Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Luis, AZ
March 28, 2024 7:06 PM PDT (02:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 6:57 PM Moonrise 10:23 PM Moonset 8:10 AM |
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 282351 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 451 PM MST Thu Mar 28 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
A strong low pressure system will bring windy conditions and excellent rain chances to the Desert Southwest this weekend through early next week. Winds will ramp up across SE California tonight and Friday with stronger winds overspreading the entire forecast area on Saturday. A cold front will progress through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, resulting in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to brief heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered showers will persist Sunday through Monday with accumulating rainfall totals between 0.50"-1.50" possible across southcentral AZ. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday before falling well below normal Sunday and Monday.
DISCUSSION
An active weather pattern will set up across the Desert Southwest this weekend into early next week. The main impacts ahead of the approaching storm system will be strong gradient winds Friday and Saturday followed by a potential robust line of showers/storms late Saturday night through early Sunday. On/off showers and storms will be possible through at least Monday until the system progresses east of our region.
Before all the action begins, we will end the workweek with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions area-wide. A deep upper level low, which will be our big weather maker, is now located just off the Pac NW coast. This low will begin to deepen and track swd over the next 24 hrs. As this occurs, we will see increasing W-SW flow aloft. Latest deterministic models show a tightening 500-700 hpa height gradient over SE California beginning tonight and persisting through much of the day on Friday. In response, wind speeds will ramp up, especially across western Imperial County as early as this evening. Latest NAM 12 cross-section analysis reveals a prominent mountain wave signature developing over SW Imperial County around 00Z tonight and persisting into early Friday morning. Winds will begin to gust across the higher terrain and spread ewd into the Imperial Valley tonight. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for W Imperial County including El Centro through 2 AM PDT Friday. Gusty winds should subside across most of Imperial County early Friday morning, but will redevelop again Friday afternoon as a stout mid-lvl jet becoming positioned over SE California. Thus, the Wind Advisory will expand after 21Z Friday to include all of Imperial, E Riverside County, and the CO River Valley where gusts could reach 40- 45 mph.
The main story will continue to be wind as we head into Saturday.
Deep southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the entire forecast area by Saturday afternoon with an unseasonably strong 500 mb jet approaching 60-70 kts situated over southcentral AZ. Another Wind Advisory is almost a sure bet to be issued Saturday afternoon for the central deserts of AZ including the Phoenix Metro area where gusts will likely (60-70%) exceed 40 mph. Blowing dust may also become an issue in the most dust prone areas of N Pinal and S Maricopa Counties.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Our attention will then turn to a cold front associated with the main leading shortwave ahead of the approaching upper low. Mid- level moisture will continue to increase throughout Saturday evening with PWATs peaking around 0.8-0.9". As the cold front begins to migrate ewd Saturday night, a line of showers, potentially evolving into a broken squall line with embedded thunderstorms, is expected to develop across southeast CA and push ewd overnight. The main concern associated with these showers will be strong to severe wind gusts, and brief heavy rainfall.
For the rest of Sunday, the cold core portion of the upper low will move east over our region with additional showers expected later in the afternoon and through the evening. There also very well could be a few isolated thunderstorms later on Sunday as lapse rates improve and some weak instability develops mainly from Phoenix and areas west of Phoenix. There is also model evidence showing good shower potential lasting through the overnight hours Sunday night across south-central Arizona. As the cold core low remains in place over much of the region through Monday, shower chances should persist. Depending on how much insolation can be realized during the daytime hours Monday, its very possible some areas could see some low-topped convective thunderstorms Monday afternoon with small hail and brief heavy downpours the most likely impacts.
As far as expected rainfall amounts, ample moisture will be present this weekend, especially along and just ahead of the front when there will be the most widespread rainfall. The additional shower and potential thunderstorm activity later on Sunday and Monday should also add a decent amount to the rainfall totals from Maricopa County and areas to the east. The latest storm total forecast rainfall amounts are calling for between 0.10-0.25" for areas west of the Colorado River to 0.50-1.00" in the Phoenix area. Higher terrain areas northeast of Phoenix could receive as much as 1.5" in a few spots. This rainfall is likely to be spread out across a 2-day period, so at this point we are not anticipating much if any of a localized flood threat.
