Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ali Chuk, AZ
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 12:16 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
PMZ017 Northern Gulf Of California- 216 Am Pdt Fri Apr 10 2026
Today - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming N to ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 7 seconds.
Tonight - N of 30n, S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to W late. Elsewhere, sw winds 10 kt, shifting to W to nw late. Seas 3 ft or less, building to 3 to 5 ft late. Period 7 seconds.
Sat - N of 30n, sw to W winds 10 to 15 kt in the morning, becoming variable winds less than 5 kt. Elsewhere, W to nw winds 10 kt, shifting to E to se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 3 ft or less in the afternoon. Period 6 seconds.
Sat night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt N of 30n, and sw to W 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 5 seconds.
Sun - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Sun night - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Mon - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Tue - NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Tue night - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 3 seconds.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ali Chuk, AZ
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS65 KTWC 100922 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 222 AM MST Fri Apr 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
High temperatures will be 4-8 degrees above normal the next couple of days with a slight chance for mostly dry thunderstorms along the AZ/NM border. A series of upper level lows will move through this weekend into next week bringing breezy winds each afternoon through Monday. These systems will also usher in cooler air leading to high temperatures 4-6 degrees below normal early next week and bring a slight chance for precip north and east of Tucson Monday.
DISCUSSION
The upper air pattern will be fairly progressive over the next few days with multiple shortwaves passing through the region. These systems will be mostly dry with the main impact being breezy westerly winds and cooler temperatures.
However today and Saturday there will be a slight chance for buildups along the AZ/NM border and higher terrain of Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties. PoPs were increased slightly from baseline NBM in these areas both days to show the threat of isolated thunderstorms. The HRRR both days doesn't show much in the way of precip, but does show a threat for gusty outflow winds Friday and Saturday afternoons from highway 191 eastward.
Any outflows that do develop will have the potential to kick up dust, which could lead to reduced visibility along I-10 east of Wilcox.
As the shortwaves pass through southwest winds will be elevated with sustained speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-40 mph each afternoon through Monday. Right now the strongest winds will likely occur Sunday and Monday. Relative humidities will likely be below 15 percent for most of southeast Arizona Sunday, which along with high fire danger and the strong winds, will lead to possible critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Sunday afternoon and early evening from central Pima County eastward. Monday the winds will likely be around Red Flag criteria, but RH values are expected to increase as a little surface moisture moves in ahead of another trough. This will lead to a slight chance for showers and possible a thunderstorm or two from Tucson north and eastward. Still some uncertainty with the track of the shortwave. Right now models bring it through northern Arizona, but a more southerly track could lead to better precip chances.
This system early next week will also bring cooler temperatures with high temps expected to be a few degrees below normal for a change Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter ensembles show brief zonal flow, which will allow temperatures to recover to around normal by mid-week. Later in the week there is potential for another trough to move through the region, but there are currently large differences between global ensembles. The Euro keeps the low well to the north in the Great Basin, while the GEFS brings it through northern Arizona. The GEFS solution would lead to another round of gusty winds and a slight chance of precip.
AVIATION Valid through 11/12Z
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k feet AGL for most of the period with FEW-SCT 10k-15k AGL this afternoon mainly west of hwy 191. Some cloud buildups will be possible along the AZ/NM border. Low confidence that any outflows from buildups will affect any terminals. Sfc winds light and terrain driven this morning becoming southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts after 11/18Z. Winds subside after 12/02Z, becoming light and terrain driven again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Afternoon winds west/southwest 10-15 mph today as a Pacific system approaches the region. Southwest winds increase further this weekend as the system crosses the region, becoming 15-25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph. With this system continuing to look drier, the combination of critical winds and relative humidity will result in the potential for fire weather concerns as early as Saturday, but especially on Sunday. RH values will likely be a bit too high on Saturday. As a result a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday. As the first part of this weather system moves through, any precipitation this weekend looks limited in scope (10 to 20 percent chance today and Saturday mainly for Graham and Greenlee Counties). While winds remain gusty early next work week, cooler temperatures and increased moisture Monday should help mitigate widespread fire weather concerns, though it could still linger along the NM border Monday. Thereafter, winds generally 15 mph or less through the middle of next week.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ150>152.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 222 AM MST Fri Apr 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
High temperatures will be 4-8 degrees above normal the next couple of days with a slight chance for mostly dry thunderstorms along the AZ/NM border. A series of upper level lows will move through this weekend into next week bringing breezy winds each afternoon through Monday. These systems will also usher in cooler air leading to high temperatures 4-6 degrees below normal early next week and bring a slight chance for precip north and east of Tucson Monday.
DISCUSSION
The upper air pattern will be fairly progressive over the next few days with multiple shortwaves passing through the region. These systems will be mostly dry with the main impact being breezy westerly winds and cooler temperatures.
However today and Saturday there will be a slight chance for buildups along the AZ/NM border and higher terrain of Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties. PoPs were increased slightly from baseline NBM in these areas both days to show the threat of isolated thunderstorms. The HRRR both days doesn't show much in the way of precip, but does show a threat for gusty outflow winds Friday and Saturday afternoons from highway 191 eastward.
Any outflows that do develop will have the potential to kick up dust, which could lead to reduced visibility along I-10 east of Wilcox.
As the shortwaves pass through southwest winds will be elevated with sustained speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-40 mph each afternoon through Monday. Right now the strongest winds will likely occur Sunday and Monday. Relative humidities will likely be below 15 percent for most of southeast Arizona Sunday, which along with high fire danger and the strong winds, will lead to possible critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Sunday afternoon and early evening from central Pima County eastward. Monday the winds will likely be around Red Flag criteria, but RH values are expected to increase as a little surface moisture moves in ahead of another trough. This will lead to a slight chance for showers and possible a thunderstorm or two from Tucson north and eastward. Still some uncertainty with the track of the shortwave. Right now models bring it through northern Arizona, but a more southerly track could lead to better precip chances.
This system early next week will also bring cooler temperatures with high temps expected to be a few degrees below normal for a change Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter ensembles show brief zonal flow, which will allow temperatures to recover to around normal by mid-week. Later in the week there is potential for another trough to move through the region, but there are currently large differences between global ensembles. The Euro keeps the low well to the north in the Great Basin, while the GEFS brings it through northern Arizona. The GEFS solution would lead to another round of gusty winds and a slight chance of precip.
AVIATION Valid through 11/12Z
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k feet AGL for most of the period with FEW-SCT 10k-15k AGL this afternoon mainly west of hwy 191. Some cloud buildups will be possible along the AZ/NM border. Low confidence that any outflows from buildups will affect any terminals. Sfc winds light and terrain driven this morning becoming southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts after 11/18Z. Winds subside after 12/02Z, becoming light and terrain driven again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Afternoon winds west/southwest 10-15 mph today as a Pacific system approaches the region. Southwest winds increase further this weekend as the system crosses the region, becoming 15-25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph. With this system continuing to look drier, the combination of critical winds and relative humidity will result in the potential for fire weather concerns as early as Saturday, but especially on Sunday. RH values will likely be a bit too high on Saturday. As a result a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday. As the first part of this weather system moves through, any precipitation this weekend looks limited in scope (10 to 20 percent chance today and Saturday mainly for Graham and Greenlee Counties). While winds remain gusty early next work week, cooler temperatures and increased moisture Monday should help mitigate widespread fire weather concerns, though it could still linger along the NM border Monday. Thereafter, winds generally 15 mph or less through the middle of next week.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ150>152.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KNYL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNYL
Wind History Graph: NYL
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southwest
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