Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seminary, MS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Through tonight: The scenario continues to unfold as expected with a capped warm sector that is heating up strongly well ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms including some supercells have developed from northern LA to eastern AR/nrn MS, and they are just outside of our forecast area. Given that the mixing layer depth has just about peaked now, it may take some time for a tornado threat to ramp up, so damaging wind gusts and large hail should be the primary threats. By early to mid this evening, as the storms become more organized, we will see the severe threats peak over north central to northeast MS, including for tornadoes with effective low level shear expected to maximize in that area and time frame. The lift associated with the front will be less as you go south, which makes storm coverage and the overall storm threat more conditional, especially south of the I-20 corridor late tonight. There has been little change to timing and hazards.
/EC/

Wednesday through Monday: Cyclonic northwest flow aloft around a large northeast CONUS trough will bring drier and slightly cooler conditions to the forecast area making for more comfortable conditions through late week. As is often the case this time of year, less humidity is a very temporary condition, and the heat and humidity will begin to build back in this weekend along with rain chances. It looks like stormy conditions will peak late Sunday and perhaps intol Monday ahead of a seasonably strong cold front pushing south into the area. /EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Only area of brief SHRA & TSRA will be over the next hour at MEI.
VFR conditions will prevail at majority of TAF sites, with temporary MVFR stratus/ceiling reductions possible at HBG & PIB through around 21/11Z Wednesday. Winds will continue to shift more northerly in the wake of the cold front moving through from northwest to southeast overnight. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 86 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 86 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 86 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 87 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 85 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 85 62 86 60 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.