Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waco, TX

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1244 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/ /Through Tuesday Night/

Additional thunderstorms have developed along the remnants of the dryline with a zone of convergence across western North Texas.
This area will be watched closely over the next several hours as convection currently along the Red River and even in portions of the Metroplex moves east through the late overnight and early morning hours. Plenty of instability remains in place tonight, so we will need to watch for the potential for isolated severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any activity through about 2-3 AM before pushing to the east.

The upper level trough will lift to the northeast, with a cold front pushing into the region through Tuesday morning as it departs the region. This will bring an end to rain chances through Tuesday with temperatures in the 70s and 80s briefly returning to all of North Texas. A few locations across our southern Central Texas counties may still reach 90 though.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/

A relatively cooler and tranquil midweek period will continue on Wednesday as post-frontal dry air remains in place. However, with a gradual return to southerly winds and building heights aloft, temperatures will be able to rebound into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Conditions will still be fairly pleasant by late May standards though, with dewpoints in the 50s resulting in low humidity.

More substantial moisture return should ensue on Thursday as northwest flow aloft prevails and a surface warm frontal boundary lifts northward into Oklahoma. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is possible near this boundary, with chances mainly in North Texas in the afternoon and early evening with development aided by diurnal destabilization. Flow through the column will be fairly weak resulting in modest wind shear, and organized severe weather would be rather unlikely as a result. However, a couple of stronger cells capable of gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. A similar setup will exist both Friday and Saturday, although the warm front's farther northward advance may remove most activity from North Texas on these days. Warmer and more humid weather can be expected though as the 70F isodrosotherm makes its return to North Texas by Saturday. When combined with ambient temperatures in the low to mid 90s, a few heat index values reaching or exceeding 100F are possible in Central Texas heading into Memorial Day weekend.

Higher thunderstorm chances could accompany a noteworthy late spring cold front into the area over the holiday weekend, and this would be most likely Sunday into Monday. While finer details are still uncertain, this will have the potential to impact or wash out weekend holiday activities, so those with outdoor interests will want to remain aware of the forecast in the coming days.
Right now, PoPs are on the low side of 30-50% mostly due to timing uncertainty with the highest storm chances, but the overall odds of seeing showers and thunderstorms at some point over the holiday weekend are greater than that for most areas. While not the most favorable setup for severe weather due to weak low and mid-level flow, strong instability could still support isolated instances of severe weather on Sunday or Monday. The passage of this front may be sufficient to hold temperatures as much as 10 degrees below normal through the first half of next week with highs perhaps only reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s Monday and Tuesday.

-Stalley

AVIATION
/Issued 1244 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/ /06z TAFs/

Concerns...Quick VCTS/TSRA tonight, FROPA through the morning.

A severe thunderstorm quickly developed along a remnant dryline overnight to the west of the D10. This activity will continue to push east over the next hour or so. Additional development is possible through the northeast over the next several hours as well, which may prolong impacts to the Bonham cornerpost. A cold front will push through the region, making it through the D10 around 12z. There is a low to medium chance that MVFR ceilings are able to make it north toward DFW/DAL, but the timing of the front may keep this window quite brief at the very least.
Southerly flow will return toward the end of the period.

Reeves

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 63 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 5 20 Waco 85 59 88 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 20 Paris 79 58 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 Denton 81 57 88 62 87 / 0 0 0 5 20 McKinney 82 59 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 Dallas 83 63 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 20 Terrell 82 59 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 85 62 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 88 59 90 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 83 57 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 5 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.