Wednesday, November13, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dutch Island, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:26PM Wednesday November 13, 2019 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 313 Am Est Wed Nov 13 2019
.gale warning in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ300 313 Am Est Wed Nov 13 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail across the region through tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region Thursday night into Saturday before a coastal storm potentially affects the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dutch Island, GA
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location: 31.98, -81.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 130922
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
422 am est Wed nov 13 2019

Winter-like temperatures today for southeast south carolina and
southeast georgia...

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the region through tonight. A
low pressure system will impact the region Thursday night into
Saturday before a coastal storm potentially affects the area
early next week.

Near term through today
Through sunrise: the freezing line is slowly working south early
this morning under a strong cold air advection regime. 13 09z
observations showing freezing temperatures were occurring
roughly along north of a metter-eden-beaufort-folly beach line.

Temperatures are on track to bottom out in the upper 20s to
around freezing for many areas with locations east of the
intracoastal waterway in georgia likely remaining just above
freezing. A freeze warning remains in force for all zones
through 10 am est. The record lows for all 3 climate sites could
fall.

Stiff north winds of 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph are producing
brisk conditions with wind chills expected to dip into the
upper teens to lower 20s for the morning commute. It appears
values will remain just above wind chill advisory criteria (10f
inland, 15f coastal and far southern zones), although it could
get close in portions of charleston and tidal berkeley counties
just before daybreak. A special weather statement will be issued
to address these cold, early season wind chills.

Today: a modified, continental polar airmass will become
further entrenched across the region today as cold air
advection persists with the passage of a potent mid-level trough
off the u.S. East coast. H8 temperatures will bottom out in the
1-6c range later this morning before very slowly rising this
afternoon with the initiation of weak warm air advection.

Despite full insolation, highs will struggle to warm through the
day with such cold temperatures occurring aloft and north low-
level winds holding firm. Highs look to warm into the upper 40s
to lower 50s for most areas by mid-afternoon with mid 40s
occurring in the allendale-moncks corner corridor. The record
low maximums for all three climate sites will be challenged.

Although winds will gradually diminish through the day, speeds
look to remain high enough to keep wind chills into the lower-
mid 40s except upper 40s across the far southern zones. The
extensive stratocumulus field over the warmer atlantic will
largely remain offshore, its far western fringe may approach
sapelo island by late afternoon and winds veer more to the
northeast.

Lake winds: winds remain elevated across lake moultrie early
this morning within a strong cold air advection pattern. Speeds
at pinopolis have been solidly in the 20-25 kt range for much of
the night and this will continue through daybreak before slowly
diminishing. A lake wind advisory will remain posted for the
lake through 1 pm est.

Short term tonight through Saturday
Tonight: a wedge of high pressure is forecast to strengthen
across the interior tonight as a weak coastal begins to sharpen
off the south carolina and georgia coasts. Isentropic
assent warm air advection will strengthen atop the inland wedge
overnight as the 925-700 hpa begins to veer in response to the
kicking out of the upper-level cyclone currently spinning over
northern mexico. The cold dry airmass coupled with relatively
high model condensation pressure deficits suggest it will be
hard for any measurable rainfall to occur prior to daybreak
Thursday. Some of the wetter cams such as the nssl-wrf and arw
are likely overdeveloping the extensive stratocumulus field over
the warmer atlantic; typical in these types of synoptic
patterns. Suspect there will likely be some sort of concentrated
shower activity approaching the lower south carolina coast after
5-6 am, but most should remain offshore through sunrise. Dry
conditions will be maintained tonight except for mid-upper
charleston county where 20% pops will be introduced just before
sunrise. Lows will range from the lower 30s inland to the lower-
mid 40s along the beaches. No p-type issues are expected with
shower activity expected to remain offshore and pronounced warm
air advection noted just off the surface.

The need for frost freeze headlines will be assessed later
today once morning co-op and mesonet observations are received.