Temperatures this weekend will also be something to take note of as high temperatures Saturday will drop roughly 20 degrees to Sunday's daytime highs. Given the timing of the cold front during the early morning hours Sunday, much of south-central Arizona is likely to see highs reached just after midnight in the mid to upper 60s with temperatures falling well into the 50s by sunrise Sunday morning.
Daytime temperatures will recover somewhat by the afternoon, but depending on the cloud cover some areas Sunday afternoon may struggle to get into the lower 60s.
For early next week as the weakening upper low is trying to linger over eastern portions of the region, temperatures will be slow to moderate. Forecast highs for Monday are 10-13 degrees below normals with highs still in the 60s in Phoenix before likely improving into the mid 70s on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance heavy favors a ridge to begin building into the region by next Wednesday and this should briefly push highs back into the 80s for 2-3 days later next week.
AVIATION
Updated at 2350Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period under gradually clearing SCT-BKN high clouds. Winds have finally established out of the SW late this afternoon after a somewhat prolonged period of variability. Speeds will remain light, aob 10 kt sustained through tomorrow morning, as winds gradually return to their typical SE drainage directions by late this evening. Winds will veer out of the S-SW by late tomorrow morning (between 16-18Z) and then increase out of the SW by tomorrow afternoon, with gusts into the upper teens to low 20s.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy to windy conditions will be the main aviation concern during the period. W'rly gusts between 25-35 kts will be common this evening at IPL with elevated gusts potentially lasting through Friday morning. These enhanced winds will be capable of producing areas of of blowing dust leading to periods of reduced visibilities. At BLH, S/SW'rly gusts 20-25 kts will commence this evening before speeds calm through early tonight. Winds will again pick up out of the W-SW at both terminals tomorrow morning with gusts into the upper 20s, followed by the strongest speeds late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. FEW-SCT high clouds can be expected through tonight before clearing out by tomorrow morning.
FIRE WEATHER
Seasonably warm and dry conditions will persist through Friday, but with increasing winds each day. Winds today will be light across the eastern districts, but breezy to locally windy across portions of southeast CA this afternoon and evening. Winds Friday will increase further across the entire area with afternoon wind gusts between 30-40 mph across the western districts to around 25 mph over the eastern districts. MinRHs both days are likely to reach into the mid teens across the lower deserts to 20-25% over higher terrain areas. Friday afternoon may bring a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions within the Lower CO River Valley. By the weekend, a strong low pressure system will be moving in from the west bringing widespread windy conditions during the daytime Saturday, fairly widespread wetting rains Saturday night into Sunday, and cooler temperatures starting Sunday.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM MST Friday for AZZ530.
CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ560-561- 563>570.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for CAZ563-566-567.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 451 PM MST Thu Mar 28 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
A strong low pressure system will bring windy conditions and excellent rain chances to the Desert Southwest this weekend through early next week. Winds will ramp up across SE California tonight and Friday with stronger winds overspreading the entire forecast area on Saturday. A cold front will progress through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, resulting in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to brief heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered showers will persist Sunday through Monday with accumulating rainfall totals between 0.50"-1.50" possible across southcentral AZ. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday before falling well below normal Sunday and Monday.
DISCUSSION
An active weather pattern will set up across the Desert Southwest this weekend into early next week. The main impacts ahead of the approaching storm system will be strong gradient winds Friday and Saturday followed by a potential robust line of showers/storms late Saturday night through early Sunday. On/off showers and storms will be possible through at least Monday until the system progresses east of our region.
