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FXUS64 KEPZ 280944 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 244 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 228 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

Quiet weather is expected today and tomorrow with mild afternoon temperatures. Breezy to windy conditions arrive for Thursday and Friday along with a shot for some light precip. Quiet and cool weather is expected this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

Quiet weather will be the rule for today and tomorrow. Our area sits at the base of a ridge with the southern branch of the jet stream just to our south. The result of this weak zonal flow will be warming temperatures and light winds but with periods of high clouds. The quiet weather ends Wednesday. That's because a closed low located off the OR/CA coast will swing southward slowly today and more rapidly Wednesday, moving ashore Wednesday afternoon.
Increasing flow throughout the column will cause gradients to tighten, which means winds will become breezy to low-end windy on Thursday. There's still some uncertainty on where the core of the low will track, but it's looking increasingly likely it will track far enough south to give just about everyone at shot at light rain or snow in the mountains. The system won't have a great deal of moisture with it, but the cold core and system dynamics will make use of whatever moisture it does have. At least scattered showers will accompany it across NM and perhaps as far south as the International Border into TX. Again, amounts will be light with most lowland locations staying below 0.10" while the mountains may see closer to 0.25", resulting an inch or so of snow above 8000'.

Another system follows quickly on its heels on Friday, which will help keep winds breezy. This system is weaker and even more starved for moisture, so mainly mountains and perhaps western lowlands may see a little precip. Amounts will be light, if any though for those who do see rain. The ECMWF is notably slower and deeper with this system, which would shift precip chances by about 24 hours, but still with only light precip amounts. Regardless, we look to finish the period beneath NW flow aloft allowing gradually warming temperatures into early next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR condition expected for the next 24 hours. We will have quiet weather tonight and Tuesday. Right now a lot of the high clouds have moved off to the east, but later tonight, more high clouds move in to replace them. We will have off an on high broken ceilings for most of the day on Tuesday and by Tuesday afternoon some lower clouds may also slip into the region, but ceilings look to remain above 20K feet. Our winds tonight will be light and those light winds will continue on Tuesday with either light and variable winds or light winds out of the east.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 228 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

No fire concerns through the period. Min RH values will drop into the 30s each afternoon with strong overnight recoveries. Winds will be light today and tomorrow as well. Winds increase for Thursday, topping out around 20 MPH, but min RH values will remain in the 30s with light showers possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 62 43 68 46 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 57 39 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 57 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 41 26 43 25 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 54 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 40 Silver City 54 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 50 Deming 59 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 59 36 64 35 / 0 0 0 40 West El Paso Metro 60 44 65 45 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 58 37 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 40 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 62 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 58 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 59 42 64 43 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 57 34 63 36 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 59 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 30 Columbus 59 38 63 41 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 57 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 55 31 57 31 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 50 29 53 29 / 0 0 0 20 Timberon 49 29 52 27 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 53 27 57 28 / 0 0 0 40 Hillsboro 55 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 56 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 30 Lake Roberts 57 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 60 Hurley 57 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 40 Cliff 62 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 60 Mule Creek 58 35 59 34 / 0 0 0 70 Faywood 56 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 60 34 66 35 / 0 0 0 40 Hachita 58 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 20 Antelope Wells 59 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 20 Cloverdale 58 37 60 36 / 0 0 0 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

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