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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 554 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth.
Friday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming east around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 554 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
surface high pressure will continue to build over local waters today. The high will build northeast of the local waters on Friday followed by a warm front which will lift northward over the water on Saturday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly winds increase Sunday to near small craft advisory levels with the approach of a pre-frontal squall line of Thunderstorms. The cold front will move across the local waters late Sunday as high pressure builds across the gulf coast region early next week.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 05, 2023 at 1200 utc...
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 071059 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 559 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Early morning frost over inland areas will clear by midmorning today.
High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern today with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and mild winds extending through tonight and into Friday morning. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 60s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 30s and lower 40s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 40s for northeast Florida.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure ridge aloft over eastern GA and the Carolinas will move quickly east on Friday as a long wave trough digs into the central CONUS. Sfc high over just north of the area will also move easterly setting up return flow just above the sfc. A weak coastal trough is noted in most of the guidance, with a couple of showers possible offshore as the trough remains nearly stationary or drifts northwest late in the day. Cloudiness should increase as a disturbance aloft moves in from the southwest.

Fri night, shortwave wave disturbances move over the region with some suggestion from guidance a trough or warm front lifting up into the area overnight. Will introduce some low rain chance in the forecast based on consensus and latest MOS but expect any rain amounts will be very light.

Saturday, partly to occasional mostly cloudy skies and weak east flow possible as weak trough lifts up and north of the area.
Anticipate some low rain chances at 10-20 percent, and/or few sprinkles possible but the shortwave trough will have lifted northeast of the area. Saturday night, return low level flow from the southeast and south will increase as a cold front enters the southeast CONUS. As such, rain chances will slowly increase overnight with cloudiness increasing again.

Temps will moderate and warm this period as the return flow eventually sets up. By Saturday, highs well into the 70s expected with near 80 far south zones. Some patchy fog possible inland areas late Friday night and was placed in forecast grids.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The models are in much better agreement with the cold front still just west of the area 12z Sunday, and move it in between 18z and 00z. Breezy southerly winds of 15-20G30 mph expected during the day. Due to better agreement and confidence, rain chances continue to be ramped up to categorical west and northwest zones, and make still be quite elevated Sunday night (and may need further upward adjustment) before the front is offshore our coast by around 06z Monday, with good agreement in the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF. The instability looks rather weak still with CAPE values barely to 300- 500 J/kg, but bulk shear of 40-50 kt still. Isolated strong/severe storms possible but probabilities appear very low/low at this time.
Not seeing any in prior analogs suggesting isolated severe storms.
Clearing skies late Sunday night into Monday morning with winds increasing from the northwest to about 15-20 mph. High pressure builds in from the west and northwest Monday and Tuesday and remains well to our north Wednesday, with sfc ridging from lower MS Valley to the NC Outer Banks. Strong onshore winds at the coast develop Tue- Wed as ridging stays well to the north and low pressure exists toward the southeast GOMEX and Bahamas. A slight chance of showers possible Wednesday over southeast zones given moistened low level flow. As far as temps, warm on Sunday ahead of the front and much cooler Mon-Wed. A frost or light freeze possible inland southeast GA Tuesday morning.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions through the forecast period with mild NW winds becoming more variable and mild as the day progresses with calm winds anticipated overnight and into early Friday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Surface high pressure will continue to build over local waters today.
The high will build northeast of the local waters on Friday followed by a warm front which will lift northward over the water on Saturday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly winds increase Sunday to near Small Craft Advisory levels with the approach of a pre-frontal line of convection. The cold front will move across the local waters late Sunday night as high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast region early next week.

Rip Current Risk: Moderate Risk for NE FL beaches today and Friday. Low Risk for SE GA beaches today and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Main issue today is low daytime dispersion over a good part of the area due to weak transport winds. Lowest humidities today are over inland southeast GA in the mid 30 percent range.

Higher humidities on Fri and Sat as low level flow turns onshore and then south ahead of the approaching cold front. Dispersions trend higher on Fri and Sat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 41 68 54 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 62 49 66 58 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 63 46 69 56 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 65 51 71 59 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 66 46 73 57 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 67 48 73 58 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ020-021-023- 024-030-031-035-122-136-222-225-232-236-237-240-340-425.

GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.

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Burnt Fort
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:35 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:01 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:04 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Burnt Fort, Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

Below Spring Bluff
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:07 AM EST     6.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     1.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     6.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Below Spring Bluff, Little Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

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