Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan's Point Resort, TX
March 28, 2024 4:10 PM CDT (21:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:21 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 10:11 PM Moonset 8:02 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 281951 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ /This Afternoon Through Friday/
A pleasant day is shaping up across North and Central Texas as southerly flow has returned to the region. Southerly winds ranging from 10 to 15 mph will last through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Coupled with ample sunshine, afternoon highs will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s, with a few locations out west reaching into the mid 70s. This will set the stage for a gradual warming trend as we end the week, thanks in no small part to a mid-level ridge that is moving across the Great Plains.
As we move through this evening and tonight, a developing low level jet will overtake the region as the boundary layer decouples with the loss of insolation after sunset. Low level winds just above the growing stable boundary layer will increase to around 45 to 55 knots after midnight tonight, leading to an increase in surface level winds to around 15 to 20 mph overnight. This trend will continue through daybreak on Friday with winds increasing upwards of 25 to 30 mph on Friday afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph.
Along with this, dew points will rise into the low to mid 50s as southerly winds replenish surface moisture across the region.
Afternoon highs on Friday will be slightly warmer, climbing into the mid to upper 70s for most of North and Central Texas. A few locations out west could even hit the 80 degree mark as southerly to southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies prevail.
Reeves
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/
No major changes are in store for the extended forecast period. A warm and breezy weekend is anticipated with afternoon highs primarily in the 80s each day through Monday, as upper level ridging prevails ahead of the next system. Onshore flow will provide ample moisture return ahead of the early week storm chances, with widespread 60+ dewpoints on Sunday.
A broad, positively-tilted upper level trough will drop southward across the Western U.S. before shifting into the Central Plains early next week. Pacific moisture rounding the base of this trough as well as lower level Gulf moisture will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies around through the weekend as well. A surface low in the Central Plains in advance of this trough will keep southerly winds slightly breezy over the weekend with gusts to around 25 mph possible both Saturday and Sunday.
A more organized, deeper surface low should develop in the KS/OK vicinity as the trough approaches on Monday, with a dryline extended southward into western North & Central Texas. Behind the dryline, west-southwest winds will promote temperatures in the mid 80s across the Big Country and western Central Texas. How much instability will be available for storms to develop is still in question, but the overall parameter space is supportive of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A cold front will move through the entire area by Tuesday morning, dropping temperatures back down with highs in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: The countdown for the Total Solar Eclipse on, and we're now 11 days out. No major shifts have occurred with the guidance at this point. A reminder, these ensembles are under dispersed, so the probabilities are not truly calibrated odds. Here's the latest:
-- The GEFS/GEPS ensembles are still similar to climatology in terms of cloud cover probabilities for April 8th, with 40-60% of the members depicting less than 25% cloud cover (sunny to mostly sunny skies) during the eclipse time.
-- As mentioned in the previous discussion, the most likely pattern is conducive for North & Central Texas potentially tending with springtime stratus as we maintain southerly flow. If stratus occurs, the best chances for it eroding are before midday. If we're still holding onto stratus by this time, the outlook is pessimistic for eroding these clouds by eclipse time.
-- More of the ensembles now show a notable signal for precipitation across the region. Out of all the GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles, 40% of them now show precip of at least 0.1" in our area around eclipse time, compared to 25% yesterday.
Bottom Line: We are still far out from April 8th, but confidence is building that there will be a system nearby the path of totality to contend with. Cloud cover trended slightly more optimistic (~10%).
Note this does not contain any ECMWF ensemble data. The more concerning takeaway is the pessimistic trend in precip, which does contain ECMWF data. As to whether or not this system will be timed correctly to provide for optimal viewing, that's still uncertain.
Gordon
AVIATION
/Issued 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ /18z TAFs/
Concerns...Increasing Southerly Winds Through Friday Afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the period.
Mostly clear skies and southerly winds up to 10 to 15 knots will lead to excellent flying conditions through today. A stout 45 to 55 knot low level jet will begin to develop around midnight tonight, resulting in southerly winds gradually increasing into Friday morning. This wind speed trend will continue through Friday afternoon, with southerly wind gusts upwards of 20 to 30 knots.
Reeves
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 77 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 77 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 50 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 53 75 57 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 53 76 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 56 77 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 53 75 59 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 55 78 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 54 77 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 53 78 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ /This Afternoon Through Friday/
A pleasant day is shaping up across North and Central Texas as southerly flow has returned to the region. Southerly winds ranging from 10 to 15 mph will last through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Coupled with ample sunshine, afternoon highs will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s, with a few locations out west reaching into the mid 70s. This will set the stage for a gradual warming trend as we end the week, thanks in no small part to a mid-level ridge that is moving across the Great Plains.
