Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pachuta, MS

FXUS64 KJAN 112340 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 640 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low has moved little today, and so there continues to be a concern for localized heavy rainfall as deep layer cyclonic flow and strong moisture convergence combine with moist (precipitable water up to 1.5 inches) and unstable air (MUCAPE up to 2000 j/kg) to produce considerable convective rainfall coverage over north central into eastern MS. A few multicell segments may train over this area with localized rainfall rates of 2-3 inches in a few hours. Given the recent heavy rainfall, and per WPC excessive rainfall outlook, will maintain a limited threat for localized flash flooding in the graphics. Otherwise, the marginal risk for a few briefly severe storms continues over mainly the northeast half of the forecast area through this evening. /EC/

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low will finally begin to make a move northeast, but this will be a slow process, so a wet pattern will persist through early this week with diurnally enhanced rain chances only slowly diminishing through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday: In the wake, an upper ridge and associated 850 thermal ridge will build over the area and yield near record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Drier air will stave off rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, but recent rainfall and moist ground conditions will likely result in more humid conditions. While this does act as a cap on temperature, it should raise heat stress. Not expecting to reach heat advisory criteria, but can't rule out a 105 heat index in isolated spots.
Heat looks to peak Friday with the warmest temperatures of the season thus far expected.

Friday night through the next weekend: A strong polar stream shortwave trough crossing the northern plains to upper midwest region will help to suppress the ridge some as we finish up the work week and go into next weekend. While much of the upper forcing will be deflected to the northwest thanks to a still dominant ridge, rain chances will return across the north Friday.
With further weakening of the ridge into the weekend, rain chances will steadily increase across the area. This weather pattern could catch some off guard in terms of storm and heavy rainfall potential as mid/upper level flow will be seasonably strong between the trough and ridge, and the hot warm sector will likely support high levels of instability. We'll be monitoring this time window for storm threats as we go through the next few days.
/SAS/EC/
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