Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 10:31 AM PST (18:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 3:20PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 211556 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 855 AM MST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weather system will continue to move through the Southwest today resulting in a few more scattered showers across the area. Rainfall amounts will be rather light with many areas not totaling much more accumulation. Conditions will trend warmer and drier with high temperatures reaching the low 70s by the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION. Objective analysis depicts a deeper moisture plume and H5 jet streak ejecting into SE AZ, though the larger trough axis has lagged these features through western AZ this morning. As as result, moisture has yet to be scoured from most of the CWA and weak ascent associated with this trough continues to act on this lingering plume of moisture. Consequently, spotty showers have blossomed east of the Colorado River and translating towards central AZ. In the short term, have boosted POPs substantially based on these synoptic features and radar trends. In addition given the expanse of low clouds covering the entire forecast area, have cut forecast highs several degrees while also slowing the rate of diurnal heating (modest at best anyways).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. /431 AM MST Tue Jan 21 2020/ The GOES-17 IR channel shows a deep plume of moisture stretching from west of Guadalupe Island in the Pacific into the Four Corners region ahead of a weak trough. Objective analysis reveals favorable conditions for ascent and shower development are present with this system including diffluence aloft, moderate jet streak dynamics, and minor PVA. The preponderance of the evidence, including ensemble guidance, radar trends, and rain gauges, convey this event will provide meager QPF. Lower desert locations are most likely to see less than 0.10" while the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix may see up to 0.50" as a result from orographically enhanced showers.

By Wednesday morning, some localized areas that received enough rain on Tuesday may reach saturation and experience a few hours of patchy fog. After that, dryer conditions with a gradual warming trend start on Wednesday and continue for the second half of the week as the next ridge of strong high pressure builds across the W CONUS. Highs will rebound to the low 70s by Thursday and the mid 70s by the weekend. Model ensembles suggest the possibility of another weak Pacific system moving into the Southwest early next week which will be the next chance for rain.

AVIATION. Updated at 1130Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: A period of light showers this morning will lead to lowering ceilings, likely down to 3K feet by mid morning in the Phoenix area. Westerly winds are more likely during the shower activity followed by a switch to the east behind the exiting showers by mid to late morning. Low ceilings should last into at least the evening hours with some slight improvement, but the cloud deck will likely not rise above 5-6K feet until sometime Wednesday morning. Winds later today may end up staying out of the east, but a brief period of westerly winds are possible. Easterly winds should then dominate during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Scattered light rain showers will last through around mid morning, likely affecting KBLH and possibly creating erratic wind directions. Ceilings may drop to 6-8K feet for a period this morning before skies mostly scatter out by around Noon. Winds will favor a westerly direction at KIPL through the period with a period of southerly winds likely at KBLH this afternoon before turning out of the north by late evening.

FIRE WEATHER. Thursday through Monday: Temperatures will warm slightly beginning Wednesday and then remaining fairly constant by the weekend. Conditions will be mostly dry with minimum humidity values dropping into the 20-30% range across the lower desert and 30-40% range for the higher terrain. Winds will remain fairly light although the Lower Colorado River Valley may see some gusts up to 20 mph Thursday and Friday. There are indications that another weather system could bring a slight chance for rain early next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.



DISCUSSION . MO/Deems/Sawtelle AVIATION . Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER . Deems


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi35 minSSE 107.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F48°F72%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYL

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE3CalmW3CalmE5SE4W3SE5CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE3CalmNW4S4S5S7S3S10S10
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N9N6N7N6NW4NW4CalmSW3N3NW3CalmNW3NE4NE5NE6N8N5NW3NE4
2 days agoN9N10NE13N10N11--N10NW6NW7N6NW4CalmN6N8NW5N9N10N11N9N4N11N8N11N12

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Tue -- 12:54 AM MST     2.63 meters High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 AM MST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM MST     -1.64 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 07:36 AM MST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:44 PM MST     1.61 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM MST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 PM MST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM MST     -2.81 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.62.31.50.5-0.6-1.3-1.6-1.4-0.800.91.51.61.20.3-0.7-1.8-2.6-2.8-2.4-1.5-0.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Tue -- 12:35 AM PST     4.43 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:53 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM PST     0.68 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 12:24 PM PST     3.65 meters High Tide
Tue -- 02:22 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:04 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:38 PM PST     -0.53 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.34.443.22.21.40.80.711.72.53.23.63.632.21.10.2-0.4-0.5-00.92.23.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.