Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:37PM Thursday July 29, 2021 4:06 PM PDT (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:24PMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 292150 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 250 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Storm chances will increase from east to west across Arizona today with chances expanding into southeast California on Friday and persisting through Saturday. Main storm threats will be strong winds, blowing dust, and locally heavy rainfall. After near normal temperatures today, readings will dip to below normal through the upcoming weekend. Drying conditions starting Sunday will push storm chances back to only the eastern Arizona high terrain, with much of the area staying dry during the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION. Monsoon activity will quickly increase today with multiple weather disturbances poised to affect the region. Current radar loops is already showing convective activity breaking out along the Rim/White Mountains with additional scattered storms now occurring across the lower deserts and over some the Gila County Burn Scars. The main driving force behind thus increase in monsoon storm activity is an westward advancing upper level trough currently moving across northern Mexico. This upper level trough is quite expansive in size and is analyzed as a closed low at 300mb and mostly as an open trough at 500mb. As it continues to track west northwest today into Friday it is forecast to weaken, but much if not all of Arizona is seen coming under broad difluent flow aloft as early as this afternoon.

latest HRRR high-res model runs are showing storms spreading across SW AZ over the next few hours along with more activity moving into southern Gila County. As far as the greater PHX area, this morning's clouds/virga seems to be limiting activity across that region at this hour, but latest SPC HREF model output does indicate storms attempting to move into that region from the east this evening. Storms will be capable of strong gusty winds with multiple outflows expected to form and locally heavy rainfall. With PWATs ranging from 1.3-1.6" and a modest 10 kt east southeasterly steering flow, this should keep storms fairly progressive likely minimizing the potential flood threat over the lower deserts. The biggest threats this afternoon and evening should be strong winds and localized blowing dust with the 12Z HREF highlighting a large area of 70-90% probability of greater than 35 mph winds across the majority of Arizona. Although the HREF shows a greater chance for this to happen across southern Maricopa and Pinal Counties, it could happen anywhere this evening as several outflows are expected. One large westward advancing outflow is likely to reach the Colorado River by late evening with additional showers and weak storms likely across southwest Arizona into southeast California during the early overnight hours tonight.

Friday still looks to be another active monsoon storm day, but with less activity across eastern Arizona as some drier air works in from New Mexico. The weakening upper level trough slowly lifting northwestward through the Desert Southwest should still provide some upper level support, while a trough off the West Coast also provides additional ascent across southern California. Moisture levels Friday will improve over today in most locations with PWATs upwards of 2" across the western deserts, to 1.5-1.75" across much of south-central Arizona, but lowering closer to 1.25" in eastern Arizona. MUCAPEs Friday should also be higher likely ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg from Phoenix westward through southeast California. The storm threats Friday and Friday night is expected to transition more toward heavy rainfall and localized flooding, but southeasterly steering flow of 10-15 kts should keep storms from remaining stationary over one area for very long. Strong winds will continue to be a threat, but mostly in the form of storm downdrafts instead of outflows. Bulk shear also increases by Friday afternoon/evening across southwest Arizona and parts of southeast California, so a few longer lasting severe storms may be possible, along with a greater threat for flash flooding across that area, thus a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for that region.

For Saturday, the inverted trough will become a non-factor as it lifts north, but the lingering trough off the West is forecast to send up another upper jet max out of the south. This jet should again provide broad ascent over much of the area on Saturday, but we begin losing moisture especially across the western deserts. Storm chances for Saturday are still quite uncertain, but NBM PoPs are mostly in a 30-40% range. The drier air working in from the southwest should overtake much of Arizona on Sunday likely limiting storm chances Sunday to the high terrain north and east of Phoenix. The first half of next week also looks to be quite dry and may only involve a few daily afternoon showers and storms across far eastern Arizona. Boundary layer moisture should also gradually lower with each day early next week as the subtropical high reforms initially just to our southwest before slowly drifting over southern California into Arizona by Tuesday or Wednesday. Although NBM high temperatures increase back to around normal readings early next week, would not be surprised if we will have to worry about some areas near excessive heat. If we do dry out the boundary layer next week and a 594dm 500mb ridge is overhead, excessive heat will be a possibility.

AVIATION. Updated at 1854Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Very light showers and virga are moving through the metro area late this morning. Minimal impacts are expected from these showers besides some enhancement to easterly winds. As the showers push east of terminals they may lead to a brief west to southwest wind shift. Otherwise, winds may continue to favor an east to south component through most of the period. Storm chances increase later this afternoon and evening. Latest models are now keeping most of the storms in the periphery of the metro, but for now will keep the mention of VCSH and VCTS in the TAFs. Models are still supporting a 50-70% chance for wind speeds in excess of 30 kts this evening from outflows. The most favorable direction for outflows is from the east to southeast, but cannot rule out outflows from other directions like the southwest. Storms should shift west of the metro before midnight, but some lingering showers are possible overnight. Similar storm chances are expected Friday with development in the afternoon after 20Z. Cloud bases are expected to remain aoa 7 kft through the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Thunderstorm chances at the TAF sites remain below 10% through mid afternoon Thursday but will increase to 15-25% late Thursday evening and early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms over western Arizona are expected to weaken as they cross the lower Colorado River, but still a chance they remain intact near KBLH. At KIPL, the potential for showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the Imperial Valley is more likely to occur Friday morning and or Friday afternoon. Apart from thunderstorms, winds are anticipated to remain light and favor downvalley nocturnal patterns during the overnight hours (through the morning at KBLH) before transitioning to south and southeast directions. An outflow boundary may affect KBLH during the evening, likely favoring a direction of southeast or east. Periods of high clouds are expected today before thickening overnight.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunday through Thursday: Unsettled conditions are likely through Sunday with the last of the weather disturbances moving through the region. This should bring fairly widespread shower and storm chances on Saturday before more limited storms on Sunday. Shower and storm chances for Mon-Thu will be limited to a few storms during the daytime hours over the eastern Arizona high terrain. Main threats on Sunday will be strong thunderstorm winds, heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding. Temperatures will range from near to slightly below normals the bulk of the period. Minimum afternoon humidity values will range from 25-45% through the weekend before falling back to 15-30% early next week. Overnight recovery will be mostly good to excellent in a 40-80% range. Apart from thunderstorms, winds will favor typical daily upslope/drainage patterns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for AZZ530>533-535-536-538-539-559.

CA . Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for CAZ569-570.



DISCUSSION . Kuhlman AVIATION . Benedict/Rogers FIRE WEATHER . Percha/Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi70 minSW 67.00 miMostly Cloudy111°F53°F15%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYL

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4W3W6SW6SW4SW10SW5W3W3S3SW4S4S3S4S3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm53SW6
1 day ago3NW4W5W4SW5S12S10S13S10CalmSW9SW5SE4SE3E5CalmCalmCalmS4SW44S6SW4S7
2 days agoS10S7SW8SW12SW8W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE4NE3CalmCalmS4SW4--CalmCalmSW7

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Thu -- 05:23 AM MST     0.88 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM MST     -1.14 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 11:23 AM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:45 PM MST     1.27 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-0.9-0.40.10.60.90.80.50.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.7-0.20.30.91.21.31.10.70.1-0.4-0.7

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Thu -- 12:36 AM PDT     0.64 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM PDT     3.31 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:32 PM PDT     0.68 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM PDT     3.61 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.711.62.32.93.33.32.92.41.71.10.70.711.62.333.53.63.42.92.31.6

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