Friday, September17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 6:43PM Friday September 17, 2021 3:59 PM PDT (22:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:13PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 171755 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1055 AM MST Fri Sep 17 2021

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. A weak weather system will move through the region today into Saturday bringing increased cloud cover, somewhat cooler temperatures, and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Although many locations may not see measurable rainfall, gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm. Starting Sunday, dry conditions with temperatures hovering near to slightly above average should be common through at least the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION. Current water vapor imagery is showing moisture advection into southern California through southern Arizona in response to increasing southerly flow between a closed low 300 miles west of northern Baja and a strengthening ridge to our southeast. The moisture advection is also evident in the elevated showers that have developed over the past couple hours across northern Baja. We anticipate these showers to continue northward through portions of southeast California early this morning while additional high based showers are likely through southwest Arizona. QPF amounts with any of these showers are likely to be just a trace to maybe a couple hundredths of an inch as very dry air remains in the boundary layer. Also can't rule out some gusty winds this morning with any stronger showers due to evaporative cooling effects within the dry sub-cloud layer.

Increasing moisture is expected to persist through the rest of today, especially in the mid levels, but even within the boundary layer as surface dew points are forecast to increase into the low to mid 60s across much of the lower deserts by late this evening. There is increasing confidence in a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing late this afternoon likely focused south of Phoenix to as far west as southeast California where MUCAPEs are likely to be maximized up to 1000 J/kg. The latest HREF shows the most likely corridor for storms from Pima Co stretching northwestward through southern Maricopa Co, southwest Arizona into eastern Riverside Co. A southerly steering flow is likely to push some of these showers and storms northward during the evening hours, but they are expected to encounter decreasing instability the farther north they go, likely resulting in gradual weakening. Upper level support for storms today will be fairly meager with better ascent likely focused across southeast California. Modest southerly mid level upslope flow will likely be a partial driver of convection today, but with the loss of daytime heating this evening, showers and storms are likely to gradually diminish throughout the evening hours. Primary storm threats today will be gusty winds (possibly a few severe gusts) and blowing dust. Also can't completely rule out a localized heavy rainfall threat if storms manage to get anchored to one spot for a little while or if multiple storms end up training over the same area. Overall the flood threat today is quite low due to marginal PWATs and 15-20 kts of steering flow.

Although shower and storm chances are likely to be waining during the overnight hours Friday night due to the loss of heating, the recent 06Z HRRR suggests additional development will be possible, likely due to increasing forced ascent aloft combining with elevated instability. Better upper level dynamics are expected to be seen on Saturday as much of Arizona eventually falls within the right rear quadrant of a jet streak moving through Utah into Colorado. 00Z models are also holding onto better moisture through Saturday afternoon which suggests another round of showers and storms will be possible, likely from Maricopa County eastward. So far on Saturday, PoPs are generally between 15-20% and the HREF doesn't show much in the way of storm activity, but wouldn't be surprised if this is underdone given the lingering moisture and better dynamics.

For Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level low is forecast to quickly weaken eventually tracking through Arizona as a weak shortwave during the daytime hours Sunday. Much drier air will also be working through the region from west to east leaving only slight chances for a few showers and storms across the eastern Arizona high terrain Sunday afternoon. A building ridge across the eastern Pacific Sunday into Monday is then expected to shift eastward through the Southwestern U.S. early next week which is a bit of a change since model ensembles earlier had favored the ridge mostly staying to our west. After near normal temperatures through this weekend and Monday, this ridge moving into our region is now likely to bring some warming through the middle of next week likely boosting highs back into a 102-105 degree range by around Wednesday. The model ensemble cluster analysis shows a slight majority of members favoring the ridge staying put across the Western U.S. through the latter half of next week, but there is also a minority of members showing potential for a closed low dipping out of the northern flow. So, after next Wednesday forecast confidence lowers considerably, but going with the majority of members suggests a continuation of slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION. Updated at 1755Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light to moderate SE-SW component winds are favored this afternoon with partly to mostly cloudy skies including SCT-BKN decks of 12-18 kft. New shower and storm development is anticipated in Pinal and southern Maricopa counties this afternoon. The chance storms spread north into the metro area is low (~10-15%), but there are good chances for a southerly to southwesterly outflow to push through the terminals around 00-01Z with a 20-30% chance for outflow winds in excess of 30 kts. Winds may remain southerly or southwesterly until the typical diurnal easterly shift later in the evening. The latest model runs now favor a chance of showers and storms moving north through the metro area Saturday afternoon. Confidence is to low to include thunderstorms however VCSH is included in the TAF for Sat afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

There are continuing chances for storms this afternoon and early evening in the region, but still only 10-20% at the terminals. Any convective shower or storm will be capable gusty erratic winds. The probability of winds in excess of 30 kts from showers and storms is 30-50% in the region. Skies will be SCT to BKN at times with bases around 10-15 kft. Winds outside of showers and storms should follow typical diurnal trends.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunday through Thursday: Lingering moisture across eastern Arizona on Sunday may lead to some isolated showers and storms across the high terrain, but drying conditions will be seen elsewhere. This drier air will then dominate through at least the middle of next week as high pressure strengthens across the region. High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly above normal. Afternoon RH values will start off mainly between 20-25% on Sunday from south-central Arizona and areas east before lowering to 10-15% starting Monday. Overnight RH recoveries will generally range from 25-40% through most of the period. Winds will be fairly breezy on Sunday, but generally will remain light while directions favor local diurnal/terrain influences through the rest of the period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Kuhlman AVIATION . Sawtelle/Benedict FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi63 minSE 97.00 miPartly Cloudy101°F65°F31%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYL

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5CalmW5NW6S8S7S6S4S5S7S6S6S8SE8SE10SE8SE10S13S9S9S10
G15
S8S11SE9
1 day agoS9S3S4S4S4W4W3W4CalmS5CalmCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW843S86SE3
2 days agoS9SW4S5CalmCalmW13W8S6W6Calm--NE4CalmCalmS6S3--S9S10S8SW7S9SW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Fri -- 12:30 AM MST     1.70 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:50 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:23 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM MST     -2.75 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 12:58 PM MST     3.18 meters High Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:12 PM MST     -2.42 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.10.1-1-2.1-2.7-2.7-2-0.90.61.92.93.22.81.80.5-0.9-1.9-2.4-2.2-1.4-0.21

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Fri -- 01:06 AM PDT     3.62 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM PDT     -0.42 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 01:43 PM PDT     4.88 meters High Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:57 PM PDT     0.04 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.63.42.81.80.8-0-0.4-0.20.51.62.944.74.94.43.42.21.10.300.41.22.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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