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FXUS64 KFWD 230622 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 122 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/

The recent bout of well above-normal temperatures and oppressive humidity will continue through the Autumnal Equinox today. This is all a result of above-normal, mid-level anomalies associated with a shortwave upper ridge extending northward from Mexico this weekend. Afternoon highs today will reach around or just above the century mark for western North and Central Texas, with our East Texas counties seeing values more in the mid 90s. These areas will be under a little more northwest flow aloft and with more late nocturnal and early morning storms expected, there is enough confidence to leave them out of the Heat Advisory. I am more confident of cloud cover and slightly lower ambient temperatures/heat index values to occur. However, it doesn't mean folks in these areas should ignore the magnitude of the heat as it will still be very humid today with multiple days of a southerly fetch of surface winds having returned dew point temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s across our eastern zones.

Heat index values between 104 to 110 degrees are expected across the remainder of the forecast area, though a few areas in western Central Texas will be borderline to the 105 degree heat index criteria. However, I will include them anyway considering the abnormality of the heat and humidity we're experiencing. Really crossing fingers by next week and thereafter, heat advisories for the 2023 season may finally be in the rear-view mirror! I do have very conditional, isolated storm chances across parts of North Texas late today and this evening. With the hot temperatures and inverted-V type profiles below a high cloud base, any storms would likely be very strong to possibly severe with very gusty winds and some hail possible.

Better rain chances will occur across eastern North Texas late tonight into early Sunday morning. A surface front will be draped just northwest of the forecast area across northwest Texas into southwest/south-central Oklahoma by this evening. A shortwave impulse traversing the crest of the upper ridge around this time should trigger better storm chances along the front. These storms will evolve into an MCS after nightfall as a 30-40kt LLJ feeds into this boundary with a likely MCS tracking southeast with the mean northwest flow aloft. The best chances for showers and storms are expected across our northeast counties overnight through daybreak with the MCS most likely impacting areas east of a Sherman-Denison, to Greenville, to Emory/Canton line with lower chances back as far west as I-35/35E corridors. Similar to any isolated development this afternoon, strong to marginally severe storms will be possible along with the addition of localized heavy rainfall in excess of an inch within the area describe above.

Otherwise, breezy, warm, and humid conditions are expected with lows Sunday in the mid-upper 70s with a reading around 80 degrees possible within the immediate heat island areas of the DFW Metroplex.

05/Martello

LONG TERM
/Issued 328 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023/ /Saturday night through Next Week/

The main story in the long-term period continues to be the potential for storms and severe weather Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a cold front moves across the region. Another mid- level shortwave is expected to move across the southern Plains during the day sending a surface low and cold front southward into the region. While the morning hours will be dry for most of us, areas across the northeast may see a few showers/storms moving from Oklahoma into our area. Increasing destabilization during the afternoon hours could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front across North Texas (mainly to the northwest). As the front continues to push south Sunday evening, storms could become more organized and merge into clusters or a broken line. Latest guidance continues to suggest a favorable environment for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat. At this time, the potential for strong/severe storms appears highest late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, however a slower front could extend the window for severe threat into Sunday night. Additionally, a weaker (or stronger) front could reduce (or increase) the coverage of storms.
Continue to monitor the forecast updates as the details are refined. Otherwise, expect a hot Sunday afternoon with daytime highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

Rain chances will continue on Monday mainly across Central Texas as the frontal boundary loses its push and becomes nearly stationary in this area. Coverage should remain scattered (PoPs:30-50%)
during the day becoming more isolated (PoPs:20-30%) Monday night.
For the rest of the region, enjoy the nice temperatures and clearing skies. High temperatures are expected to stay in the 80s areawide. The rest of the week looks dry and mild with temperatures in 80s to low 90s. The upper-level ridge will take control of the weather pattern resulting in a slight warming trend towards the end of the week.

Sanchez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/

Challenges/Concerns: Minor for possible and brief MVFR at ACT around 15z, as well as southerly winds gusts to +/> 25 kts after 18z. Isolated TSRA late today into tonight.

There is isolated TS chances later today into tonight, but confidence and coverage are too low for mention in the TAFs. SE winds 7-10 kts become S after 12z, then increase to between 10-15 kts by early afternoon with gusts 20-25 kts possible.

D10 airports remain on the cusp of the upper ridge axis and N/NW flow aloft aloft just E-NE of all airports. Outside of brief high MVFR at ACT later this morning, VFR is expected with periods of high clouds AOA FL150 and a few diurnal, high-based Cu around.

05/Martello


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 99 79 98 72 / 0 20 20 50 70 Waco 77 98 77 97 73 / 5 10 5 40 70 Paris 69 94 73 90 68 / 5 10 70 80 70 Denton 75 99 77 98 70 / 5 20 30 50 70 McKinney 74 98 76 95 69 / 0 20 30 50 70 Dallas 78 100 79 98 72 / 0 20 20 50 70 Terrell 74 98 76 95 70 / 5 20 30 60 70 Corsicana 76 98 77 96 73 / 5 10 10 50 80 Temple 76 99 76 98 72 / 5 10 5 30 60 Mineral Wells 75 101 76 100 70 / 5 20 20 40 70

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Central Texas,