Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wellton Hills, AZ

DISCUSSION
Warm, dry and occasionally breezy conditions will be the mainstay across Southeast Arizona over the next week. This weather makes me think of an old, lazy dog lying on the porch, resistant to activity except lifting its head from time-to-time to acknowledge a bird flying-by. The overall pattern this morning is defined by a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest into Texas, with a dry trough of low pressure moving into the West Coast. The southern portion of the trough will close off across central California today, then slowly drift east across the Great Basin through Sunday. This approaching feature will tighten pressure gradients across Southeast Arizona the next few days, resulting in some afternoon breeziness. Winds will generally be southwest 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to 30-35 mph due to strong surface heating. Although wind speeds should stay below critical fire weather thresholds today, brief near critical thresholds will be possible during the afternoon...
especially those areas exposed to a southwest wind.

Split-flow in the Eastern Pacific the first half of next week will allow for another dry upper-low to develop off the coast of Southern California and Northern Baja by Wednesday, with little movement into next weekend. This feature will allow for a shortwave ridge axis to develop across the Southern Rockies/New Mexico the second half of next week. A ridge in this location will result in a south to southeast mid-level flow tapping into moisture across SW Texas and NE Mexico. The numerical models have backed off from their previous runs on the western extent of this mid-level moisture nudging into the eastern portions of the CWA
However, depending on the location of the upper low near SRN CA, it may draw the moisture into the far eastern portions of our neck of the woods late next week. The combination of this moisture and the dry sub-cloud layer may result in dry elevated thunderstorms with the potential for gusty and erratic outflows near the evaporating downdrafts, especially Friday.

Otherwise, models have been consistent over the past few days with regards to a weak tropical system developing along the southern coast of Mexico and moving NW near the the tip of the Baja next weekend. I am not concerned with this feature, but there may be an increase in moisture up the Gulf of California/Sonora Mexico which could potentially get wrapped up into the upper-low near SRN California and impact Southeast Arizona with a chance of storms around the first few days of June. At this point, a lot of things would have to work out. So, I guess we are just like that old, lazy dog...lifting its head in curiosity to look at that strange looking bird hopping around in the yard.

AVIATION
Valid through 24/12Z. SCT-BKN high clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the valid period. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts through 23/17Z, then SWLY/WLY 12-18 kts with gusts up to 30 kts during the afternoon and early evening hours...becoming light and terrain driven less than 10 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Hot, dry and breezy today across Southeast Arizona. Expect gusty southwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph this afternoon with minimum RH values around 5 percent.
Although wind speeds should stay below critical fire weather thresholds, brief near critical thresholds will be possible during the afternoon in those areas exposed to a southwest wind.
Breezy conditions will persist into the weekend. Single digit min RH values at all elevations will persist over the next week, with poor overnight recoveries.

Although confidence is low at this time, there is the potential for some mid-level moisture to move into far eastern areas (along the Arizona and New mexico state line) by the end of next week.
This may lead to some afternoon buildups and/or isolated dry lightning strikes Thursday and Friday next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.