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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 934 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of today..East winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Scattered Thunderstorms. Showers.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 934 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southeasterly to southerly flow persists through today, potentially becoming strong well offshore tonight into Friday. Moderate onshore flow persists into the weekend before becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 301802 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening, with overcast high clouds streaming across the region. Rain showers will begin to develop and move from southwest to northeast starting this evening and especially into the overnight hours, when locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms become possible.
Generally low-end VFR to MVFR conditions are possible overnight, along with brief reductions to IFR in some of the heavier activity. Lastly, southerly low level wind shear of around 40 kts may be possible across interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama starting late this evening through Friday morning. At this time, the best wind shear should remain well north of the TAF sites to include at this issuance. /96

NEAR TERM
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

We go from cold and dry this morning/afternoon to a much warmer and wetter forecast tonight into Friday. Southwest to westerly flow aloft today becomes predominately southwesterly by Friday as a shortwave takes on a negative tilt and transits the ArkLaTex region.
Strong warm air advection will be ongoing ahead of this allowing for the area to quickly warm from highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's today to highs in the lower to middle 70's by Friday. Likewise, expect a substantial increase in humidity as upper 60's to lower 70's dewpoints work their way into the forecast area Friday. Morning temperatures Friday will be much warmer starting off in the upper 40's to lower 50's inland and middle to upper 50's nearer the coast.

Friday will likely be an interesting weather day across the area as a transient shortwave embedded within the broader southwesterly flow aloft sparks off convection across the forecast area. Strong warm air advection will give us adequate low level instability to work with for thunderstorms. Adequate shear for organized convection will be in place across the area (around 50kts effective shear) and models generally agree on about 500 to 1,000j/kg of MLCAPE developing Friday afternoon. It seems reasonable that some strong to severe storms are possible on Friday, which is highlighted by the SPC convective outlook with a marginal risk for severe weather over the entire forecast area. There's a fair amount of uncertainty in the convective evolution, but overall the potential for a strong to damaging wind gust and/or a tornado are possible Friday.

The other story will be potential for heavy rainfall late Thursday night into Friday. Overall rainfall totals through Friday afternoon will likely range from a half inch to an inch, with locally upwards of two inches of rain. Some CAMs are enthused about a corridor of heavy rainfall across coastal counties of AL into the FL panhandle as the surface marine warm front gets hung up just onshore. If this were to happen, the potential would exist for some flash flooding in our urban areas where storms would be able to train over the same locations. Lastly, a high risk of rip currents will go into effect for tonight through at least Friday night, likely lingering into the short and early extended periods. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 57 74 64 74 63 71 51 66 / 60 90 80 90 70 50 30 10 Pensacola 59 74 66 73 66 71 55 66 / 50 90 80 90 70 70 30 10 Destin 59 74 67 75 67 74 57 68 / 40 90 90 90 70 70 40 10 Evergreen 48 73 62 74 61 71 48 67 / 50 80 80 100 70 60 30 10 Waynesboro 51 75 61 72 60 69 47 64 / 80 70 80 90 60 30 20 10 Camden 48 72 60 71 59 68 48 63 / 60 80 80 90 70 50 30 10 Crestview 49 73 63 74 62 72 50 68 / 40 90 90 90 70 70 40 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Thu -- 03:09 AM CST     1.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:54 PM CST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:45 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Thu -- 12:53 AM CST     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:49 PM CST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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Mobile, AL,