Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montgomery, GA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Early Evening and Overnight: Weak mid-lvl energy rounding the southeastern most edge of a trough positioned across the Ohio River Valley will continue to support scattered/numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms locally within highly moist and mild conditions early evening, but will display a weakening/waning trend due to a lack of environmental shear, loss of diurnal heating, and worked over environment from previous convection throughout the day.
A bulk of guidance suggests all areas to become precip-free by midnight, and remain dry through the remainder of the night. Light southerly winds and some clouds will maintain mild/warm conditions overnight along the northeast edge of the Atlantic ridge. In general, lows should range in the low-mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for each successive day in the short term as South Carolina and Georgia remain on the periphery of a mid-level ridge. Further west over the ArkLaTex, a mid level weakness will start to break off from the main flow with mid-level ridging remaining centered over northwest Mexico and east of Florida. The weakness will remain close enough to allow for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Usually when this type of synoptic setup occurs, convective initiation occurs sooner than pure climatology (12 - 2 PM instead of a 2 - 4 PM start time). Mean cloud layer flow on Sunday and Monday is mostly 15 kt or less, so the probability for any severe weather is forecast to remain <5%. On Tuesday, mean cloud layer flow does tick up to around 20 kt, but this still will keep severe probabilities below 5%. The main threat with this type of setup will be for locally heavy rainfall as mean flow is weak with PWATs around 2.00". Expect high temperatures to be near 90 degrees F each day with lows in the mid 70s. Head index values are forecast to reach around 100 degrees F each day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Not much change in the sensible weather Tuesday night through Saturday. The pattern continues to support daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with high temperatures slightly warmer, or in the low 90s. Heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees F, but will still be in the 103-107 degrees F range.

Taking a look at the cluster analysis, also supports the above.
Interestingly, the latest run of the deterministic GFS shows a mid- level low breaking off over New England by the end of the long term with a back door front possibly sliding through South Carolina. However, the cluster analysis shows little in the way of ensemble support for this with around 9% of the overall ensemble solution space (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) with some variant of this answer, while the other ~91% of the ensemble space showing a much less amplified mid- level low.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Early evening showers are expected to wane and/or shift offshore by around 02-03Z, with the exception of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm lingering at the SAV until around 01Z this evening.
TEMPO MVFR conditions are possible between 00-01Z at SAV due to showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through at least 14-16Z Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms return at all terminals early Sunday afternoon, leading to VCTS at all sites in the current TAF issuance. TEMPO flight restrictions will likely be required between the 18Z Sunday to 00Z Monday time frame at all terminals, but will need to be introduced in later TAF issuances as probabilities increase and higher confidence in timing occurs.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

MARINE
Tonight: Convection ongoing across local waters should wane early evening, although there is a secondary cluster of thunderstorms approaching southern Georgia waters during the next 1-2 hours. Much of this activity should weaken before entering local waters as well given a worked over environment. Nevertheless, a few Marine Weather Statements are possible across southern Georgia waters should activity remain somewhat organized early this evening. Otherwise, the local area will remain positioned between an Atlantic ridge to the east-southeast and a trough approaching the central and southern Appalachian Mountains late night. The pattern supports conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels through the night, with south to southwest winds generally around 15 kt and seas ranging between 2-4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: Typical summertime conditions will prevail over the waters with high pressure centered offshore of the Southeast United States. A broad, southerly wind regime can be expected with winds generally averaging 15 kt or less, except a bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will remain 4 ft or less through the period.

Rip Currents: Swell will begin to increase in period to around 9s on Sunday with a southwest wind around 10 to 15 kt. This will continue into Monday allowing a moderate risk of rip currents to persist at all area beaches through Monday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.