NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

The stubborn stationary front that has lingered around our area the last few days still remains draped across our waters into the northern Florida Peninsula. This front has been helping generate mostly light showers across the area this afternoon. The stationary front will sag just a bit southward tonight as another cold front pushes south over Alabama and Georgia.

Overall, with ascent decreasing and the front sagging a bit farther south, showers will generally fade this evening over land and start picking up over the waters tonight. Some of this may be near the Gulf and Franklin County coasts, which could result in some locally heavy downpours, but the greater chance is offshore. Given the lingering moisture, some patchy fog is possible across the Florida Big Bend and I-75 corridor tonight. Some drier and slightly cooler air may make it to our northernmost counties by daybreak as the next cold front starts sagging into our area. Lows will range from the mid 60s farther north to the lower 70s elsewhere.

For Sunday, given the front being a bit farther south, have opted to shift the highest rain chances a bit farther south. Still expect intermittent showers across the southern half of the area tomorrow, which keeps rain chances around 50-70%. Cloud cover will limit instability, so not expecting many thunderstorms, if any, on land.
However, with Gulf and Franklin Counties still being closest to the front, can't rule out some heavy downpours. Clouds may erode on the northwestern edge of our area with the drier air in place. Thus, highs east of the ACF basin will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lower to middle 80s west of the ACF.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Gloomy weather likely sticks around to start the work week thanks in part, to a lingering frontal boundary draped across the Northern Gulf. Surface high pressure anchored over the OH/TN Valley maintains a fetch of shallow/cool NE flow overridden by moist SW flow aloft. As we have seen the past couple days, this pattern is favorable for prevailing cloudiness with periods of showers or light-to-moderate rain and embedded thunder via isentropic ascent and a series of upper impulses rippling through. The relative exceptions may be our far northern counties where there may be just enough dry air to lessen sky cover. Highest rain chances are south of I-10 in closer proximity to the front.

Given that temperatures have struggled to eclipse 80 degrees under this regime, opted to use a blend of local CAMS/NBM25 for Monday's highs, which yields widespread low 80s (isolated upper 70s). Overnight lows range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Parts of the Wiregrass may even see low/mid 60s late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Unsettled conditions persist as an area of low pressure (AL91) over the SW Gulf interacts with the lingering frontal boundary, then likely organizes into a tropical cyclone early to mid next week (50- 70% of development the next 2-7 days). This system is forecast to track northward parallel along the TX Coast from the Bay of Campeche before moving ashore somewhere along the NW Gulf Coast late in the work week. Regardless of formation, slugs of deep tropical moisture advecting our way should at least maintain areas of cloudiness and high rain chances along/south of the FL state line. Hazardous marine & beach conditions may also materialize depending on AL91's evolution. Stay tuned!

For high temperatures, decided to go with a NBM/NBM25 blend to account for the continued thick cloud cover, yielding widespread low 80s through Thursday, followed by a few degrees of warming to close out the period. Overnight lows in the low 70s will be common with isolated upper 60s possible.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the time being at most TAF sites outside of KTLH tonight. That trend should continue a few more hours before ceilings lower to MVFR just before dawn. Showers are forecast to develop across Florida over the next couple of hours and spread northeast, as has been the trend the past few days.
Locally lower ceilings and visibility can be expected within these showers. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at most TAF sites through the morning before lifting to VFR later this afternoon. A return to MVFR ceilings is possible near the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Unsettled weather is expected to continue thanks to a lingering frontal boundary draped across the Northern Gulf. High rain chances remain in the forecast with cells capable of waterspouts, locally gusty winds, lightning, and reduced visibility from heavy rain. An area of low pressure is also being monitored by the NHC over the Bay of Campeche and has a medium of high of tropical development over the next 2 to 7 days. This system is forecast to move north paralleling the Texas Coast while interacting with the aforementioned front. Depending on the evolution, hazardous marine conditions could materialize early to mid next week. Stay tuned.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Abundant cloud cover as well as occasional showers and isolated storms will keep dispersions low across the southern half of our area Sunday and Monday. Farther north, breaks in clouds, less rain, and slightly stronger east to northeast transport winds will result in fair to good dispersions. Fire weather concerns remain low over the next few days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Since Thursday afternoon, Gulf and Franklin County have picked up 3- 6" of rain with other pockets of heavy rain observed across SW GA.
Elsewhere, amounts have been largely unimpressive as the frontal boundary partly responsible for this wet pattern has struggled to make northward progress, thus pinning much of the heaviest activity along the immediate coast and offshore.

Given these antecedent conditions and trends going forward, we allowed the Flood Watch to expire this afternoon. That said, isolated locations could still experience heavy rain, particularly along the Forgotten Coasts, but the overall flood threat appears to have decreased. There are also no riverine concerns at this time.

Periods of wet weather stick around for at least the next several days as the front remains in somewhat close proximity with a moist airmass remaining entrenched over the region. The evolution of a tropical disturbance over the Western Gulf will dictate how precipitation pans out next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 80 69 79 70 / 60 50 40 20 Panama City 81 70 81 71 / 60 60 60 40 Dothan 83 68 80 66 / 30 20 20 10 Albany 78 67 80 65 / 40 30 20 10 Valdosta 79 69 81 69 / 70 50 40 20 Cross City 82 72 85 73 / 80 50 60 20 Apalachicola 80 72 81 73 / 70 60 60 60

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.