Headlines may not be needed if enough of the forecast area
observes a freeze this morning.

Thursday: high pressure will weaken over land early as a coastal
trough forms along the southeast coast. Temps should start off
chilly, especially inland, but will gradually warm into the low mid
50s inland to upper 50s around 60 near the coast during the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, especially
east of the i-95 corridor late in the day when forcing begins to
increase with sfc low pressure developing south southwest of the
area. Models have been persistent in showing low-lvl moisture and
strong isentropic lift increasing during overnight hours, resulting
in scattered to numerous showers spreading across the area from
southwest to northeast. Greatest precip coverage should occur across
southern areas in southeast georgia after midnight, where numerous
to widespread showers are expected closer to low pressure
developing strengthening over northern florida and or just offshore,
then should peak closer to coastal locations through daybreak. Low
temps will be noticeably warmer than the previous night, ranging in
the low mid 40s inland to low mid 50s along the coast.

Friday: deep moisture will likely remain across the area early,
highest near the coast while sfc low pressure deepens offshore.

Numerous to widespread showers will likely be ongoing into late
morning hours, greatest coverage along the coast. The bulk of precip
should then shift offshore during afternoon into early evening hours
as the main low pressure center shifts to the north northeast and
away from the region. However, scattered showers will be possible
through overnight hours as a trailing mid upper lvl low begins to
shift over the area late. Another issue could be breezy northerly
winds that develop near the coast overnight due an enhanced pressure
gradient between the departing low and high pressure building in
from the north. However, strongest winds should remain over coastal
waters. High temps should peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
warmest at the coast. Low temps should dip into the low mid 40s
inland to upper 40s around 50 at the coast.

Saturday: a mid upper lvl low will shift over the area early before
departing off the southeast coast late. At the sfc, high pressure
will prevail with a slightly cooler northerly wind in place
throughout the day. The pattern suggests scattered showers over much
of the area into afternoon hours before activity begins to diminish
from west to east as the mid upper low begins to shift offshore.

High temps will remain cooler, peaking only in the lower 50s across
the tri-county area to mid upper 50s for areas south (warmest in
southeast georgia).

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
High pressure should prevail across the area Sunday, favoring mainly
dry conditions. Forecast uncertainty is much greater early next week
with a large spread in model solutions in regards to the development
and track of another low pressure system along and or off the
southeast coast. However, the general consensus is that a period of
weak ridging will occur across the area Sunday through Monday,
resulting in slightly warmer temps ahead of a large mid upper lvl
trough of low pressure approaching the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temps should be a few degrees warmer during mid week (mid 60s) with
isolated to potentially scattered showers developing across the
area. Overnight lows should dip into the mid 30s lower 40s Saturday
night, then will be slightly warmer next week, low mid 40s inland to
upper 40s around 50 at the coast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr. Risk for MVFR CIGS will increase after 00z at both ksav
and kchs. Gusty winds will persist through late morning before
diminishing.

Extended aviation outlook: chances of flight restrictions will
increase at both chs and sav terminals Thursday due to showers
associated with a coastal trough offshore, then the arrival of a
low pressure system Thursday night. At least MVFR CIGS vsbys
are likely at both terminals late Thursday night into late
Friday morning due to showers and low clouds associated with the
passing low just offshore. Conditions should then improve to
vfr Saturday, especially later in the day.VFR conditions are
likely at both terminals Sunday.

Marine
Today: winds have likely peaked early this morning with frequent
gusts to gales noted earlier this morning. Gale warnings will
remain posted through late morning. After that, winds will
weaken enough to downgrade the warnings to small craft
advisories. Speeds should average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
by afternoon. Seas of 5-8 ft nearshore, 8-11 ft offshore this
morning will subside to 4-6 ft nearshore, 7-9 ft offshore this
afternoon.

