Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ali Chuk, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 4:41PM Monday November 18, 2019 8:49 PM PST (04:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:24PMMoonset 12:36PM Illumination 55% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ali Chuk, AZ
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location: 31.3, -113.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 182311
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
411 pm mst Mon nov 18 2019

Synopsis A pacific storm system will bring a good chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

A stronger and colder system will then bring a chance of valley
rain and mountain snow Wednesday night through Friday morning.

Temperatures will cool to below average by the end of the week,
dropping 25 degrees by Thursday.

Discussion Important changes for this forecast cycle was the
issuance of a flash flood watch beginning Tuesday 18z and
persisting through at least 06z Thursday. It may need extended,
but that will be revisited during later shifts.

Convection will begin to overspread southern az near the
international border around 16z to 18z Tuesday per latest
rap hrrr href guidance and overspread the rest of az through the
afternoon. Given the thermodynamic profile and environment, some
strong or even an isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible.

Best chance for strong storms will be from 18z Tuesday to 03z
Wednesday. Main threat will be gusty winds and small hail. Shear
and instability may be just enough to see a couple low top
supercells, but the threat should be confined to the international
border and as far north as sells, tucson, and willcox. Further
north, instability is less. Instability and thunderstorm coverage
will quickly wane into the evening.

As we move into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect
continued rounds of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms.

Some of the rain will be locally heavy with the threat for flash
flooding. Best chance for flash flooding will be from nogales
north across the eastern metro and into central az. Lesser threats
exists outside of those areas, but opted to issue the flash flood
watch for the entire cwa.

As the first system moves away, the second stronger storm system
will begin to move into socal and northern az. This will slide a
frontal band across the CWA from west to east on Wednesday. This
will bring another round of locally heavy rain. Depending on where
we see the heaviest rain and how much, will determine areas of
greater threat. Regardless, expecting area washes and rivers to
flow. Typical low lying areas will see minor flooding, but not
expecting anything major at this time.

As this frontal band continues slides across southern az through
the day and evening on Wednesday, snow levels will gradually drop.

This is when accumulating snowfall will start for the higher
peaks. Snow levels will start above mountain tops and drop to
7500ft. Snow levels may drop to around 6500ft with light
accumulations, but the significant accumulations will generally be
above 7500ft with the highest across the peaks.

By Thursday, there is some model uncertainty on how quickly the
precip exists southern az. The euro wants to hang up the frontal
band across southeastern az, while the GFS blows it through.

Decided to hedge in middle. Regardless, this will keep valley
rain showers and mountain snow showers continuing through most if
not all of Thursday. Generally improving weather can be expected
for Friday and especially the weekend. At this time, still
expecting a dry weekend with a warming trend.

There is the potential for unsettled weather early next week, but
model confidence is too low at this time.

Aviation Valid through 20 00z.

Bands few-sct decks above 20k ft msl area wide this afternoon moving
south to north. Bkn-ovc will start building overnight into early
morning Tuesday. -shra expected along the international border
starting around 19 16z and migrating north becoming widespread over
az for the rest of the day. Slight chance chance of tsra as well.

Brief MVFR for CIGS vsby possible in shra tsra. Sfc winds will
remain light and variable until 19 16z, then sfc wind sly 8-12 kts
gusting up to 18kts area wide. Aviation discussion not updated for
taf amendments.

Fire weather Dry weather through this evening. Widespread showers
expected to cross the international border Tuesday morning and move
north over most of az and will persist until Friday. Slight chance
chance of thunderstorms as well. For the higher elevations,
precipitation will begin as rain but transition to snow Wednesday
evening as snow levels drop. With the expectation that lingering
valley rain and mountains snow showers will continue Friday,
significant snowfall accumulations are possible above 7500 feet by
the the time the storm exits. Conditions improve Saturday and Sunday
with dry weather returning.

South to southwest 20-ft winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts are
expected Wednesday and Thursday, however rh values will remain above
35 percent. Otherwise, 20-ft winds will be terrain-driven at less
than 15 mph. Above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday,
then drop to below normal levels Wednesday into the weekend.

Twc watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening
for azz501>515.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ114 mi1.9 hrsN 08.00 miFair71°F34°F26%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYL

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N4N5NE8NE8N5CalmCalmNE4CalmNE4NE9NE11NE16NE14NE12NE8N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4N4CalmNE3N3N3CalmN5NE6N4NE13NE11NE9NE6NE10NE9NE6NE63N8N7N4N4N6
2 days agoCalmNE4CalmNE3NE5N5NE3N4NE3NE4N6N6N5NE5E6NE7N7N5N5N7N4N6N6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico
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Puerto Penasco
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:51 AM MST     3.50 meters High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM MST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM MST     1.68 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 12:35 PM MST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:33 PM MST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:39 PM MST     2.35 meters High Tide
Mon -- 11:24 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.31.92.53.13.43.53.332.52.11.81.71.71.822.22.32.32.221.71.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico (3)
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Puerto Penasco
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:44 AM MST     3.65 meters High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM MST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM MST     1.63 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM MST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:31 PM MST     2.54 meters High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM MST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:24 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.322.73.23.63.63.53.12.62.11.81.61.71.92.12.42.52.52.421.71.31

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.