Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Level, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 210612 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 112 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Now through Wednesday night...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will enter the area from the northwest late this evening into the overnight hours. Storms will weaken as they move into the area due to unfavorable jet dynamics aloft leading to weak forcing. An isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, however widespread severe storms are not expected.
A Marginal Risk for severe storms does just clip our far northern counties to account for this small potential. The front will reach the coast by Wednesday morning with drier air moving into the region from the north. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s inland to mid/upper 70s along the coast. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the low 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. A high risk of rip currents will continue through Wednesday morning. /13

Thursday through Tuesday...

Upper level shortwave energy swinging around a closed low over the Great Lakes region digs a mean upper trough over the Eastern Conus into the weekend. In combination with shortwave energy digging south over the western Conus, an upper ridge builds over the Plains. Sunday heading into the coming week, the continued stream of shortwave energy moving over the Plains begins to shift east/flatten the ridge over most of the Conus. Countering the activity over the Southeast is upper level high pressure over the Gulf building north over the northern Gulf coast. A weak cold front moves from near the northern Gulf coast Thursday south to over the Gulf, bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to open Gulf waters Thursday before moving offshore and ushering in a drier airmass. Another weak front moves south over the Southeast late Friday into Friday night, re-enforcing the dry airmass over the Southeast. Late Saturday into the coming week, with the shifting of the upper pattern, a surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf coast, returning onshore flow to the northern Gulf coast. Moisture values increase first over the Southern Plains, then to the Southeast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to area west of the forecast area by late Sunday. A passing upper level shortwave trough Monday will bring an uptick in rain chances for Monday before easing back to seasonal norms for Tuesday.

Subsidence from the Plains and Gulf high pressure will keep temperatures around or above seasonal norms through most of the forecast. High temperatures range from the upper 80s to low 90s most days, with a downtick into the mid to upper 80s for Tuesday as another cold front begins to move south across the forecast area. The dry airmass the end of the week will help with overnight cooling, with low temperatures in the low 60s north of Highway 84 to around 70 along the coast. By Sunday night, low temperatures have crept upward to the low to mid 70s as increasing moisture levels combine with subsidence from the upper ridge. Low temperatures then drop into the low 60s north of Highway 84 to around 70 along the coast by Tuesday night as cooler air moves south across the forecast area. Heat Indices remain below 100 through the Extended, with the highest day being Sunday, with values ranging from 93-99 over most of the forecast area.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents remains through the weekend into the coming week. /16
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