As we move through this evening and tonight, a developing low level jet will overtake the region as the boundary layer decouples with the loss of insolation after sunset. Low level winds just above the growing stable boundary layer will increase to around 45 to 55 knots after midnight tonight, leading to an increase in surface level winds to around 15 to 20 mph overnight. This trend will continue through daybreak on Friday with winds increasing upwards of 25 to 30 mph on Friday afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph.
Along with this, dew points will rise into the low to mid 50s as southerly winds replenish surface moisture across the region.
Afternoon highs on Friday will be slightly warmer, climbing into the mid to upper 70s for most of North and Central Texas. A few locations out west could even hit the 80 degree mark as southerly to southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies prevail.
Reeves
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/
No major changes are in store for the extended forecast period. A warm and breezy weekend is anticipated with afternoon highs primarily in the 80s each day through Monday, as upper level ridging prevails ahead of the next system. Onshore flow will provide ample moisture return ahead of the early week storm chances, with widespread 60+ dewpoints on Sunday.
A broad, positively-tilted upper level trough will drop southward across the Western U.S. before shifting into the Central Plains early next week. Pacific moisture rounding the base of this trough as well as lower level Gulf moisture will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies around through the weekend as well. A surface low in the Central Plains in advance of this trough will keep southerly winds slightly breezy over the weekend with gusts to around 25 mph possible both Saturday and Sunday.
A more organized, deeper surface low should develop in the KS/OK vicinity as the trough approaches on Monday, with a dryline extended southward into western North & Central Texas. Behind the dryline, west-southwest winds will promote temperatures in the mid 80s across the Big Country and western Central Texas. How much instability will be available for storms to develop is still in question, but the overall parameter space is supportive of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A cold front will move through the entire area by Tuesday morning, dropping temperatures back down with highs in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: The countdown for the Total Solar Eclipse on, and we're now 11 days out. No major shifts have occurred with the guidance at this point. A reminder, these ensembles are under dispersed, so the probabilities are not truly calibrated odds. Here's the latest:
-- The GEFS/GEPS ensembles are still similar to climatology in terms of cloud cover probabilities for April 8th, with 40-60% of the members depicting less than 25% cloud cover (sunny to mostly sunny skies) during the eclipse time.
-- As mentioned in the previous discussion, the most likely pattern is conducive for North & Central Texas potentially tending with springtime stratus as we maintain southerly flow. If stratus occurs, the best chances for it eroding are before midday. If we're still holding onto stratus by this time, the outlook is pessimistic for eroding these clouds by eclipse time.
-- More of the ensembles now show a notable signal for precipitation across the region. Out of all the GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles, 40% of them now show precip of at least 0.1" in our area around eclipse time, compared to 25% yesterday.
Bottom Line: We are still far out from April 8th, but confidence is building that there will be a system nearby the path of totality to contend with. Cloud cover trended slightly more optimistic (~10%).
Note this does not contain any ECMWF ensemble data. The more concerning takeaway is the pessimistic trend in precip, which does contain ECMWF data. As to whether or not this system will be timed correctly to provide for optimal viewing, that's still uncertain.
Gordon
AVIATION
/Issued 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ /18z TAFs/
Concerns...Increasing Southerly Winds Through Friday Afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the period.
Mostly clear skies and southerly winds up to 10 to 15 knots will lead to excellent flying conditions through today. A stout 45 to 55 knot low level jet will begin to develop around midnight tonight, resulting in southerly winds gradually increasing into Friday morning. This wind speed trend will continue through Friday afternoon, with southerly wind gusts upwards of 20 to 30 knots.
Reeves
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 77 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 77 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 50 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 53 75 57 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 53 76 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 56 77 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 53 75 59 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 55 78 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 54 77 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 53 78 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KTPL DRAUGHONMILLER CENTRAL TEXAS RGNL,TX | 6 sm | 19 min | SSE 13G16 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 54°F | 47% | 30.13 | |
KILE SKYLARK FIELD,TX | 10 sm | 14 min | SSW 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 45°F | 34% | 30.11 | |
KHLR HOOD AHP,TX | 11 sm | 15 min | SSE 08G16 | 8 sm | Clear | 77°F | 45°F | 32% | 30.11 | |
KGRK ROBERT GRAY AAF,TX | 17 sm | 15 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 43°F | 28% | 30.10 |
Central Texas,
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