Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellmead, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

Clear skies and light winds prevail this morning as our slow moving upper low to the east will finally start to pull away later today. This will allow temperatures to steadily climb through mid week. Highs today will be near normal in the low/mid 80s, but an abrupt warmup toward record breaking temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday where highs will climb into the mid 90s and low 100s.

Dunn

Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Tuesday/

The slow moving upper low that has been hanging around the Arklatex for the last several days will finally get a nudge eastward today and signal a change that will bring record breaking heat to the area by mid week. The rest of tonight will be mostly clear with light north winds and temperatures dropping into the upper 50s by morning.

With the upper low exiting the region, mid level ridging will begin to nose into west Texas late this afternoon. Our light northerly winds will gradually become southeasterly by this evening. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will climb into the low/mid 80s this afternoon. As we get into Tuesday though, low and mid level flow will become more westerly allowing a thermal ridge to expand eastward. Strong low level warm advection and an eastward moving dryline will allow temperatures to soar into the mid and upper 90s by Tuesday afternoon. Cloud free skies will offer little relief to the early season heat and it'll be even warmer as we get into Wednesday with many areas expected to be at or above 100 degrees.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 317 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ /Tuesday Night Onward/

A streak of above normal temperatures will be well underway as a mid/upper ridge becomes planted over Texas and the Southern Plains during the midweek period. Temperatures should remain mostly in the 70s Tuesday night before climbing into the 90s and triple digits on Wednesday. In addition to the high pressure aloft, a weak disturbance rounding the top of the ridge will aid in the eastward surge of the dryline Wednesday afternoon. Sunny skies, downslope flow and dry air should push temperatures to record values at both DFW and Waco, where forecast highs are around 100 while record highs are 95 and 96 respectively.

The ridge will shift east Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper low over the Rockies lifts northeast through the Central Plains. This pattern shift will force a weak cold front about halfway into North Texas on Thursday, while shoving the dryline east again ahead of the front. Southwest winds and more downslope flow will push temperatures well into the 90s south of the front, while mid and upper 80s are still expected on the north side of the boundary. Despite the presence of the front and dryline, a deep elevated mixed layer around 700mb will likely preclude thunderstorm development.

A similar set-up will be in place on Friday, though the front will have lifted north to near the Red River. In addition, a trailing shortwave moving east across Texas may provide the added lift necessary in eroding the cap. Isolated thunderstorms will be the likely result Friday afternoon and evening, with development being along and east of the dryline and along/south of the surface front. The latest guidance pushes the dryline to near the I-35 corridor Friday afternoon, which is where convective initiation would likely occur. Storm coverage may be low, but any storm which forms will have a good chance of becoming severe based on the highly sheared and unstable environment in place. Storms would spread east of I-35 in the evening, eventually dissipating Friday night.

The dryline will again be the focus for convective development Saturday afternoon and evening as a second disturbance passes overhead, with any storm which develops potentially becoming severe. A lull in thunderstorm development may then occur Sunday and next Monday, followed by more widespread showers and storms next Monday night or the following Tuesday as a larger scale trough and cold front sweep through the Southern Plains.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with light north winds this morning becoming southeasterly later this evening. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Tuesday.

Dunn

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 94 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 83 61 98 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 79 59 86 67 94 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 82 59 93 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 81 60 90 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 83 64 95 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 81 61 91 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 83 64 93 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 86 61 99 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 85 59 98 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.