Tonight: winds will remain elevated as the pressure gradient
begins to pinch between inland high pressure and a weak coastal
trough offshore. Northeast winds will average 15-20 kt with
gusts 25 kt, but could be locally higher where the gradient
pinches the most. Seas will average 4-6 ft nearshore and 5-7 ft
offshore.

Thursday through Sunday: small craft advisory level conditions could
linger across offshore georgia waters through Thursday morning,
mainly due to elevated seas. Northerly winds should then remain at
or below 10-15 kt with seas no higher than 3-5 ft as a coastal
trough takes form and persists into early Thursday night. A fairly
strong area of low pressure should then arrive early Friday, causing
winds seas to deteriorate through much of the weekend. A strong
pressure gradient between low pressure over coastal waters and high
pressure building from the north over land will likely support small
craft advisories across most waters Friday afternoon into early
Sunday. A portion of the waters could even see gale force wind gusts
on Saturday when the pressure gradient and cold air advection is
strongest. Conditions should then improve across all waters through
the day on Sunday, but lingering 5-7 ft seas could support small
craft advisories for offshore georgia waters into Sunday night.

Tides coastal flooding
Positive tidal departures continue to slowly increase this
morning under stiff north winds. Tide levels are expected to
peak around 7.8 ft mllw in charleston harbor and 9.7 ft mllw at
fort pulaski. There are some guidance members suggesting levels
could breach warning thresholds at both gauges (8.0 ft mllw for
charleston harbor and 10.0 ft mllw at fort pulaski), but this
would be atypical in a north wind regime. Prefer to issue a
high-end coastal flood advisory for all coastal zones to
account for this morning's high tide, but trends will be
carefully monitored in case a last minute upgrade to a coastal
flood warning is needed. Expect some roads to be closed in
downtown charleston during the morning commute at these levels.

Highway 80 near tybee island should remain open due to recent
road improvements, although water could cover some portions of
the road in the lowest areas.

Tide levels will remain higher than normal through at least Saturday
due to strong north northeast winds persisting along low pressure
tracking near the southeast coast. Coastal flood advisories could be
needed during the morning high tides mid to late week along the
entire coast. Deepening low pressure offshore this weekend could
also support moderate levels of coastal flooding, especially if
rains are ongoing during the time of high tide.

Climate
Record lows for 13 november:
kchs 29 1941
kcxm 34 1968
ksav 29 1968
record low maximums for 13 november:
kchs 51 2013
kcxm 49 1920 and previous
ksav 50 1920 and previous

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Freeze warning until 10 am est this morning for gaz087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.

Coastal flood advisory from 6 am to 11 am est this morning for
gaz117-119-139-141.

Sc... Freeze warning until 10 am est this morning for scz040-042>045-
047>052.

Coastal flood advisory from 6 am to 11 am est this morning for
scz048>051.

Lake wind advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for scz045.

Marine... Gale warning until 11 am est this morning for amz350-352-354-
374.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz330.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi63 min NNE 16 G 24 36°F 64°F1024.5 hPa
41033 38 mi85 min NNE 23 G 33 38°F 1023.9 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 41 mi43 min NNE 25 G 31 47°F 71°F7 ft1021.4 hPa (+1.3)43°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 42 mi93 min N 17 40°F 1022 hPa (+1.0)34°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA8 mi97 minN 13 G 2010.00 miFair34°F22°F63%1023.7 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA15 mi40 minNNE 1410.00 miFair32°F21°F66%1025.1 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC23 mi38 minVar 22 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy73°F69°F89%1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4SW5SW3W3S3SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmS5S4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4W3CalmCalmN5N3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel
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Wed -- 02:14 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:22 AM EST     9.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:46 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:44 PM EST     7.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.20.30.62.14.36.68.39.197.96.24.32.410.61.53.25.16.77.77.97.35.9

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:44 AM EST     2.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:13 PM EST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:12 PM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-1.7-1.1-0.11.22.22.41.91.20.3-0.8-1.8-2.2-2.1-1.7-0.90.31.421.81.30.6-0.2-1.2

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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.