Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue to shift eastward across the Four State Region with the frontal boundary already mostly south of the I-20 corridor. With one isolated hailstorm across Northeast Texas already this morning, isentropic upglide will be the predominant environmental initiator for remaining post-frontal showers and elevated thunderstorms. The shrinking time and space ahead of the frontal boundary will gradually displace the best chances of stronger thunderstorms from south of the I-30 corridor eventually to the I-20 corridor through the evening.

Rainfall totals of 0.5-1 inch will be likely by the end of the day today, while Day 1-7 QPF values of 0.5-1.5 inches meaning the bulk of the rain for this week is also expected to fall today. Short- range guidance also suggests a concentration of this rainfall along and south of I-20 as showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering behind the frontal boundary. Post-frontal cold air advection will return for one of the last few times this season on Sunday, bringing temperatures briefly below normal (maximums/minimums in the lower 70s/lower 40s) through the beginning of next week. By the middle of next week, temperature maximums will rebound into the lower 80s once again. Until then, temperatures will remain above normal (maximums/minimums in the upper 80s/mid-60s). Long-range guidance suggests ridging that breaks down enough on Thursday to promote more widespread (and higher) chances of showers and thunderstorms by the end of next week. Uncertainty remains elevated enough to mention the potential for severe thunderstorms in the convective environment by that timeframe.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

For the ArkLaTex MVFR cigs arriving for several sites west predawn and will set in for the day with some IFR possible in WX. S winds 10-15KT and gust 20-25KT ahead of a cold front approaching now KADM to KFSM. Convection has gusted out limiting strength with showers here toward KTYR/KTXK by 10Z all additional terminals early today. A lot of the VCTS/SHRA will be post frontal as our winds shift from SW to NW 12-16Z over our NW and 19Z for KLFK & 21Z at KMLU. Skies become VFR this eve and more likely overnight.
/24/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

For 18/18z TAF period...Generally MVFR conditions across the region, as low cigs and light rain accompany a frontal boundary.
Eventually the rain and low cigs will move out of the region, with a return of VFR conditions by the end of the period. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

While spotter activation is not expected today, any reports of stronger thunderstorms would be appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 74 48 78 / 50 0 0 0 MLU 49 74 46 80 / 60 0 0 0 DEQ 38 73 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 44 75 47 79 / 20 0 0 0 ELD 42 73 43 77 / 40 0 0 0 TYR 45 74 48 76 / 30 0 0 0 GGG 45 74 46 77 / 30 0 0 0 LFK 51 74 48 76 / 60 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.