Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Woodbine, GA

UPDATE

Late morning surface analysis depicts a reinforcing cold front pushing southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the Tennessee Valley
Aloft
a potent shortwave trough diving quickly southeastward through the Ohio Valley was reinforcing a deep trough that was in place across the eastern half of the nation. Latest GOES- East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a dry air mass prevails across the southeastern states, with PWATS rising to around one-half inch across southeast GA, while values were closer to one quarter or one third of an inch across northeast and north central FL. The morning sounding at Jacksonville indicated that stronger northwesterly winds were located just off the surface, with speeds of 25-30 mph located at only 700 feet. Following a surprisingly frosty start to the morning, full sunshine, a dry air mass, and strengthening westerly winds were allowing temperatures to climb quickly through the 40s and lower 50s as of 16Z. Dewpoints were generally in the 20s across our area.

The reinforcing shortwave trough moving through the Ohio Valley will dive quickly southeastward across the southern Appalachians this afternoon, reaching the Carolina coast this evening. This feature will push a dry cold front into the southeastern states late this afternoon, with this feature crossing our area during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday. Our local pressure gradient will tighten downstream of this approaching front this afternoon, with full sunshine and a dry air mass allowing the stronger winds just off the surface that were sampled by this morning's sounding at Jacksonville to mix down towards the noon hour. The dry air mass and sunny conditions should allow temperatures to rise to the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Given the ongoing drought conditions and humidity values plunging to near critical thresholds this afternoon, we opted to issue a rare Red Flag Warning for most locations east of the I-75 corridor in northeast and north central FL, including a small portion of inland southeast GA.
This warning will go into effect at Noon and will continue through 6 PM this evening. Strong offshore winds will allow critically low humidity values to reach coastal locations this afternoon, with breezy conditions expected to persist into the early evening hours tonight. An Elevated Fire Danger is expected elsewhere, even though minimum humidity values should stay just above critical thresholds.

Winds will shift to northwesterly in the wake of the frontal passage by the predawn hours on Saturday, with late arriving cold air advection dropping lows into the upper 30s for inland locations north of the I-10 corridor, with low to mid 40s prevailing elsewhere. Wind chill values may fall below freezing towards sunrise across inland portions of southeast GA.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Cold and dry conditions with predominantly clear skies will continue through the weekend as the cold air mass settles in over the region on Saturday with winds building from out of the northwest in the afternoon. High pressure over the area will begin to build to the northeast on Sunday with high pressure over the gulf gradually working its way eastward towards Florida, resulting in a less northerly and more westerly prevailing flow before next week. High temperatures for the weekend will range between the upper 50s and lower 60s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to upper 60 for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will rise slightly over the weekend with min temps in upper 20s and lower 30s on Saturday lifting to be in the mid to upper 30s for inland areas by the end of the weekend. Potential for freezing and frost Saturday night and into early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Dry weather conditions will persist through midweek as high pressure over the gulf moves eastward over the Florida peninsula and high pressure ridging extends over the forecast area. Chances for precipitation will increase on Thursday as high pressure moves further off into the Atlantic and a warm front associated with southwesterly flow will extend northward.
Temperatures will warm by the beginning of next week with max and min temps rising to be near and above the seasonal average through midweek.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions through the forecast period with mainly a wind timing forecast in the TAFs. WNW winds this morning back more W through 14-15z with speeds increasing to 8-12 kts and gusts approaching 20 kts. Winds further increase 16-19z with sustained speeds 13-16 kts and gusts around 25 kts as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching dry cold front. Winds subside 00- 06z but remain elevated 10-12 kts with gusts 20-25 kts at the front moves across the terminals. Winds shift to NW trailing the fropa after 06z toward 12z Saturday. A few mid and low clouds at times.

MARINE

West-southwesterly winds will strengthen this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching dry cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail through around sunset for the offshore waters, followed by frequent Gale Force wind gusts from this evening through the early morning hours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Caution level wind speeds near shore will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels later this afternoon, with occasional Gale Force wind gusts expected tonight. Arctic high pressure building towards the Upper Midwest this afternoon in the wake of this cold front will shift southeastward over the Ohio Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds during the morning hours will shift to northerly while gradually decreasing on Saturday afternoon and evening, with speeds falling below Small Craft Advisory levels for the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida by sunset. Winds will briefly shift to northeasterly on Sunday as high pressure begins to build over the Florida peninsula, allowing for winds and seas to diminish. Light westerly winds will then prevail early next week as high pressure remains centered to the south of our local waters.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk in the strong offshore flow with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range Today and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Daytime Dispersions Today And Again On Saturday - Critical Min RH Values Today For Portions Of Ne Fl And Se Ga - Min RH Values In 20S And 30S This Weekend

Gusty westerly winds, gusts from 25 mph to 30 mph possible, combined with severe to extreme Drought conditions and critical RH values prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning across portions of northeast Florida east of I-75 towards the Atlantic coast and Charlton County in southeast Georgia from 12pm to 6pm Today. Elevated Fire Weather conditions also expected for areas not in the current Red Flag Warning.
Additionally, elevated dispersions will develop as winds and gusts begin to increase during the afternoon to early evening hours Today.

High pressure conditions will build through the weekend with humidity levels gradually rising into the coming week as the prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the gulf.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland frost and freeze expected Saturday night. Significant fog developments are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 38 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 42 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 41 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 65 45 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 63 44 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 62 44 66 33 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ023-024- 030-031-038-124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325- 333-425-433-533-633.
GA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ470- 472-474.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ470- 472-474.
Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Saturday morning for AMZ470-472-474.