with building seas Sunday night through at least Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are briefly expected early Wednesday in the wake of a front across all bays and the Gulf waters. Advisory headlines will persist for the Gulf waters through early Thursday. Note that frequent gusts to Gale force are possible across the far offshore waters early on Wednesday. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 43 69 60 70 62 73 42 54 / 0 10 40 90 80 90 60 10 Pensacola 47 70 65 73 65 75 46 56 / 0 10 20 80 90 90 90 20 Destin 51 71 65 73 67 74 49 58 / 0 0 20 70 80 90 90 40 Evergreen 37 66 53 71 61 74 42 52 / 0 10 40 90 90 100 70 10 Waynesboro 39 64 55 70 60 70 38 53 / 0 40 80 90 70 80 30 0 Camden 37 63 53 69 60 68 38 51 / 0 20 70 90 80 100 60 10 Crestview 36 68 54 73 63 75 44 54 / 0 10 20 80 80 90 90 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.