NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early morning update: Lower level theta-e gradient is surging northward through southern/southeast Georgia, evidence by a disconnected line of showers and some thunderstorms advancing northward. Moisture gradient is expected to press into the Georgia counties over the next few hours and could bring some showers into the area. Going forecast already has that covered with just some cosmetic tweaks made.

Meanwhile, additional showers are rotating through the Midlands and eastern Georgia region along the eastern periphery of the closed circulation. Radar trends suggest some of that activity may spread into the western reaches of the forecast area within an hour or two. That has been added to the forecast.

Previous discussion...
Well defined circulation center is located over the western Carolinas this morning with some semblance of a surface trough stretching through the central Carolinas into central Georgia.
Second stationary surface boundary is draped across the northern Gulf and northern Florida region and into the Atlantic. Small cluster of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida coast during the overnight hours where there is some modest instability and low level convergence along the coast. Some remnant showers/sprinkles from that activity are skirting up through the far southern part of the forecast area into the Atlantic.

Today: Circulation center will be drifting eastward back toward the coast through the course of the day while deep layer southerly flow along the southern flank of the circulation allows higher dewpoint air to creep back into the region. With heating, forecast soundings and high-res guidance depict 500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE development this afternoon and possibly a bit higher along the coast. With subtle mid-level height falls/ increasing QG-forcing for ascent along the eastern flank of the circulation, scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms are a good bet, particularly during the afternoon hours. Pops have been increased with this forecast cycle. Otherwise, a warmer day is on tap with highs reaching the middle to upper 80s.

Tonight: Circulation center will be drifting northward to the mid-Atlantic region with the stronger forcing for ascent shifting offshore. With loss of heating, precip coverage will diminish, although given the larger scale forcing, shower activity might continue to percolate through the evening hours and possibly into the overnight. Lows tonight will deep back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Thursday: A vertically stacked low pressure will be located across the eastern Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning and be slowly exiting the coast. At the surface a remnant occluded front will be sagging south into the Tri-County with a pronounced dry conveyor belt located over coastal GA (as seen on RH fields). Due to this, have raised PoPs across the TriCounty (30 - 40 %), while also keeping GA dry as 500/ 300 mb RH is forecast to be only around 10%. Forecast soundings for SC do show some instability in place (MLCAPE around 300 J/kg), but a mid-level inversion does exist. As such, expect most of the coverage to be shower based, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80 across SC and upper 80s over GA.
This is thanks to a gradient of 1000/850 mb thicknesses with higher values over GA (ahead of the occlusion) and slightly lower values over SC. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday: The area of low pressure from Thursday will be just off the coast of New England Friday with SC and GA falling on the convergent side of the trough axis. This coupled with decreasing PWATs (down to around 1.45") will keep the day precipitation free with surface high pressure nudging in from the north. Expect high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s with low temperatures Friday night in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Global ensemble guidance is in very good agreement that a trough axis will remain centered along and south of the Canadian Maritimes this weekend with a slow translation of the wave axis east Monday into Tuesday. This will allow for dry conditions Saturday and Sunday with slightly above normal temperatures as surface high pressure remains in control.

Monday into Tuesday, the long wave trough axis will move east of the area with mid-level heights rapidly rising across the region. As this occurs, the humidity will return to the region as well as the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms (starting on Tuesday).

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overall VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Thursday. There could be some shallow ground fog around sunrise, but no restrictions are expected. Isolated to scattered showers will also be possible around KSAV around or just after sunrise, and continuing through a good portion of the day. The potential for showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, will then shift to around KCHS and KJZI for the afternoon.
However, confidence in timing and direct impacts is too low to include anything other than VCSH at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Thursday: Morning MVFR cigs possible with prevailing VFR in the afternoon. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible which could temporarily restrict cigs and vsbys. A weak boundary will cross the terminals Thursday turning the winds from the northeast.

Friday through Sunday: VFR. No precipitation is expected.

MARINE
Southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail across the coastal waters through tonight with seas running 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday: Another round of morning showers and thunderstorms are possible with a weak boundary crossing the waters Thursday. Winds will turn from the northeast 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Friday: Northeast winds will slowly start to increase in speed 10 to 15 kt as surface high pressure builds in from the north. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible, or below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Saturday and Sunday: Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts 15 to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A Small Craft Advisory might be required as the pressure gradient tightens from building high pressure.

Rip Currents: The combination of a lingering swell around 2 ft at 9 seconds and high astronomical tides from the full moon will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents for all of our beaches today.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Positive tidal anomalies along with high astronomical tides from the full moon will lead to elevated tides for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will probably be needed for both the morning and evening high tides through Friday for both Charleston Harbor and Fort Pulaski.

Saturday and Sunday, the astronomical high tides start to lower but the morning high tides will likely be elevated enough to still require Coastal Flood Advisories (especially for Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties). More uncertainty exists for Fort Pulaski.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ049- 050.
MARINE...None.