Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Today will start an extended period of above normal temps across the region, as mid 60s to near 70 dewpoints have advected N into SE OK/Wrn AR along and S of a sfc trough that extends from a broad area of low pressure extended from Ern CO into NW OK.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough has dug S into the Great Basin this morning, with the Srn extent of the trough ejecting NE from the Four Corners Region into the Cntrl Plains this afternoon, thus shifting flat ridging aloft from the Srn Plains into the MS Valley. The presence of the sfc/attendant low level trough extending from SE OK and bisecting our region to the SE has resulted in quite the SWrly LLJ across the area, with the latest KSHV VAD depicting 60-70kt between 0.5-1.0km (2-3kft), with some mixing translating to some ~25kt wind gusts already across portions of NE TX. The latest hi-res guidance suggests that some locally higher wind gusts nearing 35kts may be possible with the onset of mixing by mid-morning, before the SWrly LLJ axis shifts NE out of the region by midday. Thus, wind speeds/gusts should diminish by midday and level off for the afternoon below Advisory criteria, and given the brevity of these gusts this morning, will hold off on a Wind Advisory for portions of NE TX/N LA/Srn AR and will continue to monitor/advise the day shift.

The primary story will be the increasing heat, with the hottest temps so far this year expected today as winds transition to SW with the departing sfc trough. Morning low stratus evident on the satellite imagery over portions of Lower Toledo Bend Country into Cntrl and NE LA is thin enough such that these cigs should quickly scatter out by mid-morning, with the elevated AC/cirrus cigs expected to diminish as well later this morning. Given that 08Z temps are in the lower to mid 70s areawide and will likely hold status quo through daybreak, the max temp forecast will get a head start to reach the lower to mid 90s areawide, as additional low level dry air above the bndry lyr mixes ENE in wake of the departing low level trough. While the triple digit heat will remain well to our W over portions of N and Cntrl TX near and W of the Ewd mixing dryline, near record heat is expected today especially over E TX, but have toned down max temps a couple degrees cooler than the previous forecast given the effects of the stronger winds and wet soils from recent rainfall. Heat indices should also remain shy of Advisory criteria, only nearing 100 degrees this afternoon.

While ridging aloft will amplify tonight over the MS Valley, elevated cigs will increase and thicken overnight across the area, with Srly winds maintaining mixing such that min temps should hold greater than 70 degrees over most areas. A weak cool front still remain progged to drop SE into Ern and Srn OK into N TX Thursday morning, becoming stationary just NW of the region from the Ozarks into SE OK/NCntrl TX. The low level moisture profile still remains progged to be quite shallow near and just ahead of this bndry, although some of the latest guidance suggests that enough moisture may be present and capping may weaken enough for isolated convection to develop in the afternoon near this front, aided by weak perturbations aloft in the SW flow. Ample shear and instability will exist near this front and should isolated convection develop, could be strong to severe, hence the Day 2 SPC Marginal Risk mainly along/NW of the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR.
This threat remains quite conditional though, but given some hint in the hi-res guidance that convection could develop, have inserted slight chance pop mention Thursday afternoon NW of I-30.
The increase in elevated cigs with persistent Srly low level winds should result in slightly cooler max temps Thursday afternoon, but still hot and humid (but below record territory) nonetheless.

15

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Should any isolated convection develop Thursday afternoon near or just SE of the stationary sfc bndry, this should diminish during the evening as the bndry lyr cools, with this bndry lifting back N and washing out early Friday morning. A second weak sfc front remains progged to shift SE into Ern and Srn OK Friday afternoon, before easing SE into NCntrl AR with the Wrn extent of the bndry stalling aloft the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX. Low level moisture should begin to deepen ahead of this next front Friday, with the persistent (and unsettled SW flow aloft) helping to focus the potential for isolated convection by afternoon NW of the I-30 corridor, while potentially more concentrated just N of the area over Wrn and Cntrl AR along the front. This convection may reinforce the bndry S into SW AR late Friday night, with diurnal heating contributing to adequate instability Saturday once additional weaknesses aloft traverse atop the front. Thus, scattered convection should develop along and N of I-20 Saturday afternoon/night, before ridging aloft begins to build back N ahead of the next deep trough that will dig into the Desert SW late this weekend. Although not currently outlooked in the Day 4 outlook from SPC, would not be surprised to see some severe potential develop especially given the available shear and extent of instability expected. Srly low level winds should again result in the weak sfc bndry/front to wash out by Sunday afternoon, with convection becoming focusing farther N into SE/Ern OK and Wrn/Cntrl AR atop the building ridge.

SW flow will continue though across the Srn Plains W of the amplifying ridge to start the new work week, thus deflecting the primary storm track to our W and NW. But this may be temporary though pending how strong and far SE the attendant trough axis is able to suppress the ridging in place, with the potential for clusters of convection to shift E into the region Tuesday. The chance for severe can not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon/night as well, before slightly cooler and drier conditions return in wake of this next trough passage by the end of the extended period (midweek).

15

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR through daybreak with some MVFR cigs possible on the gusty SW wind with heating. On the SFC S/SW winds will be 10-20G24-30KT strongest in E TX. Any low cigs become VFR around midday with more of the same in store for us to end this work week with a gusty low level SW jet and some more LLWS overnight. Repeat to start for Friday, but with chance at late day convection. And more of that to come and go over the weekend ahead of weak fropa touch & go. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 73 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 92 71 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 94 69 87 70 / 0 10 20 10 TXK 96 73 92 75 / 0 0 10 10 ELD 93 69 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 95 73 92 76 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 94 72 92 75 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 95 72 94 75 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.