Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 9:32 PM   Moonset 7:00 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 251155 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 655 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 445 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today and Tonight:32

Patchy fog will be possible across southern parts of the CWA during the early morning hours; however, any fog that develops is expected to dissipate after sunrise. A stalled cold front is expected to linger over northern portions of the area throughout the day, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms possibilities to areas along and north of HWY 82 and northeast MS. Severe weather is not anticipated with this disturbance. Elsewhere, quiet conditions are expected for areas along and south of I-20. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Rain chances will begin to diminish for northern areas during the evening hours as the stalled frontal boundary transition into a warm front and lift northward out of the CWA Skies are expected to be partly cloud and overnight low temperatures are expected to be range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. /SW/

Friday through Wednesday: A warm and rather moist weather pattern will persist through the long range forecast as a ridge maintains it's strong presence over the eastern third of the CONUS. The ridge will deflect most shortwave trough energy to the northwest of the forecast area with rain chances limited for us, but at least one stronger shortwave trough should get close enough to initiate a significant convective system over the Delta region by late Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of a surface cold front. Beyond this point, there is divergence in the global model guidance on how to handle the MCS activity, so confidence is low concerning QPF placement.

Rainfall amounts could be quite heavy in any case as deep layer moisture is expected to circulate around the ridge and move along a huge fetch of warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, greater deep layer shear and instability should remain mostly west of the forecast area, and likely unsupportive of more than a low-end strong to severe storm threat early next week in our area. As we go into the middle of next week, a stronger ridge should build more squarely over Mississippi Valley region, and this would bring warmer conditions with highs potentially approaching 90 F just beyond this long range period. /EC/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period for the most part. Early morning fog will dissipate shortly with boundary layer mixing, and urface wind will be mostly light from the southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 83 62 85 68 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 83 60 86 65 / 20 10 0 0 Vicksburg 84 63 85 68 / 10 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 86 60 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 84 63 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 81 65 82 69 / 30 10 10 20 Greenwood 80 63 84 68 / 30 10 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

Lower Hall Landing
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Thu -- 02:30 AM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:52 PM CDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Thu -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:36 PM CDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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