Before all the action begins, we will end the workweek with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions area-wide. A deep upper level low, which will be our big weather maker, is now located just off the Pac NW coast. This low will begin to deepen and track swd over the next 24 hrs. As this occurs, we will see increasing W-SW flow aloft. Latest deterministic models show a tightening 500-700 hpa height gradient over SE California beginning tonight and persisting through much of the day on Friday. In response, wind speeds will ramp up, especially across western Imperial County as early as this evening. Latest NAM 12 cross-section analysis reveals a prominent mountain wave signature developing over SW Imperial County around 00Z tonight and persisting into early Friday morning. Winds will begin to gust across the higher terrain and spread ewd into the Imperial Valley tonight. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for W Imperial County including El Centro through 2 AM PDT Friday. Gusty winds should subside across most of Imperial County early Friday morning, but will redevelop again Friday afternoon as a stout mid-lvl jet becoming positioned over SE California. Thus, the Wind Advisory will expand after 21Z Friday to include all of Imperial, E Riverside County, and the CO River Valley where gusts could reach 40- 45 mph.
The main story will continue to be wind as we head into Saturday.
Deep southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the entire forecast area by Saturday afternoon with an unseasonably strong 500 mb jet approaching 60-70 kts situated over southcentral AZ. Another Wind Advisory is almost a sure bet to be issued Saturday afternoon for the central deserts of AZ including the Phoenix Metro area where gusts will likely (60-70%) exceed 40 mph. Blowing dust may also become an issue in the most dust prone areas of N Pinal and S Maricopa Counties.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Our attention will then turn to a cold front associated with the main leading shortwave ahead of the approaching upper low. Mid- level moisture will continue to increase throughout Saturday evening with PWATs peaking around 0.8-0.9". As the cold front begins to migrate ewd Saturday night, a line of showers, potentially evolving into a broken squall line with embedded thunderstorms, is expected to develop across southeast CA and push ewd overnight. The main concern associated with these showers will be strong to severe wind gusts, and brief heavy rainfall.
For the rest of Sunday, the cold core portion of the upper low will move east over our region with additional showers expected later in the afternoon and through the evening. There also very well could be a few isolated thunderstorms later on Sunday as lapse rates improve and some weak instability develops mainly from Phoenix and areas west of Phoenix. There is also model evidence showing good shower potential lasting through the overnight hours Sunday night across south-central Arizona. As the cold core low remains in place over much of the region through Monday, shower chances should persist. Depending on how much insolation can be realized during the daytime hours Monday, its very possible some areas could see some low-topped convective thunderstorms Monday afternoon with small hail and brief heavy downpours the most likely impacts.
As far as expected rainfall amounts, ample moisture will be present this weekend, especially along and just ahead of the front when there will be the most widespread rainfall. The additional shower and potential thunderstorm activity later on Sunday and Monday should also add a decent amount to the rainfall totals from Maricopa County and areas to the east. The latest storm total forecast rainfall amounts are calling for between 0.10-0.25" for areas west of the Colorado River to 0.50-1.00" in the Phoenix area. Higher terrain areas northeast of Phoenix could receive as much as 1.5" in a few spots. This rainfall is likely to be spread out across a 2-day period, so at this point we are not anticipating much if any of a localized flood threat.
Temperatures this weekend will also be something to take note of as high temperatures Saturday will drop roughly 20 degrees to Sunday's daytime highs. Given the timing of the cold front during the early morning hours Sunday, much of south-central Arizona is likely to see highs reached just after midnight in the mid to upper 60s with temperatures falling well into the 50s by sunrise Sunday morning.
Daytime temperatures will recover somewhat by the afternoon, but depending on the cloud cover some areas Sunday afternoon may struggle to get into the lower 60s.
For early next week as the weakening upper low is trying to linger over eastern portions of the region, temperatures will be slow to moderate. Forecast highs for Monday are 10-13 degrees below normals with highs still in the 60s in Phoenix before likely improving into the mid 70s on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance heavy favors a ridge to begin building into the region by next Wednesday and this should briefly push highs back into the 80s for 2-3 days later next week.
