Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX
July 2, 2024 11:30 PM MDT (05:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:54 AM Moonset 4:32 PM |
FXUS64 KEPZ 030527 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Starting on Wednesday through the end of the week, we will see lower rain chances across with our high temperatures running just a few degrees above average. For the weekend, we will continue to see warm temperatures with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. More of the same for the start of next week, we will see daily afternoon and even thunderstorm chances with high temperatures running a few degrees above average.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
We have had several active thunderstorm days but the upper level ridge that has been pumping the moisture into the region is beginning to weaken and drier air will begin to push back into the area. For tonight we will see scattered evening thunderstorms.
Clouds and showers may linger into the morning hours, and the clouds may last into much of Wednesday. I have lowered some of our rain chances on Wednesday because of the lack of heating but also because the influence of the upper level ridge to our east will be replaced by an upper level ridge to our west. The clockwise circulation around the ridge is great when it is to our east, as it pulls moisture up out of Mexico and into our region. But that same clockwise rotation works against us when the upper level ridge is to our west as it pulls drier air down into the region from Colorado. Later in the monsoon season when more moisture is spread all around the region, it won't matter so much what the wind direction is. But right now as the western ridge strengthens it will pull drier air south for Thursday and Friday. We will have lower (but not zero) chances for rain on Thursday and Friday, with the best chances for rain being along the International Border. The clouds on Wednesday will keep our high temperatures a little below average, but then the drier air will help the high temperatures creep a few degrees back above average for the end of the week.
For the weekend, not much has changed aloft, with the upper level ridge to our west sweeping in some drier air, but at the surface an east push will allow some low level moisture to return to the region, so we will see an uptick in thunderstorm chances this weekend, especially on Saturday. For the start of next week, all eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico as we wait and see where Hurricane Beryl goes. Right now all signs are pointing that we will have no impacts from the storm in our area. For we will continue to see a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with high temperatures running a few degrees above average.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight.
This activity is expected to continue and gradually diminish through the early morning hours. Showers will be mainly light in intensity with brief periods of moderate rainfall that might briefly reduce visibility to near MVFR categories at local TAF sites.
Ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft becoming lifting higher to above 15 kft by 14Z. Winds will mainly west northwest at 10 to 15kts becoming lighter after 12Z. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be more isolated Wednesday afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Fire weather concerns will continue to be low this week. Winds will stay well below critical levels Wednesday through the start of next week. Min RH's on Wednesday will be above 20% and min RH's on Thursday and Friday will range from 15 to 25% in the lowlands to 25 to 35% in area mountains. For the weekend, min RH's will be about the same in the lowlands for the weekend with 15 to 25% readings and in near the mountains of 25 to 35%. Ventilation rates will range from poor to fair the next couple of days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 81 98 80 103 / 70 50 60 40 Sierra Blanca 73 92 72 95 / 50 60 70 70 Las Cruces 75 93 75 102 / 70 40 50 20 Alamogordo 72 92 71 98 / 50 50 30 20 Cloudcroft 55 70 55 77 / 50 80 40 40 Truth or Consequences 71 88 71 99 / 60 40 20 10 Silver City 66 84 65 94 / 70 70 40 30 Deming 72 91 71 100 / 80 50 50 20 Lordsburg 70 90 70 99 / 60 50 50 30 West El Paso Metro 78 94 78 101 / 70 50 60 30 Dell City 76 97 74 100 / 40 50 40 40 Fort Hancock 77 98 76 102 / 70 60 70 70 Loma Linda 73 88 71 93 / 70 60 60 50 Fabens 78 97 77 102 / 70 50 70 50 Santa Teresa 76 92 75 99 / 70 50 60 30 White Sands HQ 77 92 77 100 / 70 60 50 30 Jornada Range 71 91 70 100 / 60 60 40 20 Hatch 72 92 71 102 / 60 50 40 20 Columbus 75 90 75 99 / 80 50 60 20 Orogrande 74 91 73 97 / 60 50 50 30 Mayhill 60 80 61 87 / 60 80 40 40 Mescalero 60 80 59 88 / 50 70 30 30 Timberon 60 80 59 84 / 50 70 40 40 Winston 60 80 58 91 / 80 60 20 10 Hillsboro 68 85 69 96 / 80 60 40 20 Spaceport 68 88 67 99 / 50 50 30 10 Lake Roberts 62 84 60 93 / 80 70 30 20 Hurley 66 87 64 96 / 60 60 30 20 Cliff 65 93 64 102 / 60 60 30 20 Mule Creek 68 88 67 96 / 60 50 30 20 Faywood 68 85 67 94 / 70 70 40 20 Animas 70 89 71 98 / 80 60 50 40 Hachita 70 88 71 98 / 80 60 60 30 Antelope Wells 69 87 69 96 / 80 70 70 60 Cloverdale 66 83 66 92 / 90 70 70 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Starting on Wednesday through the end of the week, we will see lower rain chances across with our high temperatures running just a few degrees above average. For the weekend, we will continue to see warm temperatures with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. More of the same for the start of next week, we will see daily afternoon and even thunderstorm chances with high temperatures running a few degrees above average.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
We have had several active thunderstorm days but the upper level ridge that has been pumping the moisture into the region is beginning to weaken and drier air will begin to push back into the area. For tonight we will see scattered evening thunderstorms.
