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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 329 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 329 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow will generally be decreasing over the next several days as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.

FXUS64 KMOB 280957 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 357 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A dry flow pattern will continue through Wednesday as surface high pressure drifts across the area. Skies will clear later this morning with highs in the mid/upper 50s inland to near 60 along the coast. The upper level ridge axis will be over the area tonight and with clear skies and very light winds, radiational cooling will be maximized. Most areas along and north of I-10 will drop below freezing overnight with upper 20s expected across the northern half of the area. A freeze warning has been issued for all areas north of the immediate coast. Highs on Wednesday will be very similar to today with upper 50s in most areas. /13

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface high pressure will quickly shift east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly upper level flow develops over the area. Low temperatures are tricky Wednesday night as they typically are with a departing surface high. Surface winds are apt to decouple, at least in the northeast zones, Wednesday evening due to the linger surface ridge. This should allow temps to quickly drop in the evening. The only caveat to this is there will be increasing high level cloud cover moving in from the west. The forecast will reflect the likelihood of another freeze over the northeastern zones (primarily south central AL)
with upper 30s to lower 40s across the southern and western zones.

The first in a series of shortwaves will eject northeast out of Texas on Thursday and move into the Midsouth region by early Friday morning. An attendant surface low will move across a similar track during this time frame. As this low develops, a warm front moves across our area from the southwest late Thursday night into Friday morning. Deep layer moisture will quickly surge north into region with precipitable waters rising to 1.75" by sunrise Friday. Upper level jet dynamics combined with the increasing moisture and low level convergence will result in rain moving in from the west late Thursday night and impacting much of the area by early Friday morning. There is also the potential for a few rumbles of thunder by Friday morning as the area becomes entrenched in the warm sector with weak instability.

This first system will quickly lift out to the northeast by Friday afternoon and it's associated frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of the area under the deep southwest flow aloft. We are likely to see a break in rain Friday afternoon into Friday evening. However, the next round of significant precipitation will likely develop late Friday night into Saturday morning in response to a large 250-300mb jet strengthening from central TX into the Midwest. Broad upper level divergence will combine with aforementioned high PWATs and low level convergence along the stalled frontal zone to produce numerous to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.

Uncertainty builds past Saturday morning as there are disagreements in the timing and strength of subsequent shortwaves moving through the deep layer southwest flow. There will likely be some breaks in the rain, but the timing of those is uncertain and for now we will maintain likely rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday. It is certainly possible that another round of locally heavy rainfall will occur. It should be noted that the 00z guidance is more progressive on moving the frontal zone and associated rainfall east of the area by Monday. This is a change from earlier guidance. We will maintain rain chances through Monday for now, but these may need to be lowered if the quicker timing trends hold.

Widespread rain totals of 1-3" are currently expected and there could certainly be areas that receive over 4". However, the latest ensemble probabilities for totals greater than 4" have decreased over the past 24 hours due to the aforementioned more progressive trend. Given this, we are overall looking at beneficial rainfall, but still cannot rule out localized flooding issues.

The severe potential for now continues to look on the low side given overall weak instability, saturated deep layer profiles and resultant poor lapse rates). 34/JFB

MARINE
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow will decrease this morning as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west. /13

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-261>264.

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675.

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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:05 PM CST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:50 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:29 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:00 AM CST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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