Monday, October26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hallsburg, TX

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:46PM Sunday October 25, 2020 11:38 PM CDT (04:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hallsburg, TX
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location: 31.56, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 260116 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 816 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Tonight Through Monday Evening/

A moist, cool, and drizzly evening is in store for all but the far west/southwest counties. The majority of the area was seeing east or northeast winds around 10 mph with temperatures holding steady from the 50s along and north of I-20, to the 60s and even lower 70s across western Central Texas. The long-advertised, shallow arctic cold front was already seen via regional radar and surface obs, bleeding slowly eastward into areas west of US-281. Stronger large scale isentropic ascent with 25-30 knot, steep upglide flow aiding in deep lift is forecast to rapidly increase toward midnight and continue during the overnight hours. This will enhance widespread rainfall across North Texas overnight with lower chances further south across Central Texas. Mid level lapse rates aloft will be steepening as well to between 7-8 deg C/km so expect some embedded and elevated periods of thunder over the top of the low level cooling airmass. Widespread basin-average rainfall amounts will be between one quarter and one half of an inch by morning northwest of a Bonham, to DFW, to Stephenville and Comanche line. Spotty lighter rainfall amounts will occur further south and east as the better ascent is slow to shift east. Such deep, closed mid level lows across the southern latitudes are awaiting strong jet stream level winds to move downstream of their base to pick up forward momentum. This won't happen until likely more on Tuesday, so this will be a very slow moving, long-duration system. It may not rain continuously, but expect off and on periods of rain with patchy light fog through the day Monday.

As the arctic cold front oozes slowly east-southeast into areas west of I-35 overnight, temperatures will fall quickly into and through the 40s as winds shift to the north at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to around 30 mph at times. The coldest air will still remain entrenched further west across Northwest Texas into the Permian Basin and western Big Country. This will keep sub- freezing temperatures well west of North and Central Texas . for the time being. The arctic cold front will slowly transition west to east from near I-35 just after daybreak Monday into our East Texas counties by late in the day. Wet, blustery, and occasionally thundery weather will persist across the northwest half of the area through the day Monday with a later arrival across Central and East Texas. No severe weather is anticipated, but it will be a sloppy mess for both the morning and evening rush hours. The leading edge of the arctic air will finally have intruded into all of North and Central Texas by Monday evening as the front slides slowly into East and South Central Texas. Surface temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s across our northwest counties and into the 40s from our northeast counties to the I-35 corridor and western Central Texas. Wind chill values will fall into the 30s to lower 40s across this area after nightfall. Meanwhile, our East Texas counties will be slower to see the really chilly air arrive with temperatures falling from around 60 degrees and through the 50s as the evening wears on. Prepare now for the wet, windy, and chilly conditions Monday into Monday night if you plan on traveling or being outdoors for any period of time.

05/

LONG TERM. /Issued 242 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/ /Monday night onward/

The first major Arctic outbreak of the season is underway across the Rocky Mountains and Northern and Central Plains. Surface analysis from earlier today revealed a 1044 mb high centered over southern British Columbia, with freezing temperatures at the surface stretching as far south as Dodge City, KS. Some rather cold temperatures were observed this morning, with much of eastern Colorado in the teens, Montana and Wyoming in the single digits, and some sub-zero temperatures observed across Alberta. The surface front was somewhat ill-defined this morning, but a modest temperature gradient does appear to exist from the Red River to the Central Plains.

The cold front passage will occur during the next 12-24 hours (see short-term above), but rather than a more "classic" Arctic front passage with a sudden and sharp wind shift and drop in temperatures, this frontal passage will see a gradual cooling of the temperatures through the day Monday. By Monday night, western portions of the CWA are expected to be near the freezing mark. Meanwhile, 500 mb height falls will overspread the region as a deep upper-level trough deepens over the western half of the North American continent. Forecast soundings for locations such as Graham and Abilene show a deep warm layer aloft from about 3,000 to 12,000 ft AGL, with a warm nose of about 12 C near 5,000 ft AGL. This warm nose is associated with the frontal inversion near the 800 mb frontal surface. In the lowest 3,000 ft, temperatures will be below freezing as the shallow Arctic air mass bolstered by an early-season snowpack over the Northern and Central Plains overspreads the region. This thermodynamic profile will be supportive of freezing rain. QPF and ice accumulation guidance from WPC indicate the potential for around one tenth of an inch of ice generally near and west of a line from Bowie to Mineral Wells to Eastland.

