Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday July 5, 2020 2:08 PM PDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 051737 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1037 AM MST Sun Jul 5 2020

UPDATE. 18Z aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain rather strong over the region today into the weekend, with desert highs over the hotter deserts close to the 110 degree mark each day. Today and Monday will see highs in the lower 110s followed by subtle cooling during the middle of the week. High pressure aloft will build over the area later in the week, allowing the hotter deserts to climb well above the 110 degree mark. Drier conditions due to a lack of moisture surges with weak southwest flow aloft will prevent thunderstorms from developing through late in the week.

DISCUSSION. Early this morning, strong high pressure aloft had settled into the desert southwest; the latest plots showed that 500mb heights had climbed to around 592dm across the central deserts and flow aloft had become dry southwest to west. Surface dewpoints across the central deserts at 2 am were mostly in the 40s and down 2 to 9 degrees over the past 24 hours. IR imagery showed clear skies across the area. With the strong high centered well to the south/southeast of Phoenix, dry and subsident westerly flow aloft will continue for sunny skies along with high temps several degrees above seasonal normals. While 500mb heights are elevated at around 592dm, climatologically speaking they are not overly high and typically below the 90th climatological percentile as indicated by NAEFS percentiles data. 850mb temps are similarly somewhere below the 90th percentile. Correspondingly, heat risk is not overly high today and will be almost completely in the moderate range across the lower deserts. The forecast high today in Phoenix is 112, but we should not need heat watches/warnings and we will continue to message the elevated heat during the latter part of the holiday weekend.

For Monday into the middle portion of the week, we are still looking at generally dry conditions along with elevated temperatures running a few degrees or so above normal. Initially, the ridge remains strong with 500mb heights at or above 590dm and there will be very little change in temps Monday and Tuesday. As we move through the week, flow aloft becomes more southwest but remains rather dry. Low pressure aloft continues to dominate the northern tier of states, and this serves to suppress the upper high keeping it centered south or southeast of Phoenix and allowing the drier southwest flow aloft to persist. By mid week high temperatures fall a degree or so but stay slightly above normal and near the 109 degree mark. Some monsoonal moisture tries to wrap around the high and into far southeast or east central Arizona but any thunderstorm chances should still stay well away from our area through Thursday and POPs will stay very low across south-central Arizona.

As we approach the end of the work week, the weather pattern looks to start changing, although the changes may still not produce a notable increase in moisture or monsoon activity. Rather, by Friday afternoon a very large upper ridge strengthens across much of the central/west central CONUS as a high center at or above 598dm gradually approaches the 4 corners area. This large ridge is forecast nicely by operational and ensemble guidance packages such as GEFS and Ecmwf and confidence in this large feature is rather high. As the high center approaches the 4 corners, flow aloft becomes more south-southeast across Arizona, allowing for a bit of an increase in monsoon moisture into the state. However by Saturday afternoon 500mb heights at the center of the high reach to around 600dm and central desert heights rise into the 596dm to 598dm ballpark. This implies significant warming aloft which will cap the atmosphere and promote stability. Also, given the strength of the high, the monsoon moisture will likely ride around the periphery of the high and not really make much inroads into the lower deserts. Thus, our POPs will stay generally in the single digits Friday into the Weekend and any chance of significant monsoon storms will likely wait until sometime after the end of the 7 day forecast period.

The primary impact of the building upper high will be another heating up of the atmosphere, pushing desert high temps well above the 110 degree mark. NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble output suggest that 850mb temps Saturday into Sunday will climb to near the 97th climatological percentile across portions of the lower deserts. Given that, and 500mb heights that could approach 598dm, we would likely see highs at least 113 if not hotter over the weekend. European ensemble MOS has the 90th percentile high temps at 115 over the weekend with 50th percentile values 113 to 114. We have raised our highs Saturday a couple degrees above the NBM readings and up to 113 degrees. Should these highs materialize, heat risk will climb into the high risk category over portions of the central deserts including the Phoenix area. Thus we will message the heat potential but at this time, given the long time range confidence is too low to warrant heat watches.

AVIATION. Updated at 1737Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Wind speeds will favor typical diurnal tendencies and will generally remain around 10 kts or less, outside of a few hours this afternoon with gusts to 15-20 kts. A period of variability in the wind direction is likely during the morning and overnight hours due to light wind speeds. Skies should remain clear at all terminals, with a few clouds aoa 15-20 kts during the latter half of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Overall, conditions will be hot and dry. Hotter lower deserts will stay near or above 110 degrees pretty much every day. Daytime minimum humidity values will drop below 15% for most places while overnight recoveries will rise into the 20-40% range. Wind speeds will generally be light Thursday through Saturday, outside of typical afternoon breezes up to 20 mph, with directions following local terrain influences. Stronger southwest breezes are possible Tuesday and Wednesday favoring the southwest with gusts over 25 mph possible at times. Moisture will mostly be insufficient for thunderstorms over the region. The best chances for storms will be on Tuesday and possibly on Friday over the higher terrain of southeast Arizona, but these storms will be too far away to send outflows into south central Arizona.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . CB AVIATION . Feldkircher FIRE WEATHER . Hopper/Sawtelle/AD/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi72 minW 410.00 miFair106°F46°F13%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYL

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5W7W7SW5S4S4S8W3CalmSW3W3CalmSE3S53S5W4NW5W7W6W6W4SW8
1 day agoS11
G16
S4W9S13S10S7SW6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmS6SW54W4SW64SE7
2 days agoS12
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S11S16S12S11S9S9S8S9S8CalmNW3NW4CalmE4Calm3S5S5E4SE4CalmSE10

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Sun -- 02:10 AM MST     1.93 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:38 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:58 AM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:20 AM MST     -3.20 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM MST     3.18 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM MST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:09 PM MST     -1.84 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.51.91.70.9-0.2-1.5-2.6-3.2-3.1-2.3-10.51.92.93.22.81.90.7-0.5-1.4-1.8-1.6-0.9

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Sun -- 03:04 AM PDT     4.11 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:17 AM PDT     -1.07 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM PDT     5.15 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:02 PM PDT     0.25 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.93.84.13.831.80.5-0.5-1-0.9-0.11.22.744.95.14.73.82.61.40.60.20.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.