Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:06PM Thursday January 21, 2021 8:16 PM PST (04:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:45PMMoonset 1:22AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 220015 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 515 PM MST Thu Jan 21 2021

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. After a brief break in the activity tonight and Friday, another weather system will dive into the western United States over the weekend resulting in additional chances for rain, high elevation snowfall, and even cooler temperatures. Yet another similar cold and wet system is likely to move through the area early next week with deserts highs dropping into the low to mid 50s by next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION. Latest satellite and radar imagery at this hour is now showing scattered showers over much of SE AZ as the upper low center that is responsible for the wet weather the last few days slowly moves eastward along the International Border (currently centered just west of Nogales. Drier air filtering in from the west behind this low center has pretty much ended the showers over our CWA and is slowly clearing the skies from west to east. As the low pushes east of the area tonight, a brief flat short wave ridge will follow but low level moisture will remain high and a few lingering isolated light showers will likely remain mainly over high terrain east of Phoenix. As we move into Friday, we will head into another very unsettled period as the second in a series of Pacific low pressure systems start to approach Arizona from the west. The system will drop into central California and southwest flow ahead of it will spread across the area; weak UVV along with some upslope flow will allow isolated showers to develop mainly across high terrain areas north and east of Phoenix during the day Friday; any precipitation will be rather light. High temperatures will not change much but will lower slightly and into the mid to upper 60s across most of the deserts under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

This weekend into the early to middle portion of next week is still shaping up to be very wet and unsettled with at least 2 significant weather systems anticipated to move through the desert southwest and Arizona. The consensus of operational/ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the first system will mainly affect the area Saturday night into Sunday and the second from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Although ensemble guidance gives high confidence to the overall cool, wet nature of the pattern over a multi-day period, unfortunately there is still a fair amount of disagreement regarding details such as expected rain amounts and timing of the systems. Cluster analysis from the CMC, GEFS and ENS suggests there will be significant negative height anomalies (2-3 SD below the mean) across the southwest CONUS Saturday into Wednesday, with two main closed lows moving across the region. The latest GEFS and EPS ensembles are now drawing into closer agreement on the QPF on each system . with the lower deserts seeing between 0.25 and 1.25 inches total with the next 2 systems and 1-2 inches across the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Rainfall amounts will be least across SE CA, then gradually increase as one heads eastward across SW/S-Central AZ. The weekend and early next week storms will be increasingly colder, and there will be the possibility of isolated thunder mainly during afternoon hours and should storm develop they would be able to locally enhance rain totals.

Snow levels will be dropping steadily and will fall below 4000 feet by Monday night, then to around 3000 feet by early Tuesday, with a growing potential for some locally heavy snow below 5000 feet mainly over areas north and east of Globe. The weekend storm may drop a couple of inches but the next system (Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon) will likely result in at least 4 inches of snow; NBM suggests nearly a 30 percent chance of 8 inches of snow northeast of Globe and a 70 percent chance of at least 4 inches. At this time our forecast snow totals exceed 6 inches in the 5 pm Monday to 5 pm Tuesday range for areas below 5000 feet (snow level down near 3000 feet).

Of course, as the cold systems roll in, temperatures across the deserts will steadily fall and near normal highs Friday will fall sharply and into the upper 50s across central deserts on Sunday and then into the low to mid 50s by Tuesday. Correspondingly low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning will approach freezing in typical favored locations such as Bouse/Tacna and areas in the outskirts of the greater Phoenix area. Further into the extended, there is growing consensus that a 3rd system could affect the region later next week, but there remains considerable uncertainty what impacts it may bring to the region.

AVIATION. Updated at 0014Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light south to southwest winds, with speeds remaining below 8 kts, are expected through the evening before switching to an easterly component near or just after midnight. FEW-SCT clouds around 8 kft are expected to drop to around 5-6 kft overnight and continue into the morning, with some BKN cigs possible at times. Decks are expected to then climb to around 7 kft by tomorrow afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds at the terminals are expected to favor a light south to southwest component through the overnight hours before transitioning to a south to southeasterly component around 14Z. Mostly clear skies are expected to continue through much of the period with a few clouds around 7 kft or higher.

FIRE WEATHER. Saturday through Wednesday: A rather unsettled weather period will persist this weekend through early next week with a weather system affecting the region Saturday night into Sunday and likely another early next week. Showers will become possible mainly over high terrain areas Saturday with periods of scattered showers over the deserts and more widespread rain and snow over the high terrain on late Saturday into Sunday. Breezy conditions are likely to affect much of the region at times, especially on Monday. The second weather is likely to push through the region early next week likely bringing more rounds of modest precip. The cooler conditions and increased moisture during the period will lead to continued favorable humidity readings as minimum daily are likely to stay above 40% much of the period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Percha/CB AVIATION . Smith FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi20 minS 47.00 miA Few Clouds58°F53°F84%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYL

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE9NE12N7N7N5CalmN5N6N7N7N7NE6NE5N5CalmW5W7W6W4W4CalmCalmS4
1 day agoNE7NE9E10CalmNE9NE11NE11NE16NE14NE15NE14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3S4E7NE11NE10NE9N6SE11E13E16E17NE13NE9NE9NE9NE10NE7

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Thu -- 01:22 AM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:27 AM MST     0.00 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM MST     0.35 meters High Tide
Thu -- 12:44 PM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:24 PM MST     -0.82 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:03 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:39 PM MST     0.80 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10000.10.10.20.30.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.30.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Thu -- 12:22 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:52 AM PST     1.75 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM PST     2.77 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:07 PM PST     1.18 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:05 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM PST     2.78 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.81.81.822.32.52.72.82.72.52.21.81.51.31.21.21.51.82.12.42.72.82.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.