Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yellow Bluff, AL

UPDATE
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Forecast overall remains on track. Tropical Storm Bertha has begun to weaken this morning due to increasingly northerly shear. However, we are still seeing gusts of 40-50 mph occur along the coast, especially in the passing bands of light to moderate showers. The wind gusts should gradually lessen as we go through the day and the center of Bertha moves west of our area. As the day progresses, we will coordinate with NHC on the appropriate time to cancel the Tropical Storm Warning. We are still likely to see a very breezy day along the coast through this afternoon with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph given the persistent onshore flow.

Area tide gages in Pensacola Bay, Mobile Bay, and MS Sound have reached 2 to 2.5 ft MHHW, which indicates there are likely areas of minor coastal flooding. This will persist over the next couple of hours through the high tide cycle. We are still likely to see another round of minor coastal flooding near high tide Thursday morning, especially in Mobile Bay with a persistent southerly flow continuing.

The High Surf Warning continues. Wave heights peaked around 14 ft at Buoy 42012 south of Orange Beach. Surf heights of 8-12 ft at the beaches will persist through early this evening before beginning to subside.

Slightly adjusted rain chances and temperatures today to match trends and the latest hi-res guidance. Heat indices will climb to the 100-107 degree range today, likely highest over interior SW AL and SE MS. Scattered to numerous showers will develop through the course of the day. A few thunderstorms are possible with peak heating. HRRR does show 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE this afternoon, but a warm layer aloft may preclude thunderstorm development. 34/JFB

DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The main story through the period is Tropical Storm Bertha with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is located about 80 miles south of Mobile. It is currently moving west at 6 mph parallel to the Gulf Coast with the center staying in our offshore waters.
Current wave heights are 9.2 feet south of Orange Beach (Buoy 42012).

THROUGH THURSDAY

Heat index values are just below the Heat Advisory threshold, but still very warm peaking at 107. The eastern half of our area will have more clouds and precipitation allowing for slightly lower heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all land zones on the immediate coast and nearshore/offshore waters of Alabama and northwest Florida. Our main impacts with Bertha are gusty winds, increasing wave heights, and an increased rip current risk.

Inundation is possible with the strong onshore flow combined with high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 am Thursday for all area coastal areas and bays. Minor flooding of 1-3 feet above normally dry ground is expected especially for vulnerable low lying areas and typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and Fort Pickens.

Widespread flooding issues are not expected with this tropical system with storm totals of 1-2" with localized areas receiving up to 4". The highest coverage of precipitation will be just along the immediate coast and mainly offshore. Our moisture content remains elevated with PWATs of 2.3-2.4" which introduces enhanced rain rates, but nothing more than very localized flooding is expected for the remainder of the event.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK

After Bertha departs to the west, we are on the eastern periphery of a building upper ridge under generally northerly flow aloft through the end of the week and into the weekend. This brings rain chances to a more normal summertime pattern with daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze and resultant outflow boundaries. We switch into northwest flow aloft this weekend into the beginning of next week between the ridge to the west and the upper trough digging into the eastern US.
This could bring organized convection down into our area, so this is something to watch through the weekend. Heat headlines could also be possible the beginning of next week as temperatures are projected to increase into the mid to upper 90s depending on the strength of the ridge.

BEACH FORECAST

Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions are expected through mid week. The rip current risk HIGH for our Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and will last through Thursday before dropping to MODERATE Friday through Saturday. Guidance shows surf peaking through Wednesday morning before slowly beginning to taper off. A High Surf Warning is in effect for surf heights up to 8-12 feet through 6 am Thursday for all Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

SS/97

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the period near the coast, with mostly VFR conditions inland. Rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Bertha may briefly lower visibilities to MVFR or lower. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon. Northeast winds across western areas and southeast winds across eastern areas will gradually shift to southeasterly or southerly through the day as Bertha moves west. Expect wind speeds of 15-25 knots with gusts to around 30-35 knots near the coast, and generally 10-15 knots inland. Winds should gradually wane through the overnight, but remaining over 10 knots near the coast. JGC/98

MARINE
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha is located approximately 80 miles south of Mobile with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moving west at 6 mph. Waves with this system peak around 10 to 15 feet through Wednesday evening before subsiding. Tropical storm force winds are impacting the Gulf waters and will decrease to moderate southerly winds by Thursday morning. After the system departs, light southwesterly to westerly winds begin Thursday night and continue through the weekend. SS/97

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 89 77 90 76 / 60 40 50 10 Pensacola 88 80 90 78 / 70 40 30 0 Destin 87 81 89 79 / 70 20 20 0 Evergreen 91 74 91 73 / 50 20 30 0 Waynesboro 93 76 91 73 / 40 20 50 20 Camden 91 75 89 74 / 50 10 40 20 Crestview 89 76 91 73 / 70 20 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204- 206.

Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.