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FXUS64 KFWD 072123 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 323 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1215 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023/ /Through Friday/

Developing surface low pressure shifting into the Southern Plains will lead to strengthened southerly gradient winds and above- average temperatures through Friday ahead of an approaching cold front expected to push into North Texas just beyond the short-term period. Expect widespread southerly surface winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph at times through this afternoon with high temperatures peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the region. A few locations could see brief 35+ mph wind gusts through the afternoon, especially along/west of I-35, but coverage of 25+ mph sustained winds and 35+ mph wind gusts looks to remain too limited for a Wind Advisory issuance through the remainder of this afternoon.

Low-level moisture will continue surging into North and Central Texas through this evening into the overnight with support from a 30-40 kt low-level jet. A stratus deck will overspread much of the region late tonight through at least midday Friday before a dryline shifts toward the I-35 corridor, pushing extensive low- level cloud cover primarily across East Texas by mid-afternoon Friday. Strong warm-advection ahead of the weekend frontal system will bring afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (15 to 20 degrees above-average) across much of the region Friday afternoon, minus our far eastern zones where cloud cover will likely keep temperatures in the low 70s. Above-average temperatures, gusty south-southwest winds, and minimum RH below 25% behind the dryline will lead to at least elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon along/west of Highway 281. We can't rule out a few light showers across our far eastern zones during the day Friday where deeper low-level moisture will reside (PWATs ~1.0-1.2"). However, a strong capping inversion rooted near 825mb and dry mid-level air will likely keep activity minimal until later Friday night into Saturday east of the Metroplex.

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/

A cold front will push through North Texas Friday night and through Central and East Texas Saturday, dropping temperatures to more seasonable values and bringing a chance of rain to eastern portions of the region. The front and attendant upper trough will not encounter any appreciable moisture until the associated forcing for ascent reaches East Texas, keeping the majority of the region rain-free. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be limited to areas east of I-45 / Hwy 75, where a few strong storms may occur during the day Saturday. An isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out before activity exits to our east, particularly late morning and early afternoon as the main trough axis swings through and the atmosphere destabilizes near the departing front. The better strong/severe weather set-up will be farther east across the over Mississippi Valley.

A cold Saturday night can be expected as clouds vacate and post- frontal north winds begin to abate. Temperatures should fall to or below freezing across the northwest quadrant of the CWA with the rest of the region bottoming in the mid and upper 30s. A cool Sunday will then follow as the surface ridge eases in from the northwest, with afternoon highs being 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Return flow will begin Sunday night as the ridge shifts to our east, which will start a slow warming trend for the first part of the workweek. Temperatures will return to near-normal values for both Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface ridge will stall over the southeast states before retrograding to the Ohio valley, causing surface winds to back from the south-southwest to the southeast during the midweek period. The resulting low level flow will bring and uptick in Gulf moisture as the next upper low deepens over the southern Rockies. The low will slow or possibly stall, limiting any rain chances in the extended forecast to the western half of the region for mid to late next week.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 1215 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023/ /18Z TAFs/

FEW to SCT 020-040 cigs will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon. More widespread MVFR cigs with a low chance for IFR cigs will overspread much of North and Central Texas later tonight (generally after ~08Z) before clearing west-east midday Friday.

Southerly winds at 15-20 kts will gust to 25-30 kts at times through this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy through the overnight with south-southwest gusts up to 25 kts returning late Friday morning.

Langfeld


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 76 50 63 35 / 0 5 0 5 5 Waco 60 76 57 67 37 / 0 5 0 10 5 Paris 54 70 52 64 34 / 5 10 30 20 10 Denton 55 76 43 60 30 / 0 5 0 5 5 McKinney 57 74 48 62 33 / 0 5 5 10 5 Dallas 59 76 50 64 37 / 0 5 5 5 5 Terrell 56 73 55 64 35 / 0 10 10 10 5 Corsicana 60 75 60 68 38 / 5 5 5 20 10 Temple 58 76 56 69 36 / 0 5 0 10 5 Mineral Wells 55 82 43 62 31 / 0 5 0 5 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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