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FXUS64 KEPZ 081141 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 441 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 309 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

Warm and breezy to windy conditions can be expected for Friday. A potent cold front will move in late Friday into Saturday morning, cooling temperatures to below normal for the weekend with cold overnight temperatures. Quiet weather returns next week, lasting through midweek before the next system potentially comes into play.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

For Friday, the next upper level system is slated to move across the Four Corners region and will bring with it breezy to windy conditions. By the late morning and afternoon timeframe on Friday, pressure gradient aloft will continue to strengthen and tighten with a modest 500mb jet streak nosing in over Northern New Mexico. In response to increasing cyclonic curvature and vorticity advection, deep surface troughing over Texas/Oklahoma will strengthen. However, while surface cyclogenesis takes shape over the Central Plains, cold air and surface high pressure will quickly infringe southward over the Front Range/High Plains and really impede/cut off the pressure gradient from strengthening over New Mexico. Hence the downtick in winds over the past few days. Breezy to windy conditions can still be expected on Friday. Confidence still remains that the strongest winds will be over the high terrain of the Black Range and Sacramento Mtns, where Wind Advisories are in effect. NBM probabilities for winds hitting Advisory thresholds are greater than 70% for these areas.

By this weekend, the upper level system and it's associated Pacific front will move east with cooler (back to near or slightly below average) temperatures in it's wake. Northwest flow aloft regime will dominate the pattern this weekend, especially on Saturday. Breezy and brisk winds will continue as a result (especially during the morning hours on Saturday), when wind chills values will be in the 20s for most lowlands areas. The combination of high temperatures in the low to middle 50s and breezy winds will make it down right brisk out there. By the Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe, the surface pressure gradient on the backside of the departing side- door/Pacific front should relax, decreasing winds back to light and variable. This in combo with mostly clear skies should allow for decent radiational cooling. Temperatures during the morning hours on Sunday will struggle to get out of the 20s, with a forecast low of 27-28 degrees!

Heading into the first half of next week, a more quiet weather pattern will resume with west-northwest to quasi-zonal flow setting up over the region. Temperatures will rebound back to around the seasonal average on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking ahead at the end of next work week and next weekend, GEFS/ECMWF ensembles and their respected deterministic runs are hinting at a piece of energy breaking off the main flow aloft and dropping south across the Great Basin, before infringing upon the Desert Southwest. This next player may bring some unsettled weather to the area, with the possibility of mountain snow and lowland rain showers at play.
Just something watch in the extended period. However, don't hold your breath on this happening as trends may move this disturbance north and as an open wave
We shall see
so stay tuned.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC, becoming FEW200-250 during the late morning through evening timeframe. Winds will be gusty, generally out of the west at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots. Winds at KELP should be below AWW criteria through most of the period. However, there will likely be a few instances where AWW criteria will be met.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

Overall, no significant changes from previous forecast packages.
The next upper level system is slated to move across Central New Mexico on Friday. This will bump up fire weather conditions to ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL(for lowlands and the eastern Sacramento Mtn foothills) Friday afternoon. Diving into it a little more, increasing zonal/west-southwesterly flow and cyclonic curvature, along with a tightening/strengthening surface pressure gradient will lead to an increase in winds. West winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will be likely, especially over the high terrain. Min RHs in the mid to upper teens across the lowlands will flirt with Red Flag conditions, whereas high elevation mountain areas will remain in the middle to upper 20s. With Severe to Extreme drought across all fire weather zones, the dormant and cured fine fuels will be more receptive over the desert lowlands and the foothills surrounding the Gila and Sacs. With recent precipitation and recent light snowpack over the highest terrain within the timber/Ponderosa forests, soil moisture, near seasonal ERC values, and high moisture values for large class fuels should limit and mitigate the threat for large fires.

Cool and quiet weather conditions return for the weekend as the region remains under a northwesterly flow regime. Min RH values will remain near critical thresholds with breezy winds. Smoke ventilation rates on Saturday will be Good to Very Good east of the Divide and Poor to Fair, decreasing to Poor to Fair areawide on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 72 39 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 35 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 33 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 32 50 19 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 19 30 10 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 29 48 21 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 57 29 49 21 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 31 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 29 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 38 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 34 56 19 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 36 59 23 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 34 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 37 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 68 33 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 69 37 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 30 50 19 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 31 52 18 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 69 35 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 32 49 20 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 25 40 15 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 55 21 39 13 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 54 24 42 13 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 62 22 44 13 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 27 49 18 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 29 48 18 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 23 46 15 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 63 28 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 27 55 20 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 27 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 62 30 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 67 30 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 67 31 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 34 58 23 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 34 56 26 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ415-416-426.

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