AVIATION
Updated at 2350Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period under gradually clearing SCT-BKN high clouds. Winds have finally established out of the SW late this afternoon after a somewhat prolonged period of variability. Speeds will remain light, aob 10 kt sustained through tomorrow morning, as winds gradually return to their typical SE drainage directions by late this evening. Winds will veer out of the S-SW by late tomorrow morning (between 16-18Z) and then increase out of the SW by tomorrow afternoon, with gusts into the upper teens to low 20s.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy to windy conditions will be the main aviation concern during the period. W'rly gusts between 25-35 kts will be common this evening at IPL with elevated gusts potentially lasting through Friday morning. These enhanced winds will be capable of producing areas of of blowing dust leading to periods of reduced visibilities. At BLH, S/SW'rly gusts 20-25 kts will commence this evening before speeds calm through early tonight. Winds will again pick up out of the W-SW at both terminals tomorrow morning with gusts into the upper 20s, followed by the strongest speeds late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. FEW-SCT high clouds can be expected through tonight before clearing out by tomorrow morning.
FIRE WEATHER
Seasonably warm and dry conditions will persist through Friday, but with increasing winds each day. Winds today will be light across the eastern districts, but breezy to locally windy across portions of southeast CA this afternoon and evening. Winds Friday will increase further across the entire area with afternoon wind gusts between 30-40 mph across the western districts to around 25 mph over the eastern districts. MinRHs both days are likely to reach into the mid teens across the lower deserts to 20-25% over higher terrain areas. Friday afternoon may bring a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions within the Lower CO River Valley. By the weekend, a strong low pressure system will be moving in from the west bringing widespread windy conditions during the daytime Saturday, fairly widespread wetting rains Saturday night into Sunday, and cooler temperatures starting Sunday.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM MST Friday for AZZ530.
CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ560-561- 563>570.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for CAZ563-566-567.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Tide / Current for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:04 AM MST 2.26 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM MST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM MST Moonset
Thu -- 09:14 AM MST -2.65 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM MST 2.38 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 PM MST Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM MST -1.74 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 10:23 PM MST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:04 AM MST 2.26 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM MST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM MST Moonset
Thu -- 09:14 AM MST -2.65 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM MST 2.38 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 PM MST Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM MST -1.74 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 10:23 PM MST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet
12 am |
-0.1 |
1 am |
1 |
2 am |
1.9 |
3 am |
2.3 |
4 am |
2 |
5 am |
1.2 |
6 am |
0 |
7 am |
-1.2 |
8 am |
-2.2 |
9 am |
-2.6 |
10 am |
-2.5 |
11 am |
-1.7 |
12 pm |
-0.6 |
1 pm |
0.7 |
2 pm |
1.7 |
3 pm |
2.3 |
4 pm |
2.3 |
5 pm |
1.8 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
-0.2 |
8 pm |
-1.1 |
9 pm |
-1.7 |
10 pm |
-1.7 |
11 pm |
-1.2 |
San Felipe
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM PDT 4.37 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 10:24 AM PDT -0.54 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM PDT 4.51 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 10:42 PM PDT 0.26 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM PDT 4.37 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 10:24 AM PDT -0.54 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM PDT 4.51 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 10:42 PM PDT 0.26 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico, Tide feet
12 am |
0.8 |
1 am |
1.8 |
2 am |
3 |
3 am |
3.9 |
4 am |
4.3 |
5 am |
4.2 |
6 am |
3.4 |
7 am |
2.3 |
8 am |
1.1 |
9 am |
0.1 |
10 am |
-0.5 |
11 am |
-0.4 |
12 pm |
0.2 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
2.6 |
3 pm |
3.7 |
4 pm |
4.4 |
5 pm |
4.5 |
6 pm |
4 |
7 pm |
3.1 |
8 pm |
2 |
9 pm |
1 |
10 pm |
0.4 |
11 pm |
0.3 |
Yuma, AZ,
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