Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wellton Hills, AZ

DISCUSSION
Ridging is currently in place over the West Coast with a strong longwave trough over the eastern two thirds of CONUS. This pattern will remain mostly unchanged through the middle of the week, which will lead to high temperatures 4-8 degrees above normal through at least Thursday for southeast Arizona.

Late in the work week into next weekend models show the pattern finally changing with a closed low moving onshore from the Pacific. Both the deterministic GFS and EURO show this low, although they differ greatly in its evolution. The EURO is faster bringing it through Friday and Saturday with another shortwave moving in from the north. The GFS is much slower, keeping the low closed over the Pacific this weekend then moving it onshore early next week. Right now the GFS is an outlier with GEFS members moving the low through this weekend. Looking at spaghetti plots only one or two members keep the low over the Pacific into early next week. Given this the NBM introduces valley rain and mountain snow Friday morning continuing into Saturday. During this timeframe PoPs are generally 25-50 percent, dropping below 10 percent Sunday and Monday. Still a decent amount of run to run differences in QPF and snow amounts, but right now expected valley rain totals up to 0.25" will be possible and 0.5"+ of liquid in the mountains. Snow levels are around 7000-7500 feet with snow totals Friday-Saturday generally 2"-6" in the Sky Islands.
Temperatures are also expected to cool to normal or a few degrees below normal Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind less than 10 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon and early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High pressure aloft will result in above normal high temperatures and dry conditions through the middle of the week. 20- foot winds will be less than 15 mph and terrain driven. Minimum RHs will be in the 12-20 percent at all elevations today, with an increase of 3-8 percent across the eastern half of southeast Arizona Tuesday through Thursday. A low pressure system moving into southeast Arizona from the eastern Pacific will result in a chance of valley rain and mountain snow across southeast Arizona Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures and increasing minimum RHs.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.