Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dutch Island, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:21PM Saturday February 27, 2021 10:24 PM EST (03:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 940 Pm Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog late this evening, then areas of dense fog.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less in the evening.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ300 940 Pm Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail through Sunday. A cold front will push offshore through Monday with another storm system impacting the region by mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dutch Island, GA
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location: 31.98, -81.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 280242 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 942 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail through Sunday. A cold front will push offshore through Monday with another storm system impacting the region by mid-week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Late this evening: No notable changes to the forecast with this update. So far marine fog does not appear to have developed based on web cams and coastal observation sites. We have seen a few coastal observations in Beaufort County report low ceilings, which can be a precursor to fog development but nothing yet. Previous discussion continues below.

Early this evening: At sunset we were left with a mix of layer clouds following a very warm afternoon. In fact we highs on the order of 15+ degrees above normal including a new record at of 86 at KSAV. For the overnight, the primary forecast concern is the potential for dense fog to develop over the coastal waters and attempt to spread onshore. Overall we are in a weakly forced pattern, so there isn't much support for showers. However, a few model solutions do show isolated showers and in the warm advection flow it can't be completely ruled out. For now though, we have kept the forecast dry. Concerning fog, conditions are fairly conducive with the presence of a warm/moist airmass. It isn't perfect though, given that there will be a mix of clouds at various layers moving through overhead which will prevent good radiational cooling conditions and that no fog is currently ongoing which casts doubt on model solutions that currently depict it. SREF probabilities are extremely high, but they have been all day and there has no been no fog. Following the model consensus, the best chance for significant fog will be along the immediate coastline, especially after midnight. The forecast has areas of dense fog in these locations, and there is a good chance a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed in these coastal areas. Lows should bottom out in the low 60s for most areas, not too much cooler than normal highs for late February.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sunday: A summer-like synoptic pattern will hold into Sunday with the region positioned along the western fringes of subtropical high pressure centered well out in the Atlantic. Even though low-level thicknesses and H8 temperature change are progged to change little between Saturday and Sunday afternoons, the 27/12z statistical guidance has trended slightly cooler likely due to possible influences of lingering sea fog and stratus in the morning and a slightly stronger southerly flow which will help advect cooler temperatures from off the Atlantic. This cooling influence will be observed the strongest roughly along/east of I-95 with the coldest conditions being confined to the beaches. Highs look to range from the lower-mid 80s inland with lower-mid 60s at the beaches. There is higher than normal uncertainty in temperatures over the coastal corridor given it is not entirely clear how the sea fog/stratus scenario will unfold during the day. This uncertainty is highlighted by a very large spread in the various ensemble plume diagrams at the various coastal guidance sites from KCHS south to KSSI and KBQK. Although measurable rainfall is unlikely with forecast sounding showing a pronounced mid-level dry pocket, a few transient light sprinkles can not be completely ruled out, especially in the morning. Dry conditions will persist into much of Sunday night with lows dropping into the lower 60s--well above normal for late February. There will be a continued risk for sea fog/stratus, especially at the coast.

Monday: The subtropical ridge aloft will begin to weak Monday as northern stream shortwave crosses the Great Lakes and southern stream upper low traverses northern Texas. This will allow a cold front to move across the Southeast U.S. bringing cooler temperatures and some rainfall to the area. Model cross- section show very little in the way of deep-layered forcing for ascent as the cold front drops to southeast which implies the subtropical ridging will still have some of an influence even as it retreats to the south and east. Some low-level forcing juxtaposed with a tongue of PWATs 1.25-1.50" is noted just ahead of the front surface suggesting the most of the rain will be associated with the front itself. Pops 60-70% still look on track for this event with a corridor of slightly higher pops around 80% confined to the areas adjacent to the CSRA and Southern Midlands. Highs will still reach in the mid-upper 70s prior to FROPA. The system looks to have a split front vertical structure with the H8 front (denoted by a sharp thermal gradient) lagging by about 6 hours. A secondary area of rain could accompany this feature and 40-50% pops were held into the night time period to account for this. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, warmest along the Georgia coast.

