Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sierra Vista, AZ

DISCUSSION
Nearly zonal flow over the Southeastern Arizona today based on the latest water vapor imagery. Temperatures will hover around near normal for next two days before another weather system drops by this weekend.

Ensemble models show this weekend to be breezy to windy condition with a two step sequence. Saturday, a short wave trough will be passing over the eastern portion of region (Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee Counties) to bring strong breezes in the afternoon to early evening. Right behind the short wave will be longer trough or a low pressure center that will be located to our north. This second feature will bring widespread breezy conditions areawide and windy conditions for the eastern counties on Sunday. This weather system will be dry and will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions this weekend. This will also raise dust concerns along the major thoroughfares of Southeast Arizona.

The weather system will slow for the exit by Monday and will likely to continue to bring those strong winds again, especially in the southeastern portion of the county warning area.

This system will delaying our anticipation for the approaching summer heat. Mondays temperatures will be 9-12 degrees below normal.
Most of the deserts, including Tucson, will be in the mid 80s to mid 70s. With any brief cool down, we will have a rapid warm up.
A ridge of high pressure will start to build and bringing Southeast Arizona into our heat season by the middle of next week and raising our HeatRisk. Even more to note when we are not fully acclimated this heat yet. Best to start preparing for the heat late next week and into the holiday weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 17/00Z.
SKC for most of the forecast period with high clouds at or around 20k ft AGL moving from the south and over the terminals south and east of KTUS after 16/18Z till the rest of the period. This afternoon SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 8-13 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
By 16/03Z, terrain driven winds less than 10 kts through the overnight period. After 16/18Z, SFC wind SWLY/WLY at 12-18 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Terminals east of KTUS will experience the stronger winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be near normal this Friday and Saturday. Typical afternoon breezes today and Friday for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy conditions persisting across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties where 20-foot wind speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph during the mid/late afternoon hours. Increasing southwest winds are expected over the upcoming weekend as another storm system moves to our north. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into Monday. Sunday looking to be the windiest of the period. Monday's winds will lower in speeds and focused on the eastern areas, Cochise County to the Gila River Valley. Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees below normal Sunday, lowering to 9-12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well above normal levels by the middle of next week.



TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.