There is some uncertainty to how much ice accumulation will be possible as temperatures will be only a couple degrees or so below freezing. In addition, this will be the first freeze of the season for any areas that do freeze, meaning ground/surface temperatures are still quite warm. The foregoing notwithstanding, there are a few aggravating factors. The first is that this is unusually early for freezing temperatures, let alone wintry precipitation. Secondly, trees across North Texas still retain their leaves from the growing season. This will mean that more leaves will be available to collect ice, weighing down tree branches, potentially leading to their damage and collapse. For these reasons, we have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for a few of our western counties where we believe the freezing rain threat will be the greatest. This Winter Weather Advisory includes a mention of the freezing temperatures, which is another factor for which residents in the western counties will need to prepare. Out of the desire to not confuse users with multiple products, we have opted to forgo the issuance of a separate Freeze Watch/Warning, and will let the Winter Weather Advisory "imply" the freezing temperature threat (the temperatures have to be below freezing for freezing rain to occur after all). This Winter Weather Advisory will run from 7 p.m. Monday through 1 p.m. Tuesday, which should capture the period in which below freezing temperatures are anticipated. Some refinements in the spatial and temporal coverage of this advisory may be necessary.

For the rest of the CWA, temperatures should remain above freezing, keeping everyone else in a cold rain. Rainfall accumulations look to range from one-half inch across Central Texas to around one inch along the Interstate 20 corridor to more than two inches along the Red River. Despite the total rainfall amounts, relatively meager hourly rainfall rates and dry antecedent conditions should mitigate the flood threat. Rain should come to an end by Thursday morning. The rest of the week looks to be dry, with continued below normal temperatures. Halloween weekend should feel quite fall-like (and less winter- like!) with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Godwin

AVIATION. /NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Challenges and Concerns: Low IFR/LIFR cigs and increasing RA/isolated TS affecting D10 terminals overnight and on Monday. Cold FROPA and timing shifting of E/NE winds to N post-FROPA.

Poor flying conditions can be expected through Monday evening. Though cigs have briefly improved to IFR across the DFW Metro airports with low MVFR hanging on at Waco Regional Airport, look for both periods of drizzle and light fog, along with increasing RA/isolated TS overnight and Monday to result in cigs occasionally dropping into LIFR. I can't completely rule out VLIFR conditions at times, but confidence is too low in this set up to pinpoint when those sort of deteriorating conditions will evolve. I have also elected to not introduce VCTS or any -TSRA this far out in time either, as much of the TS will be isolated and elevated in nature. It will be something for overnight and Monday morning TAFs to assess closer for any addition to the forecast.

Northeast winds 8-11 knots will continue across DFW, while east winds at Waco Regional continue much of the night. FROPA associated with a shallow arctic cold front appears likely across DFW terminals between 12z-14z Monday, with a passage at Waco Regional Airport more around 18z Monday. N or NNE winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to between 25 to 30 knots are expected post FROPA as strong low level CAA combines with a tight pressure gradient to drive the strong winds.

05/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 57 41 45 45 / 70 90 90 50 50 Waco 61 71 44 48 47 / 30 80 70 40 50 Paris 53 56 45 52 50 / 50 80 90 40 40 Denton 48 53 38 43 41 / 80 90 90 50 50 McKinney 53 57 40 46 45 / 70 90 90 50 40 Dallas 56 59 42 47 47 / 60 90 90 50 50 Terrell 56 63 44 50 48 / 40 80 80 40 40 Corsicana 63 69 46 52 51 / 40 80 70 40 40 Temple 64 72 44 48 45 / 20 60 60 40 40 Mineral Wells 47 52 36 40 38 / 70 90 80 60 60

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ100-101-115-116-129.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX12 mi48 minNE 73.00 miFog/Mist63°F61°F93%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACT

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4CalmE4CalmSE5SE3SE4E4SE5SE7S10SE8SE9SE8SE7E6E8E7E7NE8NE8NE10NE7
1 day agoN11
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N13N10NW10N8N9N7N7N8N9N13N8N6N5NW6CalmNE53SE4E4SE4SE3SE3E5
2 days agoS13S13S12S8S5S3E4SE8SE5E4N28
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.