Clouds and showers may linger into the morning hours, and the clouds may last into much of Wednesday. I have lowered some of our rain chances on Wednesday because of the lack of heating but also because the influence of the upper level ridge to our east will be replaced by an upper level ridge to our west. The clockwise circulation around the ridge is great when it is to our east, as it pulls moisture up out of Mexico and into our region. But that same clockwise rotation works against us when the upper level ridge is to our west as it pulls drier air down into the region from Colorado. Later in the monsoon season when more moisture is spread all around the region, it won't matter so much what the wind direction is. But right now as the western ridge strengthens it will pull drier air south for Thursday and Friday. We will have lower (but not zero) chances for rain on Thursday and Friday, with the best chances for rain being along the International Border. The clouds on Wednesday will keep our high temperatures a little below average, but then the drier air will help the high temperatures creep a few degrees back above average for the end of the week.
For the weekend, not much has changed aloft, with the upper level ridge to our west sweeping in some drier air, but at the surface an east push will allow some low level moisture to return to the region, so we will see an uptick in thunderstorm chances this weekend, especially on Saturday. For the start of next week, all eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico as we wait and see where Hurricane Beryl goes. Right now all signs are pointing that we will have no impacts from the storm in our area. For we will continue to see a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with high temperatures running a few degrees above average.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight.
This activity is expected to continue and gradually diminish through the early morning hours. Showers will be mainly light in intensity with brief periods of moderate rainfall that might briefly reduce visibility to near MVFR categories at local TAF sites.
Ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft becoming lifting higher to above 15 kft by 14Z. Winds will mainly west northwest at 10 to 15kts becoming lighter after 12Z. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be more isolated Wednesday afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Fire weather concerns will continue to be low this week. Winds will stay well below critical levels Wednesday through the start of next week. Min RH's on Wednesday will be above 20% and min RH's on Thursday and Friday will range from 15 to 25% in the lowlands to 25 to 35% in area mountains. For the weekend, min RH's will be about the same in the lowlands for the weekend with 15 to 25% readings and in near the mountains of 25 to 35%. Ventilation rates will range from poor to fair the next couple of days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 81 98 80 103 / 70 50 60 40 Sierra Blanca 73 92 72 95 / 50 60 70 70 Las Cruces 75 93 75 102 / 70 40 50 20 Alamogordo 72 92 71 98 / 50 50 30 20 Cloudcroft 55 70 55 77 / 50 80 40 40 Truth or Consequences 71 88 71 99 / 60 40 20 10 Silver City 66 84 65 94 / 70 70 40 30 Deming 72 91 71 100 / 80 50 50 20 Lordsburg 70 90 70 99 / 60 50 50 30 West El Paso Metro 78 94 78 101 / 70 50 60 30 Dell City 76 97 74 100 / 40 50 40 40 Fort Hancock 77 98 76 102 / 70 60 70 70 Loma Linda 73 88 71 93 / 70 60 60 50 Fabens 78 97 77 102 / 70 50 70 50 Santa Teresa 76 92 75 99 / 70 50 60 30 White Sands HQ 77 92 77 100 / 70 60 50 30 Jornada Range 71 91 70 100 / 60 60 40 20 Hatch 72 92 71 102 / 60 50 40 20 Columbus 75 90 75 99 / 80 50 60 20 Orogrande 74 91 73 97 / 60 50 50 30 Mayhill 60 80 61 87 / 60 80 40 40 Mescalero 60 80 59 88 / 50 70 30 30 Timberon 60 80 59 84 / 50 70 40 40 Winston 60 80 58 91 / 80 60 20 10 Hillsboro 68 85 69 96 / 80 60 40 20 Spaceport 68 88 67 99 / 50 50 30 10 Lake Roberts 62 84 60 93 / 80 70 30 20 Hurley 66 87 64 96 / 60 60 30 20 Cliff 65 93 64 102 / 60 60 30 20 Mule Creek 68 88 67 96 / 60 50 30 20 Faywood 68 85 67 94 / 70 70 40 20 Animas 70 89 71 98 / 80 60 50 40 Hachita 70 88 71 98 / 80 60 60 30 Antelope Wells 69 87 69 96 / 80 70 70 60 Cloverdale 66 83 66 92 / 90 70 70 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KELP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KELP
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KELP
Wind History graph: ELP
(wind in knots)
El Paso, TX,
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