Tuesday: It will be considerably cooler and wetter Tuesday as cold air damming (CAD) begins to take shape across the Carolinas into eastern Georgia as a potent southern stream shortwave approaches from the west. The pattern is reminiscent of a hybrid Miller-B as low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico approaches the CAD region and then redevelops off the Georgia/South Carolina coast along the west wall of the Gulf Stream. Highs will warm into the mid-upper 50s, but these may prove to be too warm as diabatic processes resulting from rain falling into the CAD could drive temperatures even cooler. NBM pops 40-70% Tuesday look reasonable, highest over Southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Wet conditions will linger into Wednesday before CAD rapidly breaks down and low pressure pulls away from the region. Another storm system could impact the area late in the week, but there is little agreement on timing/impacts. The risk for tstms looks to low to mention at this time given the limited instability expected. Temperatures will likely be near to above normal through at least Thursday night before possibly dropping below normal late week.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. We begin the period with VFR conditions at both KCHS and KSAV, though there is good support for IFR ceilings and possibly even fog later tonight. Fog and low stratus is expected to develop offshore across the coastal waters later tonight and then attempt to spread onshore. There is good confidence in IFR ceilings at both KCHS and KSAV, but fog is more questionable. Perhaps the best chance for significant fog is at KCHS where low-level wind trajectories will be more favorable. We have handled the potential for a period of IFR visibility at KCHS in a TEMPO group from 09-13z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by at least late morning and remain that way through 00z Monday. Winds could be a little breezy with frequent gusts to almost 20 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in late night/early morning fog and stratus through Sunday night and due to low clouds/showers on Monday, possibly into Monday night especially at KSAV. Additional restrictions from low clouds and more showers then a good possibility by Tuesday night and into Wednesday as another storm system impacts the area. VFR should then return by Thursday.

MARINE. Tonight: Southerly winds should top out around 10 knots through the overnight with seas mainly in the 2-3 ft range. The main forecast concern is for the development of dense fog and very low stratus. We haven't had any fog through the day and into the evening, despite model guidance that supported it during that time. We have shifted fog development a little more into the evening with patchy fog. However, by around midnight and thereafter, dense fog is expected and highlighted in the forecast. The dense fog is expected to impact all waters including the Charleston Harbor. Dense Fog Advisories could be needed.

Sunday through Tuesday: Southerly winds will persist into Monday as the region remains along the western side of Atlantic high pressure. A combination of increasing winds and seas could necessitate a Small Craft Advisory by Monday, mainly Georgia offshore and Charleston nearshore waters. Winds will turn offshore Monday night as a cold front pushes offshore, the quickly turn north to northeast as cold air damming develops across the Carolinas and Georgia. Winds could reach as high as 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Tuesday when the pressure gradient pinches the greatest. Conditions could improve by Thursday as low pressure pulls away and cold air damming breaks down.

Sea fog: Warm, moist air advecting across the cold shelf waters could promote the formation of sea fog through Monday morning. Vsbys could drop below 1 NM at times in the fog. It remains to be seen how widespread the sea fog will become, but guidance suggests widespread vsbys less than 1 NM could occur given the favorable low-level wind regime. The fog should mix out sometime Monday morning as a winds increase just ahead of the cold front. Dense Fog Advisories could be needed at various times Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

SUNDAY 2/28

KCHS 86 1962 KSAV 86 1962 KCXM 82 1944

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . BSH SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . BSH MARINE . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi55 min Calm G 0 63°F 56°F1024.2 hPa
41033 38 mi77 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 58°F1022.7 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 41 mi35 min S 7.8 G 7.8 65°F 63°F2 ft1023.3 hPa (+1.5)65°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 42 mi85 min S 7 65°F 1023 hPa (+1.0)64°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA8 mi29 minSSE 410.00 miFair65°F63°F91%1023.3 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA15 mi32 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F64°F87%1023.5 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC23 mi30 minN 09.00 miFair66°F64°F94%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW3SW3CalmCalmW4SW8S7SW7S5SE6S8SE8S10S7SE6SE4CalmSE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E5S8SE9S8SE8S5SE7SE5SE5SE4S4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W5NW6W4W6NW4W4W9S7SE7S6S4S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel
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Sat -- 02:01 AM EST     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:10 AM EST     9.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:28 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:33 PM EST     8.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.5-0.3-1.1-0.41.54.16.58.298.67.25.12.80.7-0.7-0.60.72.95.37.28.28.37.35.5

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sat -- 02:48 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 05:33 AM EST     2.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     2.41 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-1.9-1.10.31.72.62.62.11.30.1-1.2-2.2-2.5-2.4-1.7-0.512.12.42.11.40.6-0.6-1.7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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