Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dutch Island, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today: Little change in the large scale pattern from the past few days. The area will remain between a deep layer, broad trough to the west over the middle MS and TN valleys and deep layer ridging to the southeast over the Atlantic. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level disturbance associated with dying convection over northern GA, and another further west over southern TN and northern AL. The remnants of these disturbances should move just north of the region today, but could help to provide a little extra upper level lift. This lift, ample deep layer moisture, and mean CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg will again result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the afternoon. Hi-res models again indicating that the highest convective coverage will generally occur over the eastern 1/3 of the area, within the low level confluence area between southwest flow and more south-southwest flow near the coast. Given relatively low convective temperatures in the upper 80s, convection may again start a little earlier than climatology would predict. Also, with PWs again 2+ inches, and the confluent low level flow over the eastern portion of the area, there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding. High temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Tonight: Convection is expected to decrease during the evening.
Mostly cloudy skies in the evening, becoming partly cloudy late. Lows in the lower 70s, except mid 70s close to the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Chances for daily showers and thunderstorms continue into the week as a surface high pressure over the Atlantic remains off to our east, and the region remains sandwiched between an upper level high off to our south-southeast and broad troughing across the Ohio River Valley. The lack of strong forcing and weak winds aloft will keep chances for severe weather on the low side (<5%), while the presence of 1-2 kJ of MUCAPE is responsible for the non-zero chances. Highest probabilities and spatial coverage for showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours when instability is highest, and decreasing into the evening and overnight hours as instability wanes. With precipitable water remaining above 1.75", locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out.

As for temperatures, expect them to slowly increase into the middle of the week given the persistent pattern underneath the aforementioned upper level high. NAEFs and ECMWF ensemble situational awareness tables (ESATs) continue to show the region remaining near/above the 90th percentile of climatology with respect to geopotential heights from 850mb up to 200 mb, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s on each day, while those near the coast remain in the mid/upper 80s. Heat index values in the mid 90s to lower 100s are also expected, possibly as high as mid to upper 100s if higher dewpoints in the upper 70s are realized. Best chances appear to be on Wednesday as that is when highest temperatures are possible due to the ridge building aloft.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The aforementioned pattern continues while the upper level ridge begins to slowly build/shift westward as a weak trough moves into the northeast Thursday into Friday. Temperatures remain largely in the lower to mid 90s, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing.

Behind the exiting upper level trough, deterministic and ensemble models show a ridge building aloft as it moves westwards towards the east coast. At the surface, some guidance continues to show a weak front and low pressure move down from the Ohio River Valley, though the majority of guidance does not include that feature...however, this mismatch is leading to NBM temperatures coming in a touch cooler than expected. Would not be surprised to see later runs of the NBM bring temperatures closer to the mid to upper 90s over the weekend, closer to what the 90th percentile is showing.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Today and Tonight: There is a low probability fog brief IFR CIGS through about 10Z this morning, otherwise expect VFR conditions for all TAF sites through this morning. Once again, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 15-22Z could cause brief flight restrictions, with MVFR CIGS. Any convection should dissipate after sunset, with return to VFR conditions after 00Z Mon.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: No highlights are expected for this period.
The waters will remain between deep layer ridging to the southeast and a broad trough well to the west. This will continue southwest winds of 10-15 knots. Winds could gust up to near 20 knots near the mouth of Charleston Harbor this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, highest beyond 10 nm offshore.There will also continue to be a longer period swell from the southeast.

Monday through Friday: Typical summertime conditions will prevail over the waters with high pressure centered offshore of the Southeast States. A broad, southerly wind regime can be expected with winds generally averaging 15 kt or less, except a bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will remain 4 ft or less through the period.

Rip Currents: An easterly swell surge will arrive along the Charleston County beaches today and all remaining beaches for Monday. This coupled with locally breezy conditions near the afternoon sea breeze will support a moderate rip current risk for all beaches today and Monday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.