NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today: We start the day with extensive high level cloudiness streaming overhead from Hurricane Francine, which makes landfall later today in Louisiana. Meanwhile, our region remains under the control of high pressure from New England which stretches into the Southeast, while a weakening ridge is found aloft.

Most of the area will get by with another day free from rain, with the exception of places south of I-16, where isolated to scattered showers will take place. This occurs in the region where we find the best low level moisture convergence from off the ocean, and where the best MLCAPE of maybe 500-750 J/kg is found.

Given the placement of the upper jet stream, considerable high level clouds will dominate, along with scattered to perhaps broken cumulus/stratocumulus developing within the easterly low level flow. Simulated satellite, cross-sections, and soundings point toward only limited insolation, and this will play a huge part in actual max temperatures. Trended toward the lower side of guidance, which still might be too warm. In addition, gusty east-northeast winds from off the Atlantic within a fairly tight gradient and sufficient mixing will produce speeds as high as 20-25 mph over the coastal corridor.

Tonight: Francine looks to move through Louisiana and into Mississippi, with the local vicinity still under the influence of high pressure centered off New England. Ridging aloft gives way to more of a cyclonic flow to the west during the overnight period. But large scale subsidence persists across a large part of the area, with the best moisture still confined over far southern areas and southward. We currently have no more than isolated to scattered showers south of I-16, where we find subtle isentropic ascent in tandem with the best low level moisture convergence. Extensive cloud cover and winds never fully decoupling will yield a warmer night than the past couple of nights, with lows in the mid and upper 60s inland, lower and middle 70s closer to the ocean, where gusty east-northeast winds will persist.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge south into the region Thursday into Friday. Concurrently, Francine will be slowing and weakening while moving up the Mississippi River Valley. It appears that the ridge will hold firm, but a front near the Gulf coast could make northward progress but will likely stall south of the local area. Deep tropical moisture will steadily overspread the region.
Scattered to numerous showers, and possibly a couple thunderstorms, are expected over southeast Georgia on Thursday, with lesser coverage further north where drier air will hold the longest. Friday should see higher coverage on the whole and PoPs peak in the 60-70% range. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

High pressure will persist inland on Saturday, while a coastal trough or potentially an area of low pressure develops well offshore. Aloft, vort energy associated with the remnants of Francine will pass across the region. Scattered to numerous showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are forecast. High temperatures generally around 80 or in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will continue to extend south into the region early next week. Models indicate that an area of low pressure could be located well offshore along a stalled front. The evolution of this feature is still uncertain, so there is lower confidence in the forecast at this juncture, but the low could take a track back towards the Southeast coast later in the period. Maintained chance PoPs each day, generally in the 30-40% range.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 12/12Z. Gusty E and ENE winds will peak at 18-22 kt at all sites by 16Z, with gusts diminishing by sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible in showers and potentially a few thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.

MARINE
Today: High pressure to the north band a stationary front to the south will yield a modest pressure gradient across the local waters, leading to Small Craft Advisories all marine zones outside of Charleston Harbor. Easterly winds will be as strong as 15-20 kt with gusts at least as high as near 25 kt to occur.
This favorable onshore fetch will produce seas reaching up to 6 feet on the waters out 20 nm from the South Santee River to the Altamaha Sound, and up to 7 feet further out. Charleston harbor will experience gusts near 20 kt at times, but not enough for any advisory.

Tonight: Once again the pressure gradient remains rather pinched, and Small Craft Advisories will continue for all waters except the Charleston Harbor. Winds and seas will be very similar to what they were during the daylight hours.

Thursday through Monday: A ridge of high pressure inland will drive persistent northeast to east flow over the coastal waters through much of the period. Speeds of 15-20 knots and seas of 6 feet on Thursday will settle a bit late week, allowing the ongoing Small Craft Advisories to come down. However, it will likely be fairly short-lived as conditions could again increase over the weekend into early next week as a coastal trough or potentially an area of low pressure develops offshore. Still uncertainty on the evolution of this feature, so forecast is lower confidence late in the period.

Rip Currents: Moderate to strong onshore winds, small swells, plus elevated tides will lead to an enhanced risk of rip currents all beaches today. Local tabulations and the Rip Current MOS point toward a Moderate Risk on the South Carolina beaches, with a High Risk along the Georgia beaches. In addition, there will likely be a strong northeast to southwest parallel current due to the winds.

Gusty NE winds along with swell of 3-4 feet every 8 seconds favors a Moderate Risk for rip currents for South Carolina beaches and a High Risk for Georgia beaches on Thursday. An elevated risk for rip currents will persist into the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent and strong onshore winds will lead to elevated tidal departures this week. Tide levels could reach minor flooding thresholds along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts, beginning as early as Thursday, with the afternoon high tide cycle.
The threat for coastal flooding will increase next week as we approach the full moon and perigee.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ352.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.