Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan's Point Resort, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/

The well advertised warm-up will be underway starting today as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s across our east and upper 90s across our west. A few locations in western Central Texas will likely hit the 100 degree mark this afternoon under full sun with gusty southwesterly winds upwards of 30 mph.
Thankfully our surface moisture remains relatively limited with dew points mixing out into the 40s and 50s where the hottest temperatures reside. This will keep our heat indices below 100 degrees for much of the region. This warm-up can be mainly attributed to large scale subsidence across the region as the Southern Plains is currently sandwiched between two upper level lows on either side of the country. This will also keep weather conditions dry through the short term period with some clouds.

More widespread heat with several locations reaching the triple digit mark can be expected through Wednesday afternoon with the entirety of North and Central Texas at least in the mid 90s. A couple of locations across our southern Central Texas counties will approach heat indices of 105 degrees, and with it being early on in the season, we decided to go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory. It's a good idea to start thinking about heat safety. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade, and limit strenuous activities within peak heating hours.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/NEW/ Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with the previous discussion capturing the main highlights through the end of the week and over the weekend. Warm temperatures will continue with highs in the 90s most days. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Friday, with better chances for isolated to scattered severe weather over the upcoming weekend.

Reeves

Previous Discussion: /Thursday through Monday/

After a bout of record breaking heat on Tuesday and Wednesday, our mid level ridge axis will begin to slowly shift eastward by Thursday. It'll still be warm with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s thanks to continued southwest flow above the surface, but the upper pattern will become more amplified over the western CONUS by late Thursday. A fast moving shortwave will spread into the Central Plains during this time and a weak cold front will slide southward through the Southern Plains, becoming nearly stationary across North Texas by Friday. While strong capping will likely inhibit storm development initially, there is a low chance for a storm to develop during peak heating Friday afternoon along this boundary. A strongly unstable airmass will be in place, but wind fields will generally be weak suggesting that organized severe weather is unlikely. We'll keep PoPs at 20% or less Friday afternoon.

Better chances for storms will arrive on Saturday and Sunday afternoons as another disturbance spreads out of the Desert Southwest and into the Plains. A dryline should be draped across our western counties by early afternoon and will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through peak heating. This setup will be more typical of our Spring severe weather season with strong instability and increasing deep layer shear ahead of the approaching disturbance. Thunderstorm chances will be 30-40% both days with the potential for severe weather. Coverage of storms is expected to be highest across the northern half of the CWA closer to the dryline and better forcing for ascent to the north. The active pattern will continue through the middle part of next week with additional storm chances and instances of severe weather possible on Monday.

Dunn

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18z TAFs/

Concerns...Marginal LLWS overnight into Wednesday morning.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the entire period. Winds today will remain out of the south around 10 to 15 knots with gusts upwards of 25 knots. A more westerly component will be gained overnight with westerly winds taking over through tomorrow at around 10 to 15 knots. Sustained winds overnight appear to stay above 10 knots which will limit LLWS impacts, but will be worth keeping an eye on as the nocturnal jet kicks in overnight at around 45 knots from the west at 2 kft.

Reeves

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 72 101 75 93 / 0 0 0 5 5 Waco 99 72 102 74 97 / 0 0 0 5 5 Paris 87 69 94 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 94 67 99 70 90 / 0 0 0 5 5 McKinney 91 70 99 72 91 / 0 0 0 5 5 Dallas 97 73 102 75 94 / 0 0 0 5 5 Terrell 91 71 97 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 93 73 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 71 103 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 68 102 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ156>160-174- 175.