Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isle of Hope, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Through This Evening: GOES-E visible satellite imagery show the cumulus field is becoming more agitated with time with isolated convection beginning to pop as convective temperatures are reached. Meanwhile, an area of scattered showers/tstms extending from south-central Georgia into parts of Southeast Georgia south of the Altamaha River will cross into parts of Candler, Evans, Tattnall, Long and McIntosh Counties by mid-afternoon.
The greatest coverage of showers/tstms are still expected over Southeast Georgia where the best 850 hPa theta-e is found. Pops 20-40% still look on target through the evening hours.
Thermodynamics are not overly supportive of severe weather, but an isolated strong to marginally severe tstm can not be completely ruled out, especially where updrafts can become enhanced near mesoscale boundary interactions.

Overnight: The risk for an isolated shower/tstm will persist through the overnight hours as weak shortwave embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft passes through. Instability will be waning as the night progresses, but there should be enough for a tstm or two. Pops 20-30% were highlighted through the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Wednesday: A closed low situated over the Mid-west will continue to slowly shift northeastward and gradually transition into an elongated trough. Coming down to the surface, an associated frontal boundary will meander well offshore over the Atlantic waters. With cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon with the sea breeze shifting onshore. Light south- southwesterly flow will persist through the day with possible becoming a bit gustier in the afternoon sea breeze. Highs are forecast to be around normal with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s, and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s (with low 70s along the beaches).

Thursday and Friday: Finally this elongated trough will shift off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday afternoon and allow for strong upper- lvl ridging to build over the Deep South. At the surface, high pressure should govern the overall pattern for Thursday and Friday. Dry and quiet weather will settle over the region and temperatures will be near average to above-average.
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday and low to mid 90s on Friday
Something to look out for
with low 70s and high RH values, heat index values could reach just around 100F on Friday afternoon making it feel quite unbearable outside.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper-lvl ridging will govern the overall pattern for the Southeast through the weekend, with zonal flow in place as well.
There is some indication of a shortwave trough traversing through the zonal flow on Sunday. In general, it stays dry and quiet through the weekend with possible showers returning on Sunday evening ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.
Temperatures will be above average for this time of year, with highs climbing into the low 90s. Combined with high RH values, heat index values will reach into the mid to upper 90s through the period ..making it feel very much like summer through the period.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
13/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: VFR. Isolated showers/tstms could develop around the terminals from late afternoon through mid-evening, but confidence on impacts is too low for a mention. Some shallow ground fog could develop at both sites early Wednesday morning.
Again, no meaningful impacts are expected at this time.

KSAV: Convection is expected to move into/develop over interior Southeast Georgia over the next few hours. Some of this activity could get close to the KSAV airport. VCTS was highlighted 21-00z to account for this. Some last minute adjustments may be needed pending radar trends at issuance time. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible on Wednesday with the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms, otherwise prevailing VFR.

MARINE
Tonight: Southwest winds will prevail tonight. Speeds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions look to remain quite through the period and well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
South southwesterly flow should persist through the period with winds generally 10 to 15 kts, or less. Seas will average 